Sovereignists versus Globalists: how will the Romanian presidential election be held?
Romania will hold presidential elections for the second time in a year. The first round will be held on May 4, and the second round will be scheduled for May 18, if necessary. The right-wing candidate George Simion, who is skeptical about Ukraine's support, is considered the favorite of the race. He is opposed by several pro-European politicians. Izvestia investigated the situation.
A global scandal
The Romanian presidential election is a series that has been running for several months. The first time the vote was held was in November. The sensational victory was won by the non-systemic right-wing candidate Kalin Georgescu. In the first round, he won 22% of the vote and advanced to the second round as the favorite, where centrist Elena Lasconi was to become his opponent. At the same time, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolaku, who was in the lead in all polls, took only third place.
Kalyn Georgescu
The Romanian and European leadership, as well as the Joe Biden administration, categorically disliked Georgescu's program. The fact is that the politician consistently criticized the EU and NATO, called Ukraine a fictional state, demanded to stop transferring weapons to Kiev, and offered to establish ties with Russia. In addition, Georgescu demonstrated his commitment to Orthodoxy, opposed same-sex marriage, migrants from the Middle East and the green transition in the energy sector.
In such circumstances, the Romanian authorities took an unprecedented step — they simply annulled the results of the vote and canceled the second round. The reason was found with great difficulty. The recount of votes did not reveal discrepancies with the official results, so some violations on the TikTok social network were cited as the reason, where Georgescu was allegedly given unaccounted-for preferences. At the same time, officials hinted that Russia had intervened.
After that, a major scandal broke out. Georgescu himself called the incident a coup, his opponent Lasconi declared a blow to democracy, and protest rallies were held in Bucharest. At the international level, representatives of the new American administration opposed this decision. During his speech in Munich, US Vice President Jay D. Vance criticized Europe for moving away from democratic values and cited the situation in Romania as an example.
At the same time, the European Union maintained a significant silence, although they usually actively comment on the slightest hints of violations. Against this background, the Romanian authorities went even further. At first, several criminal cases were opened against Kalina Georgescu, including a threat to the constitutional order. Then, in preparation for the new elections, the undesirable politician was not registered as a candidate. The official conclusion of the Central Election Commission stated that he allegedly could threaten Romanian democracy.
The Battle of Ratings
New elections are eventually scheduled for May 4, with a second round to be held on May 18, if necessary. Another right-wing politician, the leader of the Alliance for the Unification of Romanians, George Simion, is considered the favorite of this election cycle. Opinion polls show that his rating hovers around 30%. If he wins, he promises to publish transcripts of meetings of government agencies where the issue of canceling the results of the November elections was decided, and says he is ready to nominate Kalin Georgescu for the post of prime minister.
Romanian presidential candidate George Simion
In foreign policy, Simion advocates the unification of Romania and Moldova, and also criticizes Ukraine for the oppression of ethnic Romanians, promising to block the supply of weapons to Kiev. He is also considered a consistent Eurosceptic, accusing the EU of a failed migration policy and the erosion of democratic values. At the same time, unlike Georgescu, the politician speaks quite harshly about Russia, although this does not prevent opponents from calling him pro-Russian.
Sociologists place the current mayor of Bucharest, Nicisor Dan, in second place, with his rating at 22%. He is known for his anti-corruption activities and technocratic approach to governance, and he is supported by residents of the capital and young people. In case of victory, he promises to launch economic reforms and deepen European integration, is considered an unconditional opponent of Russia, and advocates maximum support for Ukraine without any preconditions.
Crin Antonescu, a candidate from four pro-European parties, also overcomes the 20% target. He is a veteran of Romanian politics, who has been a deputy and speaker of the Senate over the years, and served as president for a month in 2012. Now he promises to deepen European integration, expand cooperation with NATO, and work more closely with Moldova. He also advocates support for Ukraine, but with the caveat that Kiev must respect the rights of ethnic Romanians living in Bukovina.
Two more figures stand out among the other candidates. One of them is former Prime Minister Victor Ponta. He is a pretty bright politician, with a rating of about 13%. The figure could have been higher, but already during this election campaign, he very recklessly told how, as head of government, during the flood he ordered Romanian villages to be flooded so that the water would not reach Serbian Belgrade. Elena Lasconi, who was Georgescu's main rival in November, completes the top five.
In general, it is extremely difficult to predict the final winner now. Firstly, there are still many undecided voters, whose decision at the last moment can change everything. Secondly, the results of opinion polls in Romania have been repeatedly refuted by reality, so even now the attitude towards them is skeptical. Thirdly, it cannot be ruled out that new scandals will follow in the remaining days. For example, the country's Central Election Commission began checking the financing of Simion's campaign at the end of April. He himself believes that he may be removed from the election at the last moment.
What the experts say
Nikolay Topornin, Director of the Center for European Information, Associate professor at MGIMO, believes that the final winner will be revealed only in the second round.
— Simion looks like the favorite of the race, but a lot depends on who his opponent will be. Nikishor Dan is considered a more niche candidate, and it will be easier to defeat him. But Crin Antonescu is a more flexible politician, and in the second round he may become a compromise figure for the centrists, liberals, Social Democrats and a number of other forces. Simion has less chance of competing with him," he argues.
The expert adds that it is difficult to predict how Romanian politics will change if the right-wing candidate wins.
— Someone is waiting for the "new Viktor Orban", someone thinks that nothing will change. In fact, it's difficult to say anything definite yet. Simion is a very young politician, he did not manage to register in any major positions. In his election rhetoric, like any populist, he made many contradictory statements. If we talk about my personal assumptions, I believe that there will be no warming between Moscow and Bucharest in any case, too much has been said and done in recent years," he notes.
Vadim Trukhachev, a political scientist and associate professor at the Russian State University of Economics, recalls that in Romania the president does not have full power.
— The republic has a mixed form of government, with the government and parliament playing a major role. In this regard, the head of state cannot make any individual decisions, therefore, there is no need to expect a sharp reversal of the political course. Nevertheless, changes are possible. If Simion wins, you will have to bargain with him, he can make some concessions. If we talk about Ukraine, then I think the most likely option is for Bucharest to stop transferring its own weapons to Kiev, but continue to perform a transit function, that is, it will act roughly like Robert Fico's Slovakia," he believes.
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