What will the implementation of the EU gas roadmap lead to? Analysis

The European Union announced plans to abandon Russian gas regardless of the outcome of the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, and even named a deadline by the end of 2027. Against the background of these statements, the price of gas on world markets jumped, and the leaders of several countries expressed doubts about the realism of the plan. Whether Europe will be able to abandon Russian gas and what price it will have to pay for it is in the Izvestia article.

Difficulties with the adoption of the ban

• The European Union expects that current contracts for Russian gas supplies will be terminated by the end of 2025, and long—term agreements by the end of 2027. The measures taken by the EU will also be directed against Russian oil and uranium. At the same time, the cessation of gas transit from Russia through Ukraine and the outflow of American liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asian markets forced European countries to switch to Russian LNG.

• Hungary and Slovakia are the main opponents of the ban on Russian gas in Europe, so the European Union will not be able to implement measures in the format of sanctions: this will require the consent of all participating countries. Instead, the EU wants to introduce a ban as a trade measure, for which the support of most states is sufficient.

Forbidden spot: The European Parliament will support the abandonment of Russian gas from 2027

The new sanctions will hit the economies of the Union countries and ordinary consumers.

There is no clear mechanism

• The European Commission will force European companies to disclose details of contracts for the supply of Russian gas, as well as impose a ban on current purchases of fuel from Russia and long-term contracts. Representatives of the gas industry questioned the legality of the ban on Russian fuel. The roadmap presented by Europe does not explain how countries will reimburse the necessary amounts of energy in the event of a cessation of trade with Russia.

• The EU expected to increase supplies of American LNG in 2027, but amid the complications of relations with the administration of US President Donald Trump and the imposed trade duties, the United States no longer looks like a reliable ally of Europe. Qatar, Canada, Australia and even Africa may become other possible gas suppliers to the EU. But no one will be able to offer Europe the same attractive price for energy resources.

Damage to Russia at the expense of Europeans

• The cold winter forced the EU to empty its gas storage facilities and now Europeans are forced to buy fuel at higher prices. The fact that on May 8, the European Parliament voted to relax gas storage rules, which will reduce the target level of reserves by November from 90% to 83%, and thereby ease the burden on the budget of the bloc's members, also shows how much gas costs are hitting European countries.

Show trial: Lithuania threatens Russia and Belarus with sanctions

The Balts are pushing their neighbors to escalate the conflict

• Hungary and Slovakia will suffer the greatest damage from abandoning Russian gas, which, due to their geographical location, will find themselves at the very end of the supply chain and will have to pay extra for gas transportation through other countries. Hungary has already estimated that its energy import costs will increase by 1.5 billion euros.

• Residents of European countries will remain hostages of such a policy. Currently, the EU has managed to reduce the supply of Russian pipeline gas by two thirds, but at the same time, the Europeans are covering the need for fuel with supplies of liquefied natural gas from Russia. In 2025 alone, the European Union purchased 6 million tons of Russian LNG worth more than €2.5 billion.

• The EU uses the joint purchasing power of the bloc to reduce the cost of fuel for the union countries, but it has not yet been possible to reach an agreement with potential suppliers designed to replace Russian gas. The EU's announcement of plans to phase out Russian gas led to a 7% jump in fuel prices on the markets, but after investors realized that Europe had no reliable alternative to Russian fuel, stock prices dropped.

How will it affect Russia

• The aim of the measures proposed by the European Union is to hit the Russian economy. But Europe's rejection of Russian LNG, although it may negatively affect manufacturing companies, will not affect the Russian budget. LNG exports are not subject to duties and there is no direct revenue for the budget.

• In the most unfavorable scenario, reducing pipeline gas supplies will be a sensitive measure for Russia and its gas industry, because companies will have to reduce production volumes. In this case, the state budget may lose income from export duties, which amounts to 30% of the market value.

• There is still a prospect of Russian pipeline gas returning to Europe. The foreign press has repeatedly reported on the US interest in acquiring the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was preserved after underwater attacks on the infrastructure, in order to gain control over the volumes of gas supplied from Russia to the EU. Earlier, the Kremlin allowed the resumption of fuel sales to EU countries if the new owner takes control of the gas network between Russia and Europe.

During the preparation of the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• Alexey Grivach, Deputy General Director for Gas Projects at the National Energy Security Fund;
• Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund.