The Ministry of Energy has lowered its forecast for Urals crude oil to $56 per barrel
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- The Ministry of Energy has lowered its forecast for Urals crude oil to $56 per barrel
The Ministry of Economic Development has submitted to the government a new draft of scenario conditions for the socio-economic development forecast for 2026 and the planned 2027-2028, as well as revised estimates for 2025. The ministry expects an average Urals price of $56 per barrel.
At the same time, the ministry believes that in the coming years the situation with the price of this oil will not become much better - Russian oil will be traded in 2026 at an average of $61, in 2027 - at $63, and in 2028 - at $65.
The agency also lowered its forecast for the cost of Brent crude oil to $68 per barrel (versus $81.7 in September). In the next three years, its price will be $72 per barrel.
The deterioration of forecasts is due to the fact that in the past few months, the quotes of raw materials have fallen sharply against the background of trade wars unleashed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
"For the budget, a decline in the Urals price is always not the best news, as the treasury is directly dependent on the dynamics of oil prices. If the cost of energy resources falls below $60 per barrel, the financial plan may miss a significant part of oil and gas revenues," explained Natalia Milchakova, lead analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
However, expectations for the national currency exchange rate have not changed. Judging by the macro forecast, the dollar will cost 94.3 rubles this year. For comparison, in September, the Ministry of Ecology predicted a rate of 96.5 rubles for 2025. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has strengthened by 20% - to 82 rubles/$. According to the representative of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the assessment for 2025 is realistic, but the agency realizes that the rate fluctuations may be quite high.
Read more in the exclusive material of Izvestia:
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