The economist predicted the ruble exchange rate for the summer

Exchange rates this summer will depend on several key factors. This opinion was expressed by Petr Shcherbachenko, an economist and associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, on Tuesday, May 6.

According to the expert, first of all, the exchange rate will be influenced by oil prices. If it remains in the range of $63-69 per barrel, the ruble may stabilize, he believes.

"Currently, oil is in a sideways trend, the price of June futures is rising. The price of June futures for Brent crude oil is $67.1, and WTI is $63.3. In a negative scenario, it should be noted that the decline in oil prices does not affect the ruble immediately, with a lag of one or two months," the economist explained in an interview with Lenta.Ru .

Shcherbachenko noted that the balance of imports and exports will continue to influence the exchange rate ratio. He explained that his surplus supports the ruble, but in the event of lower oil prices, there is a risk of a decrease in foreign exchange earnings to the budget, which may negatively affect the national currency.

In addition, the course can be influenced by geopolitics and sanctions, the expert warned. Another factor influencing the exchange rate is the seasonal demand for foreign currency due to tourism. In the summer, it may weaken the ruble a little, the economist believes.

"By June, the ruble is expected to remain in the range of 76-84 rubles per dollar, 88-96 rubles per euro and 10.8-11.8 rubles per yuan," concluded Shcherbachenko.

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In turn, Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told NSN that if oil prices fall to $45 per barrel due to the US-China trade war, Russia will benefit from the dollar exchange rate of 125 rubles to replenish the budget, but for now the Central Bank is taking a wait-and-see attitude, he noted.

The day before, Lazar Badalov, an associate professor at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics, admitted in an interview with Moscow 24 that in the summer of 2025, the dollar exchange rate could rise above 90 rubles, and the euro could reach 100.

The economist pointed to the high probability of a weakening of the ruble after the spring period, according to 360.ru .

On April 8, the Central Bank of Russia reported that the ruble strengthened in March due to a good trade balance and demand for ruble assets. At the same time, it is noted that due to the geopolitical situation and signals of maintaining tight monetary policy, the Moscow Exchange index showed negative dynamics at the end of the month.