Vanity, great power, nervousness: how Donald Trump sees international relations
The harsh foreign policy actions of the Donald Trump administration have revived the debate about whether the 47th president of the United States has a long-term foreign policy strategy and whether it is possible to predict his next steps. The Foreign Affairs publication published an article on the concept of a "new concert of great powers", which Trump is allegedly engaged in. At the same time, the American media is distributing an internal document of the US State Department leaked online, which describes practical steps to change the emphasis of American foreign policy. Izvestia has studied how Donald Trump sees the emerging system of international relations.
Competition or collusion
Foreign Affairs, an authoritative publication published by the Council on Foreign Relations, an organization that was one of the first to put the theory of globalism into practice, published an article on Donald Trump's foreign policy. The US President's approach to the global political process has been heavily criticized. The FA argues that Trump is shaping a world order similar to the one that existed in the first half of the 19th century — the "concert of the Great Powers" or the second edition of the Vienna System of International Relations. As a result of the Napoleonic Wars, Russia, Prussia, Austria, Great Britain and, after a while, France agreed at the Congress of Vienna to jointly protect the monarchical system, maintain the existing status quo and not claim global dominance. Trump, according to Foreign Affairs, has moved away from the idea of global competition during his first term. The opponents of the United States "are challenging our geopolitical advantages and trying to change the international order in their favor," said the US National Security Strategy, published in December 2017.
Now, as the FA notes with indignation, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is talking about multipolarity, to the delight of his global opponents, and is trying to negotiate a new world order with them. The publication recalls how many in Washington expected the "continuity of the Trump-Biden-Trump foreign policy." "But now it should be clear that Trump sees the world not as an arena of great power rivalry, but as an arena of collusion between great powers: a 'concert' system similar to the one that shaped Europe in the 19th century," says Foreign Affairs and predicts the failure of this endeavor.
Rubio cuts
Almost simultaneously, a number of American media outlets published an internal circular from the State Department, which was allegedly recently sent to all structural divisions of the American Foreign Ministry. According to Trump's decree, the State Department will undergo a deep restructuring. In addition to the obvious — the elimination of offices on climate, democracy, refugees and various gender issues — the president intends to seriously reduce diplomatic representation in a number of regions. For example, the Bureau of African Affairs, whose area of responsibility included sub-Saharan Africa, will be abolished. Instead, a much more modest Office of the Special Envoy for Africa will be formed, which will deal with security issues and "strategic extraction of the most important natural resources." American embassies and consulates will be closed in some countries.
Instead of regional bureaus, four corps will be formed: Eurasian (Europe, Russia and Central Asia), Middle Eastern (Arab States, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan), Latin American and Indo-Pacific.
Despite the fact that none of the officials has confirmed the authenticity of this project, it fits seamlessly into the overall strategy of the new US foreign policy. Among other things, it involves a radical, almost twofold reduction in funding for the State Department, which currently employs 80,000 people.
The most important element in optimizing efforts and costs is to reduce the costs of international organizations, including the United Nations and NATO, as well as to refrain from financial support for peacekeeping operations around the world.
Regionalization and globalism
Although no one commented on this information on Capitol Hill, White House officials indirectly confirm its authenticity with their statements. The day after the publication of the circular, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaking at the Army College in Carlisle, said that "the time when the United States <...>..> We were the only guarantor of European security, it's over."
The concept of diplomacy that existed before the First World War is returning to international relations, says Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada.
— The announced reforms of the State Department with a radical revision of the importance of international organizations serve as proof of a fundamental change of emphasis. It is as if we are returning to the situation before 1918, a world in which there is neither the League of Nations nor the United Nations. This logically leads to the idea of a "conspiracy of great powers" that conclude deals on issues of interest to them. We are seeing the return of secret diplomacy, and public diplomacy is receding into the background. Agreements will become more layered, and much will be decided behind closed doors," the expert believes.
Foreign Affairs describes this approach as a rejection by the United States of "upholding liberal principles in front of the rest of the world" in the context of a "new concert." However, Trump, who wants to be the second Bismarck, risks remaining in history as the second Napoleon III, who, being "vain and emotional, susceptible to flattery and shame," soon discovered that his allies had abandoned him and his opponents were openly manipulating him.
On the other hand, experts say, Trump's pragmatic approach should, on the contrary, simplify international relations and help their actors circumvent existing ideological contradictions. Economics and global trends are put ahead of political slogans and cliches. In addition, the Trumpists intend to use an accentuated two-pronged approach in solving various regional issues. In theory, it should also make American foreign policy more predictable.
— If it is necessary to reach an agreement in the Indo-Pacific region, Trump will talk to China, and the position of the conditional UK will not bother him. The same is true in European affairs. This will happen without regard for ideological or value orientations. The economy will be a priority," the expert points out.
However, there is another point of view. According to Dmitry Suslov, an expert at the Valdai Club and deputy director of the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics, Trump has not abandoned the idea of global American dominance. It's just that this time it will be projected through direct coercion, unmasked by talk of "the triumph of democracy." In his opinion, "American exceptionalism" (as Americans themselves understand it) is not going anywhere, and therefore, under its slogan, the United States will continue to claim absolute leadership.
— The fundamental feature of the "European concert" was the rejection of hegemony. This was what made it possible to maintain balance and avoid a direct collision. The United States under Trump is not only not abandoning hegemony, but is further intensifying the struggle for primacy and using tougher methods. Yes, Trump perceives Putin and Xi Jinping as equal rivals and is ready to conduct an equal dialogue with them, but this does not apply to relations between the countries. The United States continues to strive for military, technological and economic dominance," concludes Suslov.
The second distinguishing feature of the Vienna system was the recognition by the great Powers of spheres of influence. According to Dmitry Suslov, there are no signs of such an approach to the interests of counterparties in the current US foreign policy. Washington is increasing China's deterrence around the world, although not always successfully. The same can be said about the US-Russian relations.
The New World Order
Apparently, Vienna 2.0 will be no less similar to the concept of the "four policemen" proposed by Franklin Roosevelt and underlying the creation of the United Nations and its governing body— the Security Council. The "rules" of global elites, on which it was proposed to build the world, are thus being replaced by the rules of the treaty of strong nations. Only this time, "strength" will be determined through a subjective assessment of each other, and not by the charter of the "club of the chosen".
As Dmitry Suslov notes, there is much more chaos in the world order to which Trump aspires than there was in the 19th century.
— Trump is building a competitive environment where the United States is the strongest power. They are not dissolving, but rebuilding the global system of unions. Of course, this is not a "rules—based order" — it is more chaotic, but it implies the preservation of the United States in the status of the No. 1 power, the Izvestia interlocutor emphasizes.
In the emerging system of international relations, much will be decided at the regional level, emphasizes Vladimir Vasiliev.
— The United States has abandoned the construction of a liberal world order. Concepts like "global Britain" did not last long. The world is attached to itself. After all, most of the current problems are regional in nature, and now they will be solved by a smaller number of players and in a different format. This means that the role of the UN will also be reviewed, obviously in the direction of its weakening," the expert concludes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
