Germany has classified the discussion of the supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine. What you need to know

The German government has classified information about the supply of any weapons to Ukraine, including long-range Taurus missiles. The new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said he would not say whether a decision had been made to transfer them. Why Berlin refused to discuss this topic and what the supply of missiles will affect is in the Izvestia article.

Why is Germany hiding information?

• In Germany, they claim that the secrecy regarding the supply of Taurus is caused by a reluctance to provide details that the Russian military can use. The German Ministry of Defense believes that information on the number and dates of deliveries will allow preemptive strikes on railway trains that will arrive in Ukraine. Germany had previously practiced such a regime of silence when it carried out the first military supplies to Ukraine. However, in the future, the authorities abandoned this practice and began to report on supplies as openly and in detail as possible so that German citizens could assess their volumes. One of the proponents of the open approach was the current Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

• At the same time, analysts are inclined to believe that the main reason why Germany classified arms shipments is concerns about possible discontent over the transfer of Taurus to Ukraine. If these missiles are handed over, protests will begin in the Bundestag, both from opposition parties and those belonging to the governing coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD). They were the ones who opposed the transfer of Taurus in the previous government of Olaf Scholz, and the new chairman of their faction, Matthias Mirsch, has already opposed this step. The discord over Taurus threatens the collapse of the coalition that was just created with great difficulty and the resignation of Merz in the status of the shortest-reigning chancellor in history.

• The Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left Party also do not support the shipment of the Taurus to Ukraine. The three opposing parties agree on this issue, and government circles in both Germany and the entire European Union would react extremely negatively to their rapprochement. Last year, Merz's attempt to get closer to the AFD on the topic of illegal migration almost cost him his political career. Now that there is the slightest risk of AFD entering the mainstream, the Merz government will do its best to prevent this, without giving up its own goals.

• The number of missiles delivered will be a key issue in the transfer of Taurus to Ukraine. The reaction of political parties in Germany depends on this. Criticism can be caused by either too large a volume of missiles transferred, or too small. Various parties and their representatives in the Bundestag will have the opportunity to make claims both about the costs incurred and about the decline in their own security. But so that the opponents of the transfer of the Taurus could not specifically substantiate their dissatisfaction, the German government wants to hide the statistics related to the Taurus.

• An attempt to conceal the supply of long-range missiles is nothing new in the current conflict. In the past, the United States, Great Britain and France have already resorted to tactics when Ukraine experimentally launched their shells, tested their effectiveness, and only then the supplies were officially announced. The fact that the country was providing military assistance became known after the fact, when further discussion of this already became meaningless.

What are the Taurus missiles capable of?

• In terms of their characteristics, Taurus is slightly superior to similar SCALP missiles from France and Storm Shadow from the UK. German shells are more accurate, with a range of 500 km versus 300 km for their counterparts. The Taurus can have a penetrating warhead that uses a particularly strong rod. It is capable of piercing the ground and partially piercing concrete. If the warhead uses a retarder, the explosion occurs underground.

Friedrich dvoliky: the future German Chancellor wants to supply Kiev with Taurus missiles

Merz's decision is not supported by his junior coalition partners.

• The Taurus also has an option with an electromagnetic warhead. When a rocket is launched from the air, a special generator generates pulses that disable electronics both on the ground and in the air. The launch of the Taurus from earth can be difficult to track, as the rocket fits completely into a conventional marine container and is easily unloaded from it to bring it into combat condition. It is capable of flying at low altitudes, skirting the terrain, but it does not reach supersonic speed.

Will Taurus have an impact on the front

• The impact that Taurus missiles can have on the situation at the front depends on the number of them that Ukraine will receive. Experts believe that Germany will transfer no more than a hundred shells and this volume will not affect Ukraine's military potential in any way. Germany's supplies will only be enough to maintain its current combat capability, but not to achieve superiority over the Russian armed forces. This has already been confirmed by the supply of other long-range missiles, which ultimately had no effect on the overall situation. The countries that provide Ukraine with long-range missiles do not actually have the goal of achieving a fundamental turning point in the conflict, as it is more beneficial for them to continue it rather than end it.

• Given how the Russian air defense forces have already been able to suppress the SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles, defeating the Taurus will also be a feasible task. Experts note that the Russian military has the means to destroy the Taurus — we are talking about such installations as the S-400, Bug, Pantsir and others. The most effective method of dealing with Taurus will be tracking these missiles before launch during transportation on the ground or in warehouses. After the first successful defeats of the missile, Russian specialists will have the opportunity to study its design and guidance system in more detail in order to further connect electronic warfare systems.

When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:

• military expert Yuri Knutov;
• military columnist Viktor Litovkin.