Obstacle race: how the new Romanian presidential elections began

Presidential elections started in Romania on May 4 against the background of growing political tension. According to the first data from the country's Central Election Commission, a representative of the right-wing opposition, George Simion, took the lead. The previous campaign ended in a scandal — the authorities annulled the results of the first round and did not allow the favorite, right-wing candidate Calin Georgescu, to the final vote. The new election cycle is taking place amid an intensifying struggle between European elites and right-wing and Eurosceptic forces, which has already manifested itself in Germany and France. Commenting on the results of the first round, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolaku said that after the presidential election, Romania should continue to move forward with the EU and NATO.

New presidential elections in Romania

The presidential elections officially started in Romania on May 4. Almost 19,000 polling stations were opened in the country, and more than 18 million citizens had the right to cast their vote. Voting abroad began on Friday and took place for three days to ensure the participation of the diaspora in the voting.

There are 11 candidates running for the presidency of Romania — seven are nominated by political parties and alliances, four are participating as independents. According to pre-election polls, several figures have the highest chances of winning at once. Among them are the leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Unification of Romanians, George Simion, the former head of the Liberals and former speaker of the Senate, Crin Antonescu, supported by the ruling coalition, Bucharest Mayor General Nicusor Dan, former Prime Minister Victor Ponta, as well as center—right candidate Elena Lasconi.

According to the results of the first exit polls, George Simion is in the lead in the Romanian presidential election, followed by the candidate from the ruling coalition, Crin Antonescu, and Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan. The former gets 30%, Antonescu and Dan - 23% each.

The current presidential election is "absolutely invalid," said Diana Shoshoake, senator of the Romanian parliament, MEP and leader of the opposition S.O.S. Romania party, commenting on the situation in an interview with Izvestia. In her opinion, this election campaign violates the constitution and the foundations of the country's democratic system.

Moreover, the organization of the elections was accompanied by serious procedural violations, which have already been noticed by international observers, including the OSCE mission, according to Shoshoake.

— I don't think I've seen what's happening in Romania, even on the last island in Africa. I will not vote in elections organized by the same system that has been killing Romania for 35 years, killing democracy, without even allowing us to build it," she said.

George Simion is considered the main candidate of this campaign. He is known for the idea of uniting Romania and Moldova, while opposing the provision of military assistance to Ukraine. He is accused of having links with Russian intelligence, and because of alleged systematic anti-Ukrainian activities, the authorities in Kiev banned him from entering the country.

George Simion may inherit the electorate of Calin Georgescu, despite the fact that the latter is not considered a classic right-wing politician, Tatiana Bitkova, a leading researcher at the Europe and America Department of the INION RAS, notes in an interview with Izvestia.

— It should be borne in mind that Georgescu is not a traditional rightist. As you know, he appeared out of nowhere, and his statements became known only after the annulment of the results of the previous elections. We don't know how consistent he is as a right—wing radical - maybe it was a game. But nevertheless, they voted for him, and some of these votes may well go to Simion," the expert emphasizes.

However, according to Tatiana Bitkova, you should not expect to win in the first round.

— It is absolutely impossible that everything will be decided in the first round. Because although right—wing radical parties are very visible on the Romanian political scene today, those whom we call Eurooptimists still prevail in the Romanian political space," she says.

Political crisis in Romania

The planned presidential elections in Romania started back in November last year, but they ended in a scandal. At that time, the unexpected leader of the first round was the right—wing candidate Kalin Georgescu, who won 22% of the vote and left behind the favorite of opinion polls, Prime Minister Marcela Ciolaca. In the second round, he was supposed to be opposed by centrist Elena Lasconi, but it never came to a decisive vote.

Georgescu's program provoked a sharp reaction from Romanian and Western elites. The candidate openly criticized the EU and NATO, opposed military support for Ukraine and called for the restoration of relations with Russia. In addition, his tough stance on migration issues, the LGBT movement is recognized as extremist in the Russian Federation. – Ed.) and "green" energy has made him a figure that irritates the European establishment and the US administration.

Under the pretext of violations related to the TikTok campaign, the country's authorities annulled the election results and canceled the second round, a step that has no precedent in the history of modern Europe. Despite the absence of proven fraud, officials hinted at Russian interference to justify such a drastic decision.

The cancellation of the election caused a wave of outrage both inside and outside the country. Georgescu called the incident a "coup d'etat," and his rival Lasconi called it a "blow to democracy." Street protests have begun in Bucharest. The United States, where the new administration came to power, expressed concern: Vice President Jay D. Vance at the Munich Conference accused the EU of neglecting democratic principles, citing the situation in Romania as an example.

But the EU chose to remain silent, which in itself was a significant signal. The Romanian authorities continued their offensive: criminal cases were opened against Georgescu, and he was not allowed to participate in the next elections, saying that he posed a threat to democracy.

By the way, the current candidate, George Simion, in case of his victory, promised to publish transcripts of meetings of government agencies at which the issue of canceling the results of the November elections was decided, and declared his readiness to nominate Calin Georgescu for the post of prime minister.

Nicole Bodisteanu, an analyst at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, believes it is unlikely that the Romanian authorities will again resort to the same radical method of suppressing the opposition as in the case of Georgescu. In her opinion, a repeat of such a scenario would look too straightforward and would cause a resonance both inside and outside the country.

Nevertheless, the expert notes that the pressure on the opposition in Eastern European countries has not disappeared anywhere, but only takes on more veiled forms.

"As we see from the experience of neighboring countries, for example Moldova, suppression and exclusion from the election race occurs in other ways — by searching for various skeletons in the closet and other "black swans," Nicole Bodisteanu told Izvestia.

Fighting the opposition in Europe

Similar attempts to eliminate political competitors, especially among right-wing and non-systemic forces, are being observed in other European countries. One of the latest precedents was the decision of the German authorities to recognize the largest opposition party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), as right—wing extremist. This move provoked a wave of harsh criticism, including from the United States.

This is the first time in the modern history of Germany that such a measure has been applied to a parliamentary party with national representation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the events a manifestation of "disguised tyranny", accusing the German authorities of persecuting a popular party that opposes Berlin's immigration policy.

US Vice President Jay Dee Vance stated on the social network X that Alternative for Germany is the most representative force in East Germany, and compared what is happening to the restoration of the Berlin Wall, but by the hands of the German establishment. He stressed that unlike previous threats, the current ones come not from external forces, but from their own political elite.

The AfD party is indeed known for its harsh criticism of migration policy, opposes the supply of weapons to Ukraine and demands the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions that damage the country's economy. The party also insists on the need to resume dialogue with Moscow, which irritates the political mainstream.

In France, the situation is developing according to a similar scenario. The leader of the National Association, Marine Le Pen, who previously announced her intention to run for president in 2027, has become a defendant in a criminal case. The court sentenced her to four years in prison, two of which were suspended, as well as a fine of 100,000 euros and a five—year ban on holding elected office. Thus, Le Pen was effectively eliminated from the presidential race.

In addition, she was also restricted in her voting rights. These measures have provoked a wave of criticism from right-wing and national conservative politicians both in France and abroad. The situation has become especially resonant against the background of the fact that, according to recent opinion polls, Marine Le Pen remains the most popular politician in the country.