The expert predicted a reduction in the key rate in July 2025

A reduction in the key rate is expected no earlier than July or even September 2025, but an earlier easing of monetary policy is possible if the economic situation improves. This was told to Izvestia on April 18 by the Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at DOM Bank.Russian Federation Zhanna Smirnova.

"We are waiting for a reduction no earlier than the July or even September meeting. If all of a sudden everything is going to be very good, then in June. But we need to see how the holiday season and summer trips will begin, and how price dynamics will react to this. If it does not go beyond the standard seasonality, then it will be possible to think about an earlier transition to a decrease," the expert noted.

According to her, current trends indicate a gradual decrease in overheating in the economy — inflation is slowing down, lending volumes are decreasing, inflation expectations are decreasing, and the growth of non-oil and gas budget revenues has also slowed down.

However, price growth remains high, and core inflation has not yet shown sufficient deceleration.

"Considering that we should reach the figure of 4% monthly dynamics by the end of the year, in order to move to a rate cut, we should already see levels of about 5%," Smirnova summed up.

Tariff plan: the market expects the key to remain at the level of 21%

How will the Central Bank take into account the new round of trade wars when making a decision and will it be able to maneuver between inflation and GDP growth

Earlier, on March 21, the regulator decided to keep the current key rate level at 21%. The Central Bank noted that the growth of domestic demand continues to outpace the possibilities of expanding the supply of goods and services. According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the current monetary policy, inflation will decrease to 7-8% in 2025, return to 4% in 2026 and will remain at the target level in the future.