Kiev will bring it: what can happen to Ukraine if the ceasefire is violated

Today, Ukraine is ready only to offer options for a truce, but not to observe them in any way. All the experts interviewed by Izvestia agreed on this, summing up the results of the Easter truce, which was established by Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 18. Despite the fact that Kiev, which responded to this proposal, violated the agreement almost immediately, a day later Vladimir Zelensky came up with another "peaceful initiative" - to abandon drone and missile strikes on civilian infrastructure for at least 30 days. After the announcement of the Easter truce, the Russian Armed Forces stopped all hostilities from 18:00 on April 19 to 00:00 on April 21, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked Russian positions more than 400 times. About how his own actions can turn out for Kiev — in the material of Izvestia.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces violated the truce immediately

On the evening of April 20, Vladimir Zelensky proposed to abandon drone and missile strikes on civilian infrastructure for at least 30 days. The proposal came a day after Vladimir Putin proposed establishing an Easter truce, which Kiev violated virtually immediately by striking Donetsk on the morning of April 20. That evening, the State Department said it would welcome the continuation of the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine after Easter.

— So it was not observed by the Kiev regime during Easter. Moreover, American HIMARS weapons were used on Bankova to violate the truce," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova responded.

The governor of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, also accused Ukraine of violating the agreements, although he noted that "there is silence in a number of areas, no shelling is underway."

"This means that even among the Ukrainian military, there are those who have heard the call for peace and preserved their humanity. But, alas, not all of them," wrote the head of the region.

Zelensky's proposal indicates that Ukraine is only offering options so far, but is not complying with the agreements, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, tells Izvestia.

— So far, we can say [that Ukraine is not complying with the agreement], because Donetsk was attacked in the morning. I was personally informed about this from Donetsk. If this truce continues to be violated, it will certainly not be respected," he says.

Zelensky's motive is to regroup the armed forces, bring up the mobilized, upgrade equipment, get a break and use it.

The Russian President stressed that the Easter truce will show Kiev's willingness and ability to comply with the agreements, as well as participate in the process of peace negotiations to eliminate the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis.

Immediately after the announcement of the truce, the Ministry of Defense announced that Russia and Ukraine had exchanged prisoners according to the formula 246 for 246. Moscow also handed over 31 wounded prisoners of war to Kiev. In exchange, the Russian Federation returned 15 wounded soldiers who need urgent medical attention.

The Ministry of Defense reported that the ceasefire regime in the zone of self-defense is being introduced for humanitarian purposes, and the Russian troops will follow it, provided that the Ukrainian forces comply with it. The Russian leader emphasized separately that the armed forces must be prepared for possible violations of the truce by Kiev in order to repel any provocations and aggressive actions.

The failure of the Ukrainian side to comply with the agreements was demonstrated not only by the strike on Donetsk. On the afternoon of the same day, shelling of the vicinity of Chasova Yar using multiple rocket launchers and mortars was recorded, TASS reported, citing sources in Russian law enforcement agencies.

Despite the announcement of the Easter truce, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to attack Russian positions in the areas of the settlements of Sukhaya Balka and Bogatyr in the DPR - all of them were repelled, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The ministry also clarified that the enemy used aircraft-type UAVs 48 times. Kiev militants fired 444 times from guns and mortars at positions of Russian troops and carried out about 900 attacks with quadrocopters, including on the border areas of Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions. According to the ministry, as a result of the actions of the Ukrainian terrorists, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population.

Meanwhile, all groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the SVO zone strictly observed the ceasefire regime from 18.00 on April 19 and remained at previously occupied borders and positions. Against this background, Zelensky habitually stated that it was Russia that was violating the truce.

What is the Ukrainian leadership trying to achieve

Kiev refuses to comply with the agreements, at least because the Ukrainian leadership does not benefit from the truce, former Verkhovna Rada deputy Volodymyr Oleynik tells Izvestia.

— Zelensky is afraid of elections. First, if peace comes, elections will have to be held. Secondly, it's money. 60% of Ukraine's budget comes from the West and the United States. Zelensky understands that the continuation of the war is a matter of his safety and the preservation of his powers," Oleinik says.

Former Rada deputy Spiridon Kilinkarov also believes that the truce is clearly not a priority for the Ukrainian president right now.

— I think Kiev is not the only one involved in the violation of the truce. They are trying to make direct negotiations between Trump and Putin impossible," he says.

Such actions may lead to the fact that the United States may stop financing Kiev and impose personal sanctions, former Ukrainian lawmakers emphasize.

— There are two lists ready in the United States. One for 17 people is Zelensky's inner circle, and the second for 279 people. These lists were helped by Ukrainian politicians who are in the opposition. They have everything the Americans need to know about the current corrupt Ukrainian government. It's just that the situation has not yet matured politically in which this can be included in the case," says Spiridon Kilinkarov.

It is noteworthy that on the eve of the US President Donald Trump said: his country is ready to withdraw from negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict if one of the parties sabotages Washington's efforts.

How is the conflict settlement progressing

This is not the first time that Ukraine has failed to comply with the agreements reached. On March 18, Vladimir Putin supported Donald Trump's idea of mutual refusal of the parties to the conflict from attacks on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. Volodymyr Zelensky also promised that Kiev would support this proposal. However, during this time, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, Ukraine has carried out more than 100 attacks on energy facilities in 18 regions of Russia.

— The Kiev regime did not actually, de facto adhere to it. Our energy infrastructure facilities have been constantly attacked and are still being attacked. Therefore, the situation is obvious," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president.

Taking advantage of the Easter truce, the enemy also tried to advance on different sectors of the front, said military expert Vasily Dandykin. But by order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Federation, the Russian military fought back and repelled the attack.

—Ukraine said it would agree to conclude a truce even for 30 days, but the moratorium on energy facilities has already shown us that after such agreements, the enemy begins to attack even more," he reminded Izvestia. — This is evidenced by the consequences of the strikes, in particular in the Bryansk region, so everything was expected. Most likely, Ukraine will again justify itself by saying that its militants are taking revenge on our fighters and do not obey the leadership.

If the United States decides now to withdraw from the process of resolving the Ukrainian conflict, the current situation will allow them to do so with their heads held high, and not as it was, for example, in Afghanistan, when they withdrew troops like a "beaten dog," military expert Viktor Litovkin drew attention.

— Before that, the enemy violated the energy truce many times. It's Easter Sunday. This indicates Zelensky's incompetence or that he does not have real power in Ukraine and everyone acts as they want. But most importantly, it shows that the US president is completely disrespected in Kiev. Donald Trump's words and efforts to conclude a peace deal for Ukraine are empty words," he said.

Meanwhile, contacts between Moscow and Washington on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis are continuing. On February 12, Putin and Trump had their first conversation, and on February 18, the first meeting of the delegations took place in Riyadh. On March 25, the parties also discussed the issue of resuming the Black Sea Initiative, which, along with the moratorium on energy facilities, was a significant progress in the settlement. However, violations of the moratorium, as well as the subsequent truce by Kiev, make it difficult to implement the so-called "grain deal", which failed for the first time also due to non-compliance with Russian conditions. Over the past two months, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff has already visited Russia three times. Of these, twice — specifically for negotiations with Vladimir Putin.

The American side has so far made it clear that it is ready to make efforts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. Trump, according to Western media, stated that he intends to resolve the conflict before Easter. As expected, this did not happen, although on the eve of the holiday, he said that negotiations on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine were "coming to a climax." It was even reported that the United States was allegedly ready to recognize Crimea. At the same time, Washington has not yet made a final decision, Bloomberg noted. It is possible that a violation of the truce by Ukraine may force Trump to adopt a pro-Russian position, CNN reported. In any case, Vladimir Oleinik concluded, in the current situation regarding the Ukrainian crisis, the United States will take into account Moscow's position.