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- I'm glad, but not very happy: Ukraine is preparing to vote on a resource deal with the United States
I'm glad, but not very happy: Ukraine is preparing to vote on a resource deal with the United States
On May 8, the Verkhovna Rada will consider a resource deal between Ukraine and the United States. So far, the contents of only one document are more or less known, and two additional agreements remain secret. On the eve of the vote, the building of the Ukrainian parliament was surrounded by barbed wire — the opposition believes that the authorities are afraid of riots. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The Foundation with a secret
Representatives of Kiev and Washington signed an agreement on U.S. access to Ukrainian minerals on April 30. It was reported that a joint investment fund will be created as part of the deal, which will be engaged in the extraction of rare earth metals, oil and gas. The Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Sviridenko was the first to comment on this event. According to her, the agreement is of an equal nature, aimed at a long-term and mutually beneficial partnership.
Later, the text of the agreement was published on the website of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers, as well as on the page of Verkhovna Rada deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak. On closer inspection, the conditions look far from equal. The fact is that the document says nothing about joint contributions. It is claimed that Ukraine will have to transfer 50% of the value of all new mining licenses to the fund, at the same time, no specific obligations have been stipulated for the United States.
It is emphasized that if the Americans provide any assistance to Ukraine in the future, it will be considered a contribution to the fund. At the same time, Washington will independently assess the amount of this assistance. Simply put, the United States will be able to transfer some weapons to Kiev, arbitrarily calculate its cost and name the resulting amount as its contribution.
In addition, the document states that the agreement has an advantage over Ukrainian laws and, in case of any contradictions, Kiev will have to change internal regulations. Finally, Ukraine guarantees the free conversion of hryvnia into dollars and the unhindered transfer of funds abroad without additional payments and delays. Temporary restrictions can only be imposed in the event of an economic crisis and in coordination with the United States.
The agreement also says nothing about security guarantees for Ukraine, although Kiev's representatives had previously insisted that they would not sign anything without such commitments from the United States. In general, there are many vague formulations in the agreement — it is unclear how the shares in the fund will be distributed, on what principles the management will be carried out, and much more. It is known that all these points are discussed in two additional protocols, the contents of which remain unknown.
Working in turbo mode
The agreement will be put to a vote in the Verkhovna Rada on May 8. There are many members of the parliamentary corps who are critical of the document. For example, Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a representative of the Golos faction, notes that if ratified, Ukraine will lose part of its budget revenues and will not be able to fully control its resources. "The lack of security guarantees for Ukraine from the United States in exchange for economic partnership is a critical moment in the current conditions," he says.
Another MP, Alexei Goncharenko (listed as a terrorist and extremist in Russia), complains that major government decisions are made on the sidelines. According to him, the Ukrainian parliament learned about the deal only from media reports. "Yes, we get access to capital, new technologies and Western management standards, but we pay for it with concessions: reduced control over mineral resources, tax losses and risks of conflict with European law," he argues.
Many people are not satisfied with the rush in this matter. Maria Ionova, a deputy and member of the Rada's foreign policy committee, is outraged that parliamentarians have been given only eight days to familiarize themselves with the most important interstate treaty. "The attempt to push through the agreement in a "turbo mode" is a disgrace and evidence that the authorities are unable to properly organize the process. Or it is done on purpose to then shift responsibility for the problems onto the parliament," she notes.
A lot of controversy has also arisen about two additional agreements, the content of which remains a mystery. Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal, during his speech in parliament, assured that these documents would be signed only after the ratification of the basic agreement by the deputies. But the representative of Eurosolidarity, Irina Gerashchenko, said that these papers had already been signed. "It is in them that all the technical details of our indefinite obligations are hidden," she stressed.
The Financial Times also reports that all three documents have been approved. According to journalists, Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko in Washington wanted to limit herself only to the basic agreement, but the Americans demanded to "certify everything or return home." A photo of Sviridenko and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant standing after the April 30 ceremony has also been widely distributed online. It is clear that they are holding three different signed documents in their hands.
It is clear that in this context, the May 8 vote will be difficult. Moreover, the Ukrainian parliament has previously demonstrated self-will. The most significant in this sense was the failure of the vote on the resolution on the extension of the powers of Vladimir Zelensky, which occurred in February. Apparently, the ruling team is now afraid of surprises again. The same Zelensky said that the United States should deprive those deputies who oppose the agreement of American visas.
In addition, before the voting day, the building of the Verkhovna Rada in Kiev was surrounded by a high fence with barbed wire. Opinions on this issue are divided online. Some felt that the authorities were trying to protect the deputies from some hypothetical protesters in this way. Others have decided that the MPs are hinting at what awaits them in the future if they do not ratify the deal.
What the experts say
Denis Denisov, director of the Institute of Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that the Verkhovna Rada will approve the submitted document.
— I'm not expecting a sensation. The fact is that the future of relations between Ukraine and the United States will depend on the results of the vote, and it is unlikely that the parliament will decide to undermine them. At the same time, I would like to note that the deal in its current form looks very vague, with many abstract formulations. It is unknown who will be the main beneficiary, and how the fund will function. In many ways, this vote will be a symbolic gesture aimed at preserving relations with Trump," he says.
Vladimir Oleinik, a former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada, calls the published treaty a document of the era of colonialism.
— We are dealing with Ukraine's economic capitulation to the United States. Why does Kiev need this? Apparently, Zelensky secretly bargained for the preservation of his presidential powers, and recently we have not heard any statements about his illegitimacy. The second point is that Kiev will continue to receive some kind of assistance from the United States. If we talk about the real economic content, then it is very doubtful. In order to establish mining in Ukraine, it is necessary to dig mines, build mining and processing plants, this is a matter for decades and billions of dollars of investments. I doubt that it will come to that in any foreseeable future," he argues.
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