For the first time, the Ministry of Energy named trade wars as one of the main risks for Russia

In 2025 and the next three years, the main external risks for the Russian economy will be the expansion of trade wars, tougher sanctions and a slowdown in global GDP. This follows from the main parameters of the forecast of socio-economic development of Russia, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development. Among the internal dangers, the ministry attributed the imbalance of supply and demand, untimely transition to the reduction of interest rates.

Data Economics: Russia's GDP will be radically recalculated

Comparisons of indicators from different countries will lose a significant share of reliability due to the new calculation methodology.

For comparison, in September's forecast, the Ministry of Economic Development, in addition to the slowdown in global GDP and tight Central Bank policy, highlighted the shortage of personnel. The focus has shifted as the global economic environment has changed significantly over the past six months, with a new round of trade wars launched by the US.

The RF is not dependent on trade with the States - exports are more directed to Europe and Asia. But these actions will slow down the global GDP growth - as a result, the demand for energy resources will decrease. This is already reflected in quotations: since the beginning of the year, the cost of Brent has fallen by more than a quarter, to $59 per barrel.

As noted by the Ministry of Economic Development in its forecast, one of the main risks for the economy remains in the delay in reducing the rate. The rate has been held at a record high of 21% for six months now.

"The main reason why the Central Bank is not moving to a rapid and intensive reduction of the key one is the fear of a critical growth of the population's indebtedness. If interest rates become lower, the demand for loans will grow, while household incomes are not growing as fast. As a result, people may face problems with debt servicing," believes independent expert Andrei Barkhota.

Read more in the exclusive material of "Izvestia":

Dokladno out: Ministry of Economic Development for the first time called trade wars one of the main risks for the Russian Federation