The most popular party may be banned in Germany. Analysis.
The German counterintelligence recognized the opposition "Alternative for Germany" as extremist. This status paves the way for the prohibition of AfG and the termination of its financing. Why the party is being persecuted, why it has been recognized as extremist right now, and what this will lead to — in the analysis of Izvestia.
What happened
• On May 3, the Federal Office for the Protection of the German Constitution, which performs counterintelligence functions, assigned the AfD party the status of a right-wing extremist. In 2023, the party's branches in Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia received this status, but now the AfD party is recognized as extremist throughout Germany.
• The AfD was classified as an extremist party based on an expert report stating that the party "seeks to exclude certain groups of the population from equal participation in society" and opposes the "free democratic order" of Germany. The AFD advocates withdrawal from the EU, limiting migration and restoring economic ties with Russia.
• Recognizing a party as extremist is a necessary step in order to ban it. Some German parliamentarians have already announced this intention of the AfD. The Bundestag, the Bundesrat or the federal government can file a request to ban the party to the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe. According to Article 21 of the German Constitution, parties that, by their goals or the behavior of their supporters, endanger the democratic system or the existence of the republic should be deprived of state funding.
There have been no cases of banning political parties in Germany since the middle of the last century: in 1952, the neo-Nazi Socialist Reichsparty suffered such a fate, and in 1956, the Communist Party of Germany, which at that time was already a member of the Bundestag.
What does this mean for AdH
• The status of an extremist party frees the hands of German counterintelligence: now it will be easier for it to justify wiretapping, secret audio recordings and videotapes of AFD members, perform financial monitoring and use informants. Party members had previously been able to become targets of surveillance, but such a permit was valid only in three federal states where the AfD was classified as extremist.
• The fact that counterintelligence recognized the party as right-wing extremist will not prevent it from participating in the elections. Currently, the AFD is the most popular political force in Germany: its rating has overtaken the leading parties of Germany and reached 25%. Perhaps for this reason, the party has been officially declared extremist right now: the AFD believes that this is political persecution and an attempt to criminalize the opposition.
• Experts consider the probability of banning AdH to be quite high. The party will be able to prevent this if it comes to an agreement with the ruling coalition: most likely, this will require the AFD to resign key positions and soften its rhetoric. On the other hand, it is precisely because of its position towards Muslim migrants that the AfD attracts the voices of the young and economically active population.
• In order to avoid the prohibition of AfG, a large public outcry and an increase in support from the population are needed. The party has already sent a legal warning to the German counterintelligence. The agency may withdraw its decision to declare the AFD extremist by the morning of May 5, otherwise the party will go to court.
The reaction in Germany
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recommended not to rush into banning ADHD. Opinions on this matter differed in the ruling coalition. If the leader of the SPD and the Greens insist on banning the AFD, the CDU called for treating it like an ordinary opposition party and not turning it into a "victim." Recognizing the AFD as extremist may be enough to prevent it from taking key positions in parliamentary committees, which the party can count on following the election results.
• The reaction of the German population to the recognition of the most popular party as extremist was mixed. Some see this as a clear political persecution, while others consider the accusations to be well-founded. At the same time, there is an opinion that the AFD ban will in no way affect the fact that German voters are increasingly sympathetic to right-wing ideas, thereby voting against the economic and political decisions of the ruling party.
• Not all federal states are ready to recognize the AfD as extremist. The five German states have never brought charges of extremism against the party. The Land offices for the protection of the Constitution in Brandenburg, North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria do not yet see any reason to change their line regarding the AfD. In these regions, the party is considered allegedly extremist and counterintelligence monitoring does not apply to all AFD officials and members.
The reaction of the USA and Europe
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the counterintelligence decision a "disguised tyranny" and the granting of powers to spy on the opposition. US Vice President James David Vance wrote on the social network X that the West is rebuilding the Berlin Wall by its actions, hinting that Russia is not at all a threat to European democracy.
• There was no reaction from European leaders to the situation. At the same time, the foreign press notes that the possible ban on the popular German opposition party continues a series of political scandals in EU countries, where successful oppositionists are also being ousted from power: Marine Le Pen in France and Kalyn Georgescu in Romania were previously subjected to political persecution. If the leading European country follows the path of "abolishing" a party that expresses the sentiments of a quarter of the population, this will be another evidence of the collapse of the EU's democratic values and the transformation of European countries into authoritarian states.
During the preparation of the material, Izvestia interviewed:
- political scientist Ivan Mezyuho;
- political scientist Inna Litvinenko;
- political scientist Vladimir Shapovalov.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
