The budget deficit may exceed the plan by almost three times and amount to 3.3 trillion

According to the financial plan for 2025, the budget deficit is projected at almost 1.2 trillion. But the shortage may increase to 3.3 trillion rubles, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. This will happen because oil prices are falling and the ruble is strengthening.

Less is better, but better: budget deficit is decreasing in Russia

The volume of tax revenues continues to grow steadily

So, in April 2025, the Urals price dropped to $53 per barrel, which is a quarter lower than planned, said Mikhail Kosov, Head of the Department of State and Municipal Finance at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

He clarified that if oil prices remain low, the budget may not receive up to 20% of the plan. The share of oil and gas revenues to the treasury in 2025 is 27% (about 10.9 trillion). That is, due to cheaper raw materials, losses may amount to an additional 2-2.2 trillion rubles.

The volatility of oil prices is related to the trade war between the United States and China, Mikhail Kosov explained. The global economy is expected to slow down, which means that demand for energy resources will fall.

At the same time, the authorities have several options for how to close the budget gap — borrowing on domestic (through OFZ), external (through Eurobonds) markets or funds from the National Welfare Fund (NWF).

In the fall of 2024, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that the NWF would no longer be used to finance the deficit.

"If oil prices really continue to decline and stay at low levels for a long time, then the Ministry of Finance will probably have to use funds from the National Welfare Fund to cover the budget deficit," admits Nikolai Dudchenko from Finam.

Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:

There is no shortage: the budget deficit may exceed the plan by almost three times