The negotiation process between the United States and Ukraine is stalling. What you need to know
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- The negotiation process between the United States and Ukraine is stalling. What you need to know
For two days, on April 17 and 18, representatives of the United States, Ukraine, Great Britain, Germany and France held talks in Paris, the parties discussed the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. The Elysee Palace assessed the meetings positively, but US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was more restrained and warned that Washington could stop its peacekeeping attempts if it did not notice any progress. Why the negotiations dragged on for months and whether there is a chance of an early end to the conflict is in the Izvestia article.
How can the negotiations in Paris and London end?
• Meetings of Western politicians to reach a compromise on Ukraine are continuing. On April 17-18, high-ranking representatives of the United States, Ukraine, Great Britain, Germany and France held talks in Paris. They discussed ways to end the conflict in Ukraine in various formats. The American delegation included Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the US President's special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and the President's special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. The Ukrainian side was represented by Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Ermak, Minister of Foreign Affairs Andriy Sibiga and Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov.
• Rubio later informed the Russian Foreign Minister that the United States had held talks with the Ukrainian side and proposed a plan, but had not yet discussed its details. The contents of the document are not known to the press either, so it's too early to judge whether the parties will finally be able to reach an agreement.
• The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak, stressed the importance of discussing a complete ceasefire and strengthening the security architecture. However, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is again trying to stall the negotiation process. In particular, he expressed concern about Steve Witkoff's statements about the possible inclusion of territories in the peace agreement, accusing him of promoting pro-Russian narratives. Verbal attacks and rudeness against the American representatives may again negate all efforts of the parties to find a compromise.
• Another round of talks is scheduled for next week in London, where the parties will continue discussing ways to achieve peace and stability in the region. However, the patience of American politicians is not unlimited. Marco Rubio noted that he hopes to receive more accurate answers to questions about the Ukrainian settlement during the next meeting. If there is no progress, Washington will stop dealing with the conflict and switch to other tasks.
What are the key contradictions between the United States and Ukraine?
• Ukraine and the United States have signed a memorandum of intent to the agreement on minerals. There is almost no specifics in the document. In particular, there is no information about security guarantees for Kiev and the conditions for repayment of the debt to Washington. The parties hope to sign the agreement itself before April 26. However, there is no final version of the document yet.
• It is likely that the signing may fail again. Ukrainian and European politicians do not support Trump's idea that Kiev should pay for American aid. Although Washington, according to Bloomberg, lowered the debt estimate from $300 billion to $100 billion, Ukraine is still not satisfied with this amount. This is one of the main issues on which the United States and Ukraine cannot agree.
• The proposed draft agreement provided for the transfer of a significant portion of the revenues from the extraction of U.S. resources without clear commitments to invest or rebuild Ukraine's infrastructure. This raises concerns in Kiev about the transparency of conditions.
Kiev also insists on the inclusion of provisions on security guarantees in the agreement, in fact, this implies the deployment of foreign military units and weapons in Ukraine. However, the United States objects to the inclusion of such obligations in the text of the agreement, which is one of the main obstacles to its signing. Moreover, Washington has repeatedly publicly stated that it does not intend to send personnel to Ukraine.
• There is a low probability that the parties will sign an agreement on rare earth metals in the near future. After all, this document is not so much about the use of Ukraine's natural resources as about Kiev's complete political and economic subordination to Washington.
When should we expect the conflict to end?
• As for the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine, its signing is unlikely to take place before autumn, the expert community believes. Trump's efforts to quickly resolve the conflict in a day or 100 days were doomed to failure from the very beginning. Rubio's threats about the US withdrawal from the negotiation process seem more realistic. The EU and Ukraine are not interested in a settlement on terms that Moscow considers acceptable.
• Other factors also hinder the peaceful settlement, in particular, the internal political situation in Ukraine. Due to the fact that the Zelensky government does not fully control the national battalions, the authorities cannot guarantee a ceasefire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, even if they give such an order. The military command may decide that signing a peace agreement is a "betrayal" of the Ukrainian idea and continue the attacks.
When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:
- Vladimir Batyuk, American political scientist, Chief Researcher at the Arbatov Institute of the USA and Canada (ISKRAN);
- Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
