Swing with wheels: car sales fell by another quarter in April

Last month, the Russian car market showed mixed dynamics. Compared to March, sales of new cars increased significantly, but at the same time, there is a significant drop in demand for cars compared to April last year. At the same time, there is an increase in the share of models of new brands. Dealers and experts call the market situation difficult, and a more or less stable growth in demand for new cars is expected no earlier than the second half of the year. The details are in the Izvestia article.

Up and down

Last month, 102,107 new cars were sold in Russia, which is 28% higher than in March. Such data is provided by the analytical agency Autostat, based on the number of issued EPTS. This is the best result since the beginning of the year, but it is still 25.5% worse than the results of April 2024. A total of 349,000 new cars were sold in Russia from January to April, which is 27% lower than in the same period last year.

The drop occurs against the background of a decrease in the weighted average price of a new car, experts say. As Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat, stated during the online conference "Autostat Operational", compared to the same period last year, it decreased by 8% and currently amounts to 3.11 million rubles.

— This does not mean that cars have become cheaper: the sales structure has changed. Customers began to purchase cheaper models. In addition, the share of expensive models supplied by alternative imports has decreased. This is exactly what led to a decrease in the weighted average price of a new car," explained Sergey Tselikov.

Another trend that experts note is related to an increase in the share of new or "reanimated" brands in the sales structure. We are talking about such brands as Belgee, Solaris, Moskvich, Evolute, Knewstar, Xcite, AmberAuto, as well as Sollers pickups. According to Sergey Tselikov, in April they accounted for 8.8% of all cars sold, which is the best indicator for all time of observations. The entry of Tenet brand models into the market will further increase this figure, he believes.

Also, according to Autostat, the share of models powered by alternative energy sources increased to 5% in April. Electric cars account for 0.8% of them, while rechargeable hybrids account for 2.4%. The remaining 1.8% are hybrid models that do not provide for the possibility of charging from an external power source.

In addition, stocks of "last year's" cars are gradually decreasing on the market. If in February the share of 2025 models was only 8%, then by the end of April, according to Sergey Tselikov, it increased to 34%.

Leaders and outsiders

The Lada brand retained the title of leader in the Russian car market in April by a solid margin. Last month, 28,486 cars assembled in Tolyatti and Izhevsk were sold, accounting for almost 28% of the market. On the second line is the Haval brand, whose cars sold 12,925 copies in April. In third place is Chery with a score of 10,855 pieces. This is followed by Geely (6,664 cars) and Changan (4,621 units). 3,902 cars sold in April allowed the Belarusian brand Belgee to occupy the sixth position. Behind him are Jetour brands (3,165 cars), Exeed (2,881 units) and Omoda (2,619 cars). On the last line was the Solaris brand, which sold 2,298 cars — last month, the automaker from St. Petersburg entered the top ten most popular car brands for the first time.

Seven of the ten brands represented showed negative dynamics in April, according to Autostat. Omoda, Changan and Geely recorded the most serious decline — by more than 40% compared to April last year. Three brands turned out to be in the black — Jetour (+1.1%), Belgee (+29.9%) and Solaris (2.3 times growth), which is largely due to the effect of a low base last year.

At the same time, the drop in Geely sales is largely due to the growth in sales of the Belgee and Knewstar models (they are based on Geely cars — Izvestia), explains Sergey Tselikov. However, even if all three brands are added together, the decrease in Geely brand sales compared to last year is about 30%, he emphasizes.

In the "individual competition" in April, Granta still holds the lead - 12,970 cars sold last month. Lada Vesta has silver (7,099 cars). The Chinese Haval Jolion crossover sold 5,522 copies, which gave this model the third place. This is followed by the Chery Tiggo 7 Pro Max (4,129 units), and two "Nivas", Travel (3,127 units) and Legend (2,941 cars). The top ten most popular models also include Geely Monjaro (2,710 cars), Belgee X50 (2,705 cars), Haval M6 (2,607 units) and Lada Largus (2,259 units).

In the turbulence zone

In spring, there is traditionally an increase in customer interest in cars, says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine. Therefore, he sees nothing unusual in the 28% increase in new car sales in April compared with March. The worse thing is that this growth actually "spread out" for two months at once, he notes.

— Taking into account the fact that car sales practically did not increase in March, it turns out that the current 28% is an increase in both March and April. This gives reason to believe that in the future it is not necessary to count on a significant increase in sales of new cars "from month to month," he told Izvestia. According to the expert, positive trends in the car market may be noticeable only in the second half of the year.

Igor Morzharetto, partner of the Autostat agency, does not expect significant growth either. In his opinion, at best, it will be possible to talk about an increase in indicators relative to the previous month by 10-15%. At the same time, the dynamics is likely to be negative in relation to last year's result, he believes.

— By the end of May, you definitely should not expect any growth: a large number of days off does not contribute to the purchase of cars, — the expert believes.

Additional pressure on the market in the coming months will be exerted by a reduction in stocks of "last year's" models in dealers' warehouses, which may lead to an increase in the average cost of cars, the partner of Autostat notes.

— A significant part of the "last year's" cars are cars that were imported before the autumn recycling increase. As dealer inventories decrease, there will be more and more 2025 cars on sale that have already been cleared at new rates. Naturally, such cars will be more expensive," Igor Morzharetto said in an interview with Izvestia.

A surge, not a growth

At the moment, there are no signs of a steady recovery in the Russian car market, according to Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto. According to her, the 28% increase in sales in April compared to March rather reflects seasonal fluctuations.

— Year-on-year, the situation remains critical: sales in April fell by 25.5% compared to April 2024, and in the first four months of the year, the decrease was 25.4%. Most brands, including key players, are showing negative dynamics. And the growth of individual brands such as Solaris, Belgee and Jetour is explained by the effect of a low base or the replacement of departed Western manufacturers, but their contribution to total sales is insufficient to compensate for the general decline, she told Izvestia.

In her opinion, the current growth compared to the previous month looks like a temporary phenomenon, rather than the beginning of a recovery. The probability of maintaining monthly growth in the long term is extremely low, the expert believes.

— Structural changes are required to stabilize the market: restoration of supply chains, growth in the purchasing power of the population and long-term government support programs. Short-term improvements related to seasonal demand are possible. But sustained positive dynamics is impossible without an improvement in macroeconomic conditions," Irina Frank is convinced.

The key factors necessary to normalize the situation in the car market are the stabilization of inflation and the ruble exchange rate, the availability of loans, as well as the growth of real incomes of the population, the expert believes. The ability of automakers to increase production localization and solve problems with the supply of components also plays an important role. Government support in the form of preferential loans or subsidies can temporarily stimulate demand, but without system solutions its effect will be limited, Irina Frank notes.

So far, the market is showing a punctual recovery, rather than steady growth, Renat Tyukteev, Deputy General Director for New Car Sales at Avilon AG, agrees. It is still premature to talk about a full-fledged revival of the market, he believes.

— The main increase in sales in April was provided by corporate clients — large supplies for carsharing and corporate fleets. Retail demand is growing moderately and has not yet offset the overall decline. In May, due to the long holidays, we expect a natural decline in sales to 75-80 thousand vehicles, which is 20% lower than in April. Significant growth is also not expected in the second quarter," he shared his observations with Izvestia.

According to Renat Tyukteev, sales may increase in the second half of the year due to pent-up demand and optimistic expectations of a reduction in the key interest rate.