Quadrature of the district: sales volume of new comfort-class buildings dropped by 20%

In Moscow, sales in new buildings in the comfort and business segments dropped sharply, market participants told Izvestia. In March, developers sold 20% fewer apartments in the capital than in February. In Russia, sales decreased by about 8% — a decline was observed in six of the eight federal districts. The trend is connected not only with the high cost of housing and the difficulties of taking out a mortgage, but also with the fact that demand has partially shifted to the primary market of neighboring regions — those where a square meter is cheaper, experts believe. Whether to expect new market drops is in the Izvestia article.

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In March 2025, 4.3 thousand apartments and apartments were sold in the primary residential real estate market within the borders of "old" Moscow in the comfort and business segments, market participants told Izvestia. This is 16% less in lots and 15% less in square meters than in February, VSN Group's Analytics and consulting department estimated.

The total revenue of developers at the end of the month amounted to only 88 billion rubles against 105 billion rubles in February, having decreased by 19%. The share of mortgage transactions compared to February in March of this year remained unchanged at 51%.

The minimum size of the sold lot in the mass segment by the end of March was 17.2 square meters, with an average area of 42.4 square meters. m. In the business class segment, the smallest object sold was a lot with an area of 19.9 square meters, with an average area of 57.8 square meters. m.

According to the Ricci residential real estate department, in new buildings in Moscow in the comfort and business segments, the number of transactions decreased more in March — by 20.3% for apartments and by 19.7% for apartments.

"This decrease was accompanied by an increase in prices for new buildings," Evgeny Sugrobov, deputy director of the company's department, told Izvestia. — In Moscow, the weighted average price in the comfort segment increased by 0.7% in March, and the average purchase budget increased by 1.6%. In the business segment, the indicator increased by 1.2% in March, while the average budget increased by 1.9%.

According to Est-a-Tet, in March, comfort and business class projects were registered in the primary Moscow market by 19.9% less than in February.

— The total area of apartments and apartments for registered residential buildings in March was 212.2 thousand square meters, which is 19.7% less than in February, he said. The estimated revenue in March was 92.3 billion rubles, which is 20.2% less than in February. The share of mortgage transactions in the comfort and business segment in March was slightly higher than in February — 51.9%.

In Moscow, in March 2025, apartments and apartments were sold by 15% less than in February, the head of Cian added.Analysts" Alexey Popov. This ratio was recorded for the first time in 10 years.

— There is also a decrease in Russia as a whole, although it is less pronounced. Preliminary estimates are 38 thousand transactions in absolute terms and minus 8% compared to February," the expert said.

According to the Prodom analytics service, 1.47 million square meters were sold nationwide in January 2025. m housing.

"February showed a positive trend, with sales of 1.9 million square meters. In March, the total area sold was 1.8 million square meters," said Vladimir Kravchenko, Vice President of Marketing.

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To sell an apartment in Moscow

According to the results of the first quarter of 2025, six of the eight federal districts experienced a decline in sales. The exceptions were the Central Federal District, where sales increased largely due to Moscow, the Moscow Region, and the Far Eastern Federal District (where demand is supported by Far Eastern and Arctic Mortgage).

Anatoly Batalin, Commercial Director of Sadovoye Koltso Group, noted that an insignificant decrease in March was recorded in the Moscow Region. In Kazan, a slight decrease in the number of transactions goes hand in hand with an increase in the average cost per square meter and an increase in the average area of apartments sold.

"The situation in Ufa is also quite stable," he said. — In this region, the market as a whole recorded even 2% more transactions in March than in February, but the average values in terms of lot area and prices per square meter remained virtually unchanged.

The decrease compared to February was also noted by Anna Terekhova, Sales Director of the development company Marmax.

"The January and February figures are traditionally influenced by delayed New Year's Eve demand, especially among business class customers," she said.

In addition, the average lot price increased by an average of 9.5% in March, said Andrey Sado, Managing partner of Repu Lane Realty. This was probably the reason for the drop in demand in March.

— Surprisingly, in the Moscow region we notice an increase in transactions to about 20% compared to February, — said the expert. — What we saw in March is such a contrast. The fall in "old" Moscow, the fall in New Moscow by 9%, but in the Moscow region — an increase of almost 20%.

The key reason for the decline in demand lies in high mortgage rates, which are unaffordable for most buyers and do not allow them to solve the housing issue, said the director of the portal "Vseostroike.Russian Federation" by Svetlana Opryshko.

— Developers are actively developing their own programs to attract buyers, including installments, — said the expert. — Their share, according to various estimates, ranges from 30 to 70%, and sometimes higher, depending on the segment, which allow you to make a purchase on favorable terms and help maintain sales.

VSN Group CEO Yana Glazunova added that in the context of a real credit policy and the fight against inflation, sales figures cannot be called critical.

"They fully correspond to real conditions, and further demand trends will be clear based on the results of the following periods," she said.

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Buy an apartment in the Moscow region

Some of the demand has shifted to the primary market of the Moscow region due to more affordable budgets, real price reductions in a number of projects, taking into account discounts and great opportunities for using family mortgages, Roman Rodiontsev added.

— In the primary market of the Moscow region, the decrease in realized demand in March compared to February was less pronounced: by 4.9% in area and by 7.6% in the number of remote control units, — the expert emphasized. — The share of mortgage transactions in the primary market of the region is higher than in Moscow: 67% in February and 69% in March.

Traditionally, spring is the period when buyers take a wait—and-see attitude before the active summer season, and March, as a rule, does not become a peak month, according to Valery Tumin, Director of Russian and CIS Markets at fam Properties.

"One of the important but less noticeable reasons may be the redistribution of consumer activity in favor of regions and suburbs, both as part of the trend towards moving out of town and as a result of the development of mortgage programs outside megacities," he said. — It is also worth considering the high base factor: February was one of the most active months for transactions, which naturally leads to a subsequent correction.

Developers note that potential buyers spend more time choosing an object: they study offers, expect promotions and flexible conditions from developers.

According to Alexey Popov, one of the non—obvious reasons for the monthly decline in March is good sales in February.

— Many companies paid annual bonuses or bonuses not in March – April, but at the end of last year, so as not to fall under the January increase in personal income tax, — he recalled. — And this money settled in the housing market not in early spring, but in January and February. This is indirectly confirmed by the fact that in March the share of mortgage transactions in new buildings increased, meaning there were fewer buyers with "live money" on the market. This led to a correction in the total number of transactions.

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In addition, according to Svetlana Opryshko, developers today are not offering the product that the buyer needs, especially when it comes to Moscow. For example, according to the Unified Information System of Housing Construction (UISWS), almost half of the apartments in the capital have an area of up to 45 square meters, and only 19% of apartments are over 70 square meters, that is, the square footage that would suit family buyers.

— On the other hand, in conditions of high rates, the solvency of apartment buyers decreases, — the expert emphasized.

In Moscow, she said, most projects are being built in the business class segment with an appropriate price, and the supply of affordable housing is limited. Accordingly, demand is decreasing.