The expert predicted the ruble exchange rate for May

In May, the ruble exchange rate will depend on external factors, primarily on the actions of the United States and China. The Russian currency strengthened by more than 4% against the dollar and yuan in April, but weakened against the euro. Arthur Meinhard, head of the Global Markets Analytical Department at Fontvielle, told Izvestia on May 1.

The strengthening of the ruble in April is not due to internal reasons, but to external ones. Firstly, the ruble lost 0.8% against the euro. Secondly, the dynamics of USD/RUB coincided with the fall of the DXY index, which reflects the strength of the dollar in the global market. Thirdly, the euro rose against the dollar by 4.3% in a month. This confirms that the situation depends on the trade confrontation between the United States and China.

According to him, internal factors usually play a lesser role in May due to reduced activity during the holidays.

"Historically, May is a quiet month for the ruble. If we exclude the anomalous year 2022, fluctuations in USD/RUB fell within the range of 4.5–2.4%, EUR/RUB — –3,6–2,8 %, and CNY/RUB — –4,1–3,9 %. This year, most likely, there will be no sudden movements," Meinhardt summed up.

Spring growth: why the ruble soared against the yuan

The Russian currency has strengthened by 20% in three months and continues to grow

On April 8, the Central Bank of Russia reported that the ruble strengthened in March due to a good trade balance and demand for ruble assets. At the same time, it is noted that due to the geopolitical situation and signals of maintaining tight monetary policy, the Moscow Exchange index showed negative dynamics at the end of the month.