Major banks lowered deposit rates before the meeting on the key

Seven of the 10 largest banks have lowered deposit rates since the beginning of April, according to data from the websites of credit institutions (Izvestia studied them). The average return on deposits for a period of three months to a year is now close to 19%, which is 2 percentage points lower than the key one.

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The rates on semi-annual deposits, in turn, decreased by 0.8 percentage points over the month, to 19.5%. Deposits for six months used to yield the highest returns, but now they are equal to the interest on short terms.

The reduction in deposit rates, especially short—term ones, is a direct reflection of market expectations for easing the Central Bank's monetary policy, said Gayane Zamaleeva, an analyst at «Banks.ru». Moreover, by such actions, financial organizations show that they predict a policy easing in the next six months. By reducing yields in advance, players are trying to get more benefits, said economist Andrei Barkhota.

Conditions for short-term products are most sensitive to forecasts for the key rate, according to Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. The fact that more than half of the largest players have changed their offers confirms that there is a steady consensus in market expectations.

Judging by the level of deposit rates, it allows for a reduction in the key rate in the summer, potentially in June or July, Vladimir Chernov explained. The size of the first step may be 0.5 percentage points, meaning the rate is likely to be lowered to 20.5%. If inflation continues to slow down, more drastic actions are possible — a reduction to 20% immediately.

Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:

Buried a deposit: seven of the top 10 banks lowered deposit rates