GDP will grow by 1.7% by the end of 2025%

In 2025, the economy will grow by only 1.7%, according to the Izvestia consensus forecast. Experts' expectations have become more modest, as the dynamics for the first quarter turned out to be lower than expected — Rosstat estimated a three-month increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.4%.

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The main factor of uncertainty for the Russian economy remains geopolitics — the structure of the economy will depend on the vector of its development. Negotiations between Moscow, Washington and Kiev are increasing tensions, explained Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam.

"The breakdown of negotiations may lead to new tough sanctions and even secondary duties, which may be increased if the actions of the United States and the EU synchronize. In addition, there may be an escalation of hostilities. This could worsen the terms of foreign trade for Russia, requiring further increases in military spending, widening budget deficits, and tightening monetary policy. Given the already observed slowdown in the economy, this could shift it from a "soft landing" mode to a recession," she said.

At the same time, high key and inflation remain significant internal economic risks. Nevertheless, the Central Bank will not rush to lower the rate. For the regulator, inflation risks, as well as threats to financial stability, remain largely underestimated, independent expert Andrei Barkhota believes. Although price growth slowed in April, it still remains above 10% in annual terms.

Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:

A bid for a key: GDP will grow by 1.7% by the end of 2025