What the "zhduny" are waiting for: is it worth buying a car now

Amid rumors of the return of departed car brands, some Russians decided to postpone the purchase of a car. In addition, a high key interest rate does not contribute to demand — it seems more profitable to keep money in banks at high interest rates. Izvestia found out whether the return of brands to Russia would help reduce car prices.

A survey of Russian car owners conducted by the Autostat analytical agency showed that one in four of them is waiting for the return of departed brands to the country. The agency's analysts admit that they did not foresee the serious impact of the so-called "waiting times" on the market. Meanwhile, sales in February fell by 25% compared to February 2024, and in March — by 45.5% compared to the same period last year.

"We didn't make any moves"

None of the car brands that have left the Russian market have officially announced their return. According to the Financial Times, Renault CEO Luca de Meo said that the company does not rule out a return to Russia. According to media reports, Toyota held a secret meeting with former Russian dealers in the UAE. A representative of a major car dealer called all this information "infoshoom."

Hyundai has denied reports in the South Korean media that it is allegedly discussing a return to the Russian market and the purchase of its plant in St. Petersburg.

"We have not taken any steps since the sale of the plant," Hyundai said. They also called inaccurate information about the intention to sell 50 thousand cars of the Kia subsidiary brand in Russia in 2025.

It is not enough to lift the sanctions

Experts interviewed by Izvestia admit that many brands theoretically have scenarios for returning to the Russian market. However, the resumption of official sales will not happen in the near future, they are sure.

— These sanctions have been adopted by all countries where the headquarters of the departed car companies are located. If the conditional Volkswagen suddenly decides to return, he will pay as much money for violating sanctions as he has not earned in his entire history, and the president of the company will go under criminal charges. It's one thing to create a scenario, but another thing is sanctions that need to be lifted in order for the company to return," says Igor Morzharetto, partner at Autostat.

It will not be enough for foreign companies to simply wish for the lifting of sanctions. The Western automotive industry, which left Russia, is not welcome back "with open arms," said Anton Alikhanov, head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The State Duma has voiced the idea to impose a special tax on car companies that decide to return. The Federation Council Committee on Economic policy, in turn, proposed a list of conditions that would become mandatory for the return of Western automakers. Thus, the scheme of their work is proposed to be limited to a joint venture with domestic companies. Developments, technologies and design documentation should remain with the Joint Venture. Will car companies do this, and is there any such experience in practice?

The head of AVTOVAZ, Maxim Sokolov, said that if Renault decides to buy back its stake in AvtoVAZ sold in 2022, the amount of investments made by both the state and the company itself over the past time should be assessed.

— The conditions under which foreign companies will be allowed back to the Russian market are currently being worked out. One of the ideas is that they should bring technology here so that the story of 2022 does not repeat itself. Globally, they are interested in the Russian market, especially since European manufacturers are not doing well right now. It is difficult to say how this will technically happen and in what time frame. Some of the factories obviously work in a different direction, with whom they (foreign car brands — ed.) will negotiate, which production sites will be ready to accept them, which technologies they will agree to transfer to Russia — there are still more unknown than well—known ones," B1 partner Vasily Illuviev told Izvestia.

Dear guests

Investments in the expansion of production, the purchase of shares in Russian enterprises, the modernization of their production lines and the hiring of staff are likely to be transferred to the cost of cars.

Prices for brands that have returned to Russia are unlikely to be affordable. This can be seen on the example of the price lists of the South Korean brand KGM, although it was not leaving the Russian market because of sanctions and long before 2022. The most affordable Tivoli crossover was estimated at 3.59 million rubles, the flagship Rexton SUV at a minimum of 6.79 million rubles.

The price tags on models of bygone brands, supplied through alternative channels, also bite. According to Autostat, the weighted average price of Hyundai for 2 months of 2025 increased by 186% compared to the same period in 2022, Kia — by 162%, Volkswagen — by 198% and Skoda — by 180%. Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat, clarifies that a change in the model range plays a key role in the growth, since in 2022, most of the sales accounted for affordable Russian-built models.

At the same time, Toyota's model mix remained virtually unchanged, and the weighted average price increased by +86%, from 3.4 million to 6.3 million rubles.

It makes no sense to wait for the previous available "low-cost" models, Sergey Tselikov believes. Class B+ sedans and hatchbacks will cost from 2 million rubles. In the crossover segment, the prices of Europeans and Japanese will be 30-40% higher than their Chinese counterparts. As for the German and Japanese premium, the average price tag of cars imported through alternative channels in 2024 reached 15.5 million rubles, Autostat noted.

— Let's say that the price will decrease due to something, what will it do in principle? The car costs 8 million rubles, and it will cost seven. It won't have much effect on sales volume. Prices will go down only if car brands come back with localization, Vasily Illuviev believes.

What will the assembly in Russia do?

The significantly increased recycling fee has made it unprofitable to import budget models. Currently, the only option to reduce prices is to organize car assembly in Russia.

— Those who have retained the opportunity to produce cars in the country will return more likely, this list is not so large, — said Oleg Moseev, ex-president of the Association of Russian Automobile Dealers (ROAD), auto expert.

At the same time, Daniil Shkurygin, commercial director of <url>, is confident that the process of resuming production for such brands will take at least a year or longer in any case.

— Even if we assume that all issues related to the repurchase of plants have been resolved, the resumption of production is not a quick process. Companies will need serious investments, they will need to re-obtain all the documentation for cars, arrange supplies, etc.

— If the sanctions risks are removed, then the Chinese will have no restrictions to come and build factories in Russia. The race for full representation will begin. We can see that the Chinese are doing joint ventures in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, but these are clearly not more capacious and solvent markets," Vasily Illuviev suggests.

"There is little potential for lower prices"

Unfounded rumors about the possible return of departed car brands are slowing down demand in the market, Renat Tyukteev, Deputy General Director for New Car Sales at Avilon AG, said in an interview with Izvestia.

— In April, we expect a barely noticeable increase in sales compared to February and March, it will not be rapid, — he said.

According to Renat Tyukteev, the main drivers are numerous support programs from automakers. Dealers are actively selling cars built in 2023-2024, accumulated in warehouses, with unprecedented benefits.

— Discounts are now reaching even 1 million rubles on the market, such a discount is offered by one of the Chinese brands. On average, the offers in dealerships amount to a discount of 100-300 thousand rubles," said Nikolai Ivanov, director of the New car department at Rolf.

Today, buyers can expect a price reduction of up to 15%, while bidding in the salons remains an effective tool, says Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto.

Due to the declining market and high competition, Chinese brands are offering loan subsidy programs to maintain demand. Concessional loans are available at 8-12% per annum, and installments are offered without overpayments, but with a condition of paying 50-80% of the cost in advance and a short repayment period (1-3 years). However, such programs are temporary and may be curtailed by the summer, Irina Frank notes.

— If we look at the current situation, it seems that there is a small potential for price reduction due to market factors. But today there is a feeling that the pit has been passed, and tomorrow a pair of "black swans" have arrived. So far, everything looks like the price is close to what the manufacturer can afford, if not the minimum," Oleg Moseev notes.

The stock of each brand is different, said Nikolai Ivanov. On average, Chinese manufacturers have a stock of 4 months, but there are brands that have significantly more, 5-7, even 10 months.

— I do not think that prices will decrease, as all market participants have finally understood what stock there is, what demand there is in the market, and we have reached a kind of plateau. Therefore, I would not advise postponing the purchase of a car, — says Nikolai Ivanov. He expects that cars imported in 2025 will rise in price by 3-4%.

Daniil Shkurygin agrees with this forecast. Taking into account factors such as inflation, the exchange rate, and an increase in the recycling rate, there are no prerequisites for lower car prices, regardless of plans to bring back legacy brands.