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- Team business: the authorities assessed the first results from the increase in income tax
Team business: the authorities assessed the first results from the increase in income tax
The first results of the increase in income tax from 20% to 25%, which began to take effect this year, have become known. By the end of April, federal budget revenues under this item had increased by a third, to 780 billion rubles. However, by the end of the year, the indicators may not be so positive, since the companies' profits themselves risk sinking due to high rates. Whether it will be necessary to further adjust the tax system or introduce one—time fees is discussed in the Izvestia article.
Budget income from income tax in 2025
Since 2025, the income tax rate has increased from 20% to 25%. A fee of 8% is now sent to the federal budget instead of 3% (17% goes to the regional treasury).
As a result, in January 2025, the treasury received almost 140 billion rubles from income tax at the federal level, according to data from the analytical portal of the Federal Tax Service, which was studied by Izvestia. This is 32% more than the same indicator in 2024, and this growth is the sharpest since January 2022 (+65.2%, 65.3 billion was collected). However, then it could be attributed to the economic recovery after the pandemic.
The Federal Tax Service has not yet provided data for the first quarter, but they were disclosed by the Ministry of Finance on its Electronic Budget resource. According to the portal, which was studied by Izvestia, federal treasury income from income tax increased by 35% to 780 billion rubles by April 17, 2025.
Advance payments on the company's income tax are made to the budget during the year. If the organization's revenue is below 15 million rubles per quarter — once every three months, if higher — once every 30 days. The money must be paid by the 28th of next month. The figures by the end of April summarize the monthly and quarterly fees and reflect the situation with the filling of the treasury under this article.
The main reason for the increase in budget revenues under this item was an increase in the income tax rate, experts interviewed by Izvestia also believe. According to Dmitry Desyatnichenko, head of the Economics educational program at the RANEPA Presidential Academy in St. Petersburg, the percentage of the federal budget has also increased, which collectively affected the amount of revenue to the treasury.
The Federal Tax Service, in response to a request from Izvestia about the increase in revenues, reported that it was mainly due to an increase in the volume of dividend payments to Russian and foreign shareholders.
— An increase in the payment of fees on income received in the form of interest on state and municipal securities also affected. This is due to an increase in the Central Bank's key rate and the volume of the securities portfolio," the Federal Tax Service said.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Finance about the reasons for the increase in income tax receipts and forecasts for the year.
In January, the indicator grew due to the positive dynamics in corporate income, explained Vladimir Saskov, an expert at the Institute of Tax Management and Real Estate Economics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. According to Rosstat, in the first month of 2025, companies received a net profit (profit minus loss) in the amount of 5.4 trillion rubles. This is a 23% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
Also, the increase in revenue by a third may be explained by the fact that new income tax payers have appeared this year — we are talking about IT, Dmitry Desyatnichenko explained.
— The tax rate credited to the regional budget is still zero, and in terms of revenue to the federal budget, it has been increased to 5%. In addition, the list of companies that can apply reduced interest rates has been reduced," he said.
How tax increases affect businesses
Further income tax receipts to the budget will depend on the position of companies, that is, on how much they will be able to earn, the experts explained. So far, the situation is not the most favorable: in addition to changes in the tax system, the key rate remains at 21%, which makes the cost of borrowed capital too high, Dmitry Desyatnichenko noted.
— The rate level has a huge impact on business. In addition to the obvious problems with attracting capital and investments, the high key issue directly affects issues related to the accrual of penalties and penalties in civil and tax disputes, which also makes it difficult to do business," said Ruslan Kuleshov, CEO of the Clean Environment law firm, member of the Council of the MRO Delovaya Rossiya.
According to forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, GDP will grow by 2.5% this year, whereas last year it added 4.3%. In addition, the agency's estimates for 2025 are significantly more optimistic than the expectations of most analysts and the Bank of Russia.
— There are a number of factors that have a multidirectional effect on profit dynamics. On the one hand, government support programs and incentives for the growth of domestic production will continue to have a positive impact on the profitability of companies. But on the other hand, a high key rate, working in the opposite direction, will help reduce the marginality of many types of businesses," Dmitry Desyatnichenko believes.
This year, the government plans to double income tax revenues to the federal budget to 4.2 trillion. As previously explained to Izvestia in the Ministry of Finance, the plan takes into account not only an increase in the tax rate, but also an increase in the profits of organizations.
Receipts under this article during 2025 may well meet the forecasts of the authorities and even exceed them, according to Larisa Sorokina, associate professor at the Faculty of Economics of the Rudn University.
The growth of income tax receipts is especially important in the context of a federal budget deficit. In January–February 2025, it amounted to 2.7 trillion rubles (1.3% of GDP). According to the results of the first half of the year, the shortfall will be about 0.8–0.9% of GDP, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. An increase in tax revenues from the progressive scale and an increase in income tax may work in favor of a reduction, she added.
At the same time, the Ministry of Finance expected that by the end of 2025, the treasury deficit would amount to 1.2 trillion rubles. But there are risks to fulfilling this scenario due to lower oil prices and, as a result, commodity revenues — as a result, the shortage may triple, Izvestia wrote earlier.
Nevertheless, as Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov once again stated in April, the basic tax conditions will remain unchanged until 2030. Most likely, the rates will indeed remain the same, Ruslan Kuleshov from Delovaya Rossiya expects, but the scenario of changing the parameters of taxation in relation to minerals and excise duties is more likely.
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