Prospects for cooperation between Russia and the United States in the Arctic. Analysis

The team of US President Donald Trump is considering the possibility of offering Russia investments in the Arctic in exchange for cooperation on resolving the conflict in Ukraine. However, the negotiation process is stalling for now. Izvestia analyzes how likely it is to resume joint work in the Arctic in the near future and which projects are of the greatest interest in both Moscow and Washington.

Promising areas for cooperation

• The greatest interest of the American side, as US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated, is aroused by all projects related to natural resources. Rosnedra reported that reserves of rare and rare-earth metals in the Arctic are recorded in 30 deposits. This represents 75% of all reserves in Russia. The development of these fields and the search for new deposits may become an area of cooperation between Moscow and Washington.

• The resumption of joint work in the Kara Sea also looks very promising. Rosneft and the American oil company ExxonMobil were developing fields in this region until 2018. However, then the United States imposed sanctions against Russia, and the companies broke off cooperation. Restoration of this project may become a priority in Washington right now.

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• Russia is interested in resuming cooperation in the Arctic, primarily in using the potential of high-tech American companies in oil and gas projects. Moscow has managed to find a replacement for some of the American technology in energy projects after the sanctions were imposed, but it is still far from being fully replaced. In addition, US economic restrictions discourage investors from investing in the Arctic.

• However, against the background of climate change and global warming, joint large-scale climate research in the Arctic is extremely important. The discussion of joint ways to ensure the safe use of the region's potential is of particular interest to both countries.

• Currently, there are almost no contacts between Moscow and Washington in the region. However, joint development of natural resources is the most likely option for the resumption of relations between the two countries in the Arctic.

Russia's position

• To date, cooperation between the United States and Russia in the Arctic has been minimized, Alexey Chekunkov, Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, told Izvestia. This situation is unnatural, as the countries are the largest Arctic states in the world and have a mutual responsibility to maintain balance in the fragile Arctic system — in every sense of the word.

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• The Minister noted that global economic projects are already being implemented in the Russian Arctic in the fields of hydrocarbon production, fertilizer production, and the development of deposits of precious, non-ferrous, and rare earth metals. All of these projects play an important role in providing the world with affordable energy, food, and the production of high-tech goods. Given the growing level of protectionism and disruption of international trade relations, the American economy will increasingly need Arctic goods. According to him, this is the first area for possible cooperation.

• The second area is logistics. The Northern Sea Route has already established itself as a transport artery of global importance. The volume of traffic on it will only increase. Although its main role is to connect Europe with Asia, American vessels may also be interested in using this route in the future. The third possible area of cooperation is the issues of indigenous and small—numbered peoples of the North. Cooperation in this area is quite close, and in some aspects it has retained a healthy degree of interaction that has been lost over the past few years in other matters with Western countries.

• And the fourth is security. Everyone knows that the closest flight paths between America and Eurasia run through the Arctic. This is a highly specialized but important topic for global security. Dialogue, mutual respect and following clear protocols are important here to avoid misunderstandings. This is done by professionals from the relevant departments.

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• The head of the Ministry of the Far East believes that if the constructive dialogue that has already begun with President Trump's team continues, then the development of the Arctic will certainly be one of the priority topics.

What is the conflict of interests in the Arctic?

Territorial claims have been arising over the Arctic region for many years. First of all, Russia and the United States are arguing over the Northern Sea Route. The Russian Federation considers it its national artery. Washington insists on freedom of navigation, claiming that these waters are international.

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In addition, Russia is actively increasing its presence in the Arctic: it is building bases, reviving Soviet-era airfields, and patrolling the region with nuclear submarines and strategic bombers. The United States responds with joint exercises with NATO in Arctic waters. As a result, both countries see the Arctic as a strategically important site for controlling the Northern Hemisphere, as well as a possible arena for future conflicts.

• Against the background of rather tense relations between Russia and the United States, there is almost no dialogue on regional issues. There is the Arctic Council, a platform for cooperation between Arctic countries. However, after the start of the SVR, Western countries stopped interacting with the Russian Federation on this site.

The likelihood of cooperation in the Arctic

• After US President Donald Trump came to power, statements about a possible improvement in bilateral relations, including in the Arctic, are increasingly being made. In particular, Nikolai Patrushev, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation and Chairman of the Russian Maritime Board, does not rule out the development of joint Russian-American projects in the Arctic. In his opinion, there are prerequisites for joint work in the region, including on economic projects. In addition, Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, said after the Russian-American talks in Riyadh that the parties, among other things, had analyzed the possibility of restoring cooperation in the Arctic region.

• According to the publication Responsible Statecraft, Washington may offer Moscow the lifting of sanctions and cooperation in the Arctic region for the Ukraine deal. The magazine's experts believe that the United States needs to step up development of the northern polar regions both economically and militarily. The Ukraine deal is a good chance to negotiate a profitable cooperation.

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• However, no specific plans have been announced yet, which kind of cooperation is planned to be developed in the Arctic region and on what terms. In addition, despite the fact that Western colleagues periodically accuse Trump of pro-Russian positions, he extended some of the sanctions against Russia. The settlement of the conflict in Ukraine through Washington's mediation is also stalling, which naturally reduces the likelihood of an improvement in bilateral relations in the near future. Cooperation in the Arctic is impossible without the end of hostilities. Another possible obstacle is the degree of stability of the current American leadership's policy course, which raises many questions.

When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinion of:

• Vladimir Vasiliev, Chief Researcher at the Institute of USA and Canada;
• Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEMI) Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin;
• Nikita Lipunov, a researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies.