Reversed: car imports from China decreased
Russia has lost its status as the largest foreign market for Chinese automakers. In the first two months of this year, imports of new cars from China decreased by one and a half times. Experts explain this by overstocking dealer warehouses due to lower demand, as well as a change in the proportion of imported models and cars (including Chinese brands) assembled in Russia. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Between the UAE and Belgium
In January–February of this year, 57,592 new cars were imported to Russia from China. This is reported by Bloomberg with reference to the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). During the same period of 2024, 88.8 thousand cars were delivered from China to Russia (according to the analytical agency Autostat), that is, imports of new cars fell by one and a half times (by 56%) over the year.
Since 2023, Russia has been the largest foreign market for Chinese automakers. In terms of imports of new cars from China, our country has long been 1.5–2 times ahead of other countries. Now, according to the CAAM, the Russian Federation is in the third position, behind Mexico (86 thousand cars in the first two months of 2025) and the UAE (71.4 thousand cars). Russia is followed by Belgium (with an indicator of 48.5 thousand cars), which is the main European hub for the supply of cars from China to the EU. Saudi Arabia closes the top five largest foreign markets for Chinese automakers (43.4 thousand cars).
Overstocking, recycling, and the key rate
Experts interviewed by Izvestia cite a noticeable decrease in demand for cars as the main reason for the sharp decline in car imports from China. As a result, a large number of models from 2024 and even 2023 have accumulated in the warehouses of dealers and importers, they note.
— If you look at the market statistics in January and February, you can see that a significant part of the cars purchased are last year's, and in some cases, the models before last year. The volume of waste is enormous: according to various sources, they reached 400-500 thousand cars. In order not to replenish the already large stocks, importers had to reduce the volume of imports of cars from China," Igor Morzharetto, partner of the Autostat analytical agency, told Izvestia.
The indexation of recycling rates (in October last year and in January this year) led to a decrease in demand and overstocking of dealers' sites, which increased the cost of imported models, the expert believes. In addition, the high key interest rate has significantly limited the possibilities for purchasing cars on credit, he believes.
— The prerequisites for a decrease in demand and an increase in runoff were visible last fall, when the market was actively growing. And many importers, predicting its decline, already adjusted their plans for the supply of new cars from China at the beginning of this year," Maxim Kadakov, editor—in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, told Izvestia.
In 2023-2024, dealers actively purchased Chinese cars, expecting an increase in demand, recalls Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto. She also notes that the economic downturn and declining purchasing power have led to the emergence of unrealized stocks, as a result of which importers have reduced supplies in 2025 in order to sell off the leftovers.
— Additional reasons for the reduction in imports of Chinese cars include fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, an increase in the key interest rate and car loan rates. Interest in expensive foreign cars is decreasing due to high inflation, low incomes of the population and economic instability in general, - Irina Frank believes.
Production share
Another reason for the decrease in imports of cars from China to Russia is the increase in the number of Chinese models produced in our country under both original and new brands. So far, the ratio of imported and localized cars on the market is still far from the level of 2021 — early 2022, when the share of Russian-made cars on the market was more than 80%, admits Igor Morzharetto. However, it has been increasing recently, he noted.
Haval automobile plant in Tula region
— Recently, there have been many projects for the production of cars from China in our country, both under our own brands and under new ones. This includes a whole "scattering" of models at the Kaliningrad Avtotor, and the launch of production in Kaluga and St. Petersburg, and the assembly of cars at Moskvich, UAZ, and Yelabuga. The Belarusian Belgee project can also be attributed here, since a significant part of the machines produced in the neighboring state go to the Russian market. Accordingly, the need to import cars from China is gradually decreasing," Igor Morzharetto said.
So far, the ratio of imported and localized models is still fluctuating one way or the other, including depending on the general market situation, Maxim Kadakov emphasizes. However, in the long term, there is every chance that it will move specifically towards cars assembled at domestic car factories, he predicts.
Whose fee will be charged
Experts have disagreed about the impact of the trade war between the United States and China related to the mutual increase in customs duties on Russian imports of cars from China. Chinese cars occupy a very small share in the American market, Maxim Kadakov notes. Therefore, it is unlikely that an increase in duties on them in the United States will lead to overproduction within China and local producers will have to export more actively to other countries, including Russia, he believes.
In addition, electric cars from China (which are primarily imported from China to the American market) were previously subject to a 100% duty imposed by Biden. And its increase to 125% "will not make the weather," Igor Morzharetto believes.
Irina Frank believes that the war of duties may still affect the Russian market.
— Among the factors that can stimulate import growth is the US—China trade war. Sanctions against Chinese automakers in Western markets may redirect the flow of cars to Russia," she told Izvestia.
At the same time, she admits that the global trade war is unlikely to become a driver for importing Chinese cars to our country in the near future. For the Russian market, internal economic challenges are more important, she emphasizes.
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