The IMF has revised down its forecast for US GDP for 2025-2026
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth The US will slow down to 1.8%. This is evidenced on April 22 by the next IMF report on the prospects for the development of the global economy published on the website.
"Growth in the United States is expected to slow to 1.8% [in 2025], which is 0.9 percentage points lower than the conclusions contained in the January Global Economic outlook report," the document says.
It is noted that this demonstrates more significant political uncertainty, as well as trade tensions and weakened demand. The report's tables show that the US economy is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2026, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the January forecast.
The authors of the document believe that the growth of American GDP in 2026 "against the background of moderate consumer spending" will be hampered by import duties. Pierre-Olivier Gurinsha, chief economist at the foundation, said that the reduction in the forecast was due to an increase in US trade duties. According to him, the inflation forecast has also been adjusted upward — by about 1 percentage point from 2%.
On April 19, the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, announced the negative impact of US President Donald Trump's trade duties on the global economy. According to her, tariffs have led to a decrease in the growth rate of the global economy.
On April 2, Trump announced the introduction of 10% base duties on products imported from other countries. For the European Union, this figure was raised to 20%, and for China — to 34%. Later, on April 9, he suspended the duties previously imposed on a number of countries for 90 days. In addition, Trump announced an immediate increase in duties on products from China to 125%. On April 10, this figure reached 145%.
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