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- Atomic discharge: Iran and the United States discussed the solution of the nuclear problem in Oman
Atomic discharge: Iran and the United States discussed the solution of the nuclear problem in Oman
Iran agreed to contacts with the American administration because of threats of the use of force from the United States and Israel, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. On April 12, the delegations of Tehran and Washington held indirect talks on the Iranian nuclear program in Muscat. The parties agreed to continue contacts on April 19 to discuss the general framework of a possible agreement. Earlier, US President Donald Trump threatened bombing if the Islamic Republic did not conclude a deal. The American side outlined three main requirements for Iran: the settlement of the nuclear dossier, the limitation of missile capabilities and the curtailment of military activity in the Middle East.
How was the meeting between Iran and the United States?
On April 12, negotiations between the delegations of Iran and the United States on the nuclear program of the Islamic Republic took place in Muscat. The meeting promised to be one of the most intense in the last decade: the American side demands that Tehran not only settle the nuclear dossier, but also limit its missile potential, as well as curtail military activity in the Middle East. The question is whether Iran is ready to make such concessions, or whether another round of escalation is on the agenda.
The American delegation was led by the President's special envoy for the Middle East, Steven Witkoff, and the Iranian delegation was led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. The mediator between them was the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Oman, Badr bin Hamad bin Hamoud Al-Busaidi. Omani sources told Izvestia that the talks were held in a closed format without the participation of the press.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, the dialogue took place in a positive atmosphere, and the heads of the negotiating teams agreed to continue contacts next week on April 19. During the second round of negotiations, the general framework of a possible agreement between the parties will be discussed. After the consultations, Witkoff and Arakchi talked one-on-one for several minutes.
Even before the meeting, US President Donald Trump outlined his position very harshly, promising military strikes against Iran in the event of a failure of negotiations. His administration is demanding the complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear program.
According to the New York Times, Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei gave the green light to talks with the United States after his closest advisers warned of the risk of a collapse of the political system if he abandoned the diplomatic path. The newspaper writes: the Iranian authorities convinced Khamenei that ignoring Washington's proposal would lead to an imminent military clash with the United States and Israel, a challenge for which the Islamic Republic is unlikely to be ready in the current circumstances.
The country is experiencing a deep crisis: the depreciation of the rial, lack of electricity and water, as well as high inflation are increasing internal instability. It is significant that, against the background of the announcement of the negotiations, the Iranian currency strengthened by 5% in a few hours on the Tehran Currency Exchange, which the market took as a signal of hope for easing international isolation.
Iran's nuclear program has advanced significantly compared to what it was when the initial nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was concluded in 2015. At that time, Iran was allowed to possess small amounts of uranium enriched to 3.67% for civilian purposes such as nuclear energy and scientific research.
However, today the country is enriching uranium to 60%, which makes it possible, if desired, to disperse it to the level necessary for weapons-grade uranium in a matter of weeks. Given this development of the program, it is extremely difficult to bring the situation back to the JCPOA.
Iran's position on the new nuclear deal
Nevertheless, there has been a noticeable change in the political line in Iran — if earlier President Masoud Peseshkian traditionally advocated a negotiated path, but faced fierce resistance from Ali Khamenei, now, apparently, the spiritual leader has lifted the tacit prohibitions on dialogue with the United States, according to a senior researcher at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East. Vladimir Sazhin, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.
"So far, Tehran officially insists that only negotiations with an intermediary are possible, however, as noted in Iran, if the next round of consultations shows positive dynamics, the Iranian side may agree to a direct dialogue," the expert said.
According to him, such a turn has become unprecedented for Iranian politics. Over the past two months, the change in rhetoric in Tehran has become particularly noticeable, which indicates a growing awareness of the threat of external pressure. Amid growing concerns about a possible US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, the leadership of the Islamic Republic is forced to demonstrate flexibility.
In Iran, despite the intensification of rhetoric from the conservative wing and the growing calls to transfer the nuclear program to a military track, the authorities are not trying to completely close the door to negotiations with the United States, says orientalist Leonid Tsukanov. According to the expert, this is due to the fact that the refusal of dialogue would give Trump and his allies a reason to declare Tehran's non-negotiability. And this could lift restrictions on military actions against the Iranian nuclear program.
"As long as Washington and Tehran are in the same negotiating circuit, the likelihood that Israel will decide to act alone and strike at the Iranian nuclear infrastructure is significantly lower," Leonid Tsukanov notes.
Nevertheless, even in the new realities, Iran has set strict "red lines" for its negotiators. Thus, Khamenei categorically forbade discussing the fate of the missile program, which Tehran considers as a key element of the deterrence system.
— The development of Iran's missile program is quite sensitive — Tehran has been betting on the development of this particular component for many years and today has perhaps the most developed missile program in the Middle East. At least three new missiles have been put into service over the past year. Two more have been successfully tested,— Leonid Tsukanov said.
At the same time, the expert emphasizes that Iran is quite capable of agreeing to symbolic concessions in the framework of negotiations, for example, the country may refrain from commissioning new long-range missile systems or from transferring technology to its proxy groups. However, such steps will not mean a complete freeze of the program, which remains an important element of the national security strategy of the Islamic Republic.
According to New York Times sources, Tehran is flexible in supporting armed groups in the region. The Iranian delegation is ready to signal its readiness to de-escalate the conflict around the "axis of resistance", including the Yemeni Houthis.
— According to recent statements, there will be no agreement without legal mechanisms that would guarantee the rights of the Iranian people. The likelihood of reaching a new agreement or returning to the old provisions remains questionable, especially given the lack of guarantees and obligations," Iranian international relations specialist Hadi Issa Daloul told Izvestia.
Moscow insists on the need for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. Both Russia and China support Tehran's right to peaceful nuclear energy. As part of these efforts, Moscow, Beijing and Tehran have already held two rounds of consultations on the nuclear dossier since the beginning of the year.
The last technical negotiations took place at a closed meeting in Moscow on April 8. Although no final statement was made, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi called the consultations productive. According to him, the experts discussed ways of further cooperation, the situation with the lifting of sanctions and the implementation of UN Security Council resolution 2231, confirming their commitment to continue close trilateral coordination.
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