Experts assumed that the key rate will remain at 21%

The Bank of Russia will keep the key rate at 21% for the fourth time in a row at a meeting next Friday, April 25, according to the consensus forecast of Izvestia.

Tariff fee: how trade wars will affect the Central Bank's decision on the key

Nabiullina will take into account tectonic changes in world trade

On April 9, during a speech in the State Duma, Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina stressed that the regulator would approach the rate cut carefully. And on April 16, the Bank of Russia emphasized that it is ready to consider an increase if inflation does not go to the 4% target.

"Tight monetary policy undoubtedly limits inflation. However, as we see in the example of 2024, this tightness may not be enough to break the inflation trend, as price dynamics depends not only on the monetary policy of the Central Bank. But also simply on the limited supply of goods and services," Denis Popov, managing expert of the center of analytics and expertise of PSB, believes.

Now the rate is held by other factors. For example, tectonic changes in global trade, which Elvira Nabiullina also drew attention to. Because of this, oil prices have already fallen. OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have also lowered their forecasts for demand for raw materials, recalled Olga Belenkaya, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at Finam.

For the Russian Federation, this means risks of lower prices for commodity exports, which may lead to a weakening of the ruble, a decrease in budget revenues and accelerated inflation. At the same time, the Central Bank may become confident in the stability of disinflationary trends only by July, expects the chief analyst of the Bank "St. Petersburg" Victor Grigoriev.