Experts spoke about the impact of the key interest rate on the housing market in the Russian Federation

After the next meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key interest rate (maintained at 21%), Artur Akhmetov, head of Avito's Mortgage, Insurance and Transaction Services business, told Izvestia on April 25 about the current situation in the residential real estate market in Russia and shared forecasts on the dynamics of key indicators in the second quarter of 2025.

Thus, according to Avito Real Estate, the supply on the secondary housing market in Russia increased by 5% in the first half of April 2025 compared to the same period in March this year. The demand for ready-made apartments increased by 15% over the same period of time.

"The number of transactions on the secondary market, regardless of the payment method, will not change significantly, and the dynamics will be determined mainly by seasonal factors. Also, maintaining the key rate will not have a significant impact on the cost of finished housing. There may be fluctuations in the prices of real transactions in the range from 1% to 3%," said Artur Akhmetov, Head of the Mortgage, Insurance and Transaction Services business unit at Avito.

The share of mortgage transactions in the secondary market now stands at about 20%, whereas in the first half of 2024, mortgage penetration exceeded 30%. The average loan amount for secondary housing has decreased: at the beginning of 2025, it is about 2.6 million rubles.

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"We expect that in the regions where family mortgages for ready—made housing have been operating since April 1, the secondary market will receive a new growth driver in the coming months," he added.

According to him, the 6% rate will make the purchase of real estate more affordable, which may lead to an increase in demand and affect the cost of housing suitable for family mortgages in individual cities. At the same time, it is possible that the supply on the secondary market will be partially replenished with the objects of the owners, who, after the launch of the program, will return to the issue of selling housing.

In the current market conditions, developers are adjusting plans to bring new projects to market in favor of downsizing. It is also noted that a number of developers are starting to reduce installments.

In general, mortgages remain an important tool for financing the purchase of new housing: more than 50% of transactions on the primary market involve housing loans, mainly under the family mortgage program. Most likely, in the mass segment, developers will look for a balance between the volume of sales, the occupancy of escrow accounts and the cost of construction.

The day before, it was reported that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation kept the key rate at 21% per annum. In addition, the growth of domestic demand continues to significantly exceed the possibilities of increasing the supply of goods and services. At the same time, according to the regulator, the economy is slowly starting to return to the path of balanced growth.