The Baltic is strong: a new zone of tension is brewing near Russia
The largest recent incident occurred in the Baltic Sea. The Estonian armed forces tried to detain a Gabonese-flagged oil tanker, which they considered part of the Russian "shadow fleet." A fighter of the Russian Aerospace Forces was able to stop the capture. Experts believe that similar situations may happen again in the future. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Ramming and landing
The incident in the Gulf of Finland occurred on May 14. According to published data, the Estonian Navy, together with NATO aircraft, demanded that the Jaguar tanker leave neutral waters in order to detain it later. The vessel was suspected of allegedly belonging to the Russian "shadow fleet" and transporting sanctioned oil. It is known that the ship was sailing under the flag of Gabon, among the crew were four Russians, as well as 17 Indians and Burmese.
The video, which was filmed by the sailors, shows that the Estonians threatened the ship with a battering ram and tried to land troops. Tallinn was involved in the provocation by the Rayu patrol boat, the Kurwitz patrol ship, an amphibious helicopter, and the PZL M28 aircraft. In addition, MiG-29 aircraft of the Polish Air Force participated in the operation. At the same time, the ship ignored the attacks and continued to move towards the port of Primorsk, the capture attempts stopped when a Russian Su-35 fighter appeared on the horizon.
As a result, the tanker, accompanied by a tugboat, reached its destination safely. Estonia accused Russia of violating its airspace after the incident, and the country's Foreign Ministry summoned the Charge d'affaires of the Russian Federation, who was handed a protest note. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, Margus Tsakhna, called the incident a deplorable incident, Moscow did not comment on Tallinn's accusations in any way.
Have you reached the bottom
The countries of the Baltic region have been interfering with maritime navigation for quite some time. Incidents involving underwater cables connecting the Baltic republics to Scandinavia are traditionally cited as one of the reasons. The biggest incident occurred in October 2023, when the Balticconnector gas pipeline was damaged. Officials then immediately started talking about the "Russian trace," although it later turned out that the accident was caused by a Chinese vessel dragging an anchor along the seabed.
In addition, for a long time, attempts have been made in the region to prevent the so-called Russian shadow fleet, which supplies energy resources. It is known that in mid-May, the European Union agreed on the 17th package of sanctions. More than a hundred tankers were also subject to restrictions. In Russia, these measures are invariably called useless. "We imagine what we will do after the announcement of these sanctions, how we will minimize their consequences," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
As a result, several scandalous incidents have occurred recently. In December last year, Finland detained the tanker Eagle S, which was en route from St. Petersburg to Egypt. The vessel was then suspected of involvement in the damage to the Estlink 2 underwater cable, and the Helsinki court arrested not only the vessel, but also its cargo. After a long trial, however, it turned out that the ship had nothing to do with the accident, and together with the crew members, he left the country.
Further in January, Sweden arrested the vessel Vezhen, which was en route from Russia, and it was also suspected of damaging the cable. Later, Stockholm reported that there had been no sabotage in this case either. "It was found that the cliff was facilitated by a combination of weather conditions, deficiencies in equipment and navigation skills. Based on the interrogations conducted and analyzed seizures, as well as an inspection of the scene, we can say with confidence that this was not a deliberate accident," the Swedish prosecutor's office said.
Estonia has also been developing its anti-Russian measures for a long time. At the end of 2023, the Ministry of Defense of the republic prepared a bill that allowed the stopping and inspection of vessels outside the territorial waters of the country. In September 2024, the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, Andrus Merilo, announced that Tallinn, together with Finland, was considering a plan to completely block the Baltic Sea "if there is any threat from Russia." "Militarily, this can be done, we are moving in this direction," he noted.
In April of this year, Estonia detained the oil tanker Kiwala under the flag of Djibouti for the first time. The vessel was sailing from the Indian port of Sikka to Ust-Luga, part of the route passed along the territorial waters of the Baltic Republic. It was reported that 40 violations were found during the inspection, most of them related to documentation. Two weeks later, Tallinn announced the elimination of the claims and released the ship.
After the current incident, a serious scandal broke out in Estonia. Local media and social media are actively discussing why an entire naval force could not cope with one civilian tanker. In response to the claims, Interior Minister Igor Taro noted that Tallinn lacks opportunities "on land and at sea." The head of the General Staff of the defense forces, Vakhur Karus, complained that for the first time Moscow had demonstrated its readiness to protect shipping in the Baltic.
Russian officials have not commented on the current incident, but they have repeatedly stated that the actions of NATO countries are destroying the global maritime trade system. For example, former Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Chairman of the Maritime Board Nikolai Patrushev noted that the alliance countries are trying to paralyze the work of ports in the Leningrad and Kaliningrad regions. "Westerners are also using terrorist methods in their efforts to weaken Russia," he stressed.
What the experts say
Vladimir Shapovalov, Deputy Director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State University, calls the incident in the Baltic Sea an escalation to a new level.
— We see that a serious threat to navigation is being created. Unfortunately, our opponents are expanding their tools, turning to outright piracy. I think that such situations can be repeated, not only in the Baltic, but also in other parts of the world. On the positive side, I note that Russia has demonstrated its willingness to deal with violations. There is a possibility that there will be fewer people willing to escalate the situation now," he notes.
Vsevolod Shimov, Adviser to the president of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies, recalls that there have already been attempts to stop and inspect the vessels of the so-called gray fleet.
— All this can be considered a rehearsal for a full-fledged naval blockade of Russia. The possibility of closing the Baltic Sea has long been discussed in the West. After joining the alliance of Sweden and Finland, NATO controls almost the entire coast, builds up its positions here and conducts regular exercises. Russian shipping is being hindered in various ways under far-fetched pretexts of threats to the underwater infrastructure. In general, the Baltic Sea region is currently the hottest spot on the map of Europe after Ukraine, and it is here that a new conflict is most likely to arise," he emphasizes.
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