The United States and Iran will hold talks on a nuclear deal. What you need to know

Negotiations between the United States and Iran will take place in Oman on Saturday, April 12. It is expected that the parties will discuss the re-conclusion of the nuclear deal, which the current US President Donald Trump canceled in his first term. The meeting will be an important event for the damaged relations between the two countries. Why Washington and Tehran are at odds, what influence the Iranian nuclear program has and how the next meeting may end — in the Izvestia article.

Relations between Iran and the United States before the 21st century

Historically, relations between the United States and Persia, as Iran was called before 1979, were quite friendly. The Persian authorities viewed the Americans as intercessors in the fight against the influence of the Russian and British empires, and two American officials were even chief treasurers at the shah's court. In the middle of the 20th century, the United States helped Iran create its own nuclear program and begin developing nuclear energy. Relations became especially close during the reign of the last Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was overthrown by the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

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On April 8, trilateral consultations were held in Moscow with the participation of Tehran and Beijing.

• This event has developed relations between the two countries. The new Iranian leadership suspected that the United States, with the help of the CIA, was organizing a counter-coup. The fears were reinforced by the fact that Washington allowed the former shah to enter the country for cancer treatment. This provoked the storming of the US Embassy in Tehran and the hostage-taking of American diplomats. In 1980, there was a break in diplomatic relations, which continues to this day. Soon, the United States made an unsuccessful attempt to free the hostages. Only 444 days later, as a result of negotiations, the hostages left Iran.

• After the seizure of the embassy, the United States froze Iranian assets worth about $12 billion, unblocking some of them after the hostages were released. In the 1980s, the United States supported Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War and destroyed Iranian oil platforms and a warship, as well as a passenger plane with 290 people on board. Iran also had a negative attitude towards the United States because of its support for Israel and used proxies to fight it. In 1995, the United States imposed a full embargo on trade with Iran.

The nuclear program and the nuclear deal

• In 2002, U.S. President George W. Bush called Iran one of the countries of the "axis of evil" and accused it of developing long-range missiles. At the same time, the main complaint against Tehran was the development of its own nuclear program. Washington feared that Iran was developing nuclear weapons under the guise of developing a peaceful atom. The United States set a course to isolate Iran, but it was not supported in Europe and Russia.

• Inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have shown that Iran has conducted certain experiments that could be related to the development of nuclear weapons, but no convincing evidence of their creation has been found since 2009. Nevertheless, in 2010, the UN Security Council once again strengthened sanctions against Iran, and the West's attitude towards Tehran continued to remain tense.

• At the same time, Iran has been negotiating since 2004 to limit its nuclear program, first with Britain, France and Germany, and then also with Russia, the United States and China, which formed the so-called 5+1 group. For a long time, negotiations did not lead to any result, but progress has been made since Hassan Rouhani was elected president of Iran in 2013. The parties signed a Joint action Plan providing for a short-term freeze of the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for partial lifting of sanctions.

• Two years later, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, was signed. On the part of Iran, he stipulated that the republic would significantly reduce its nuclear program. Tehran agreed to enrich uranium only to the level required for power reactors, abandon the development of nuclear weapons, transfer excess uranium and spent nuclear fuel outside the country, convert one of the uranium enrichment plants into a research center, and allow IAEA inspections for the next 25 years. In exchange, a plan for the phased lifting of sanctions was approved, which began to be implemented in 2016.

Cancellation of the nuclear deal

• The United States became a party to the JCPOA during the presidency of Democrat Barack Obama. The deal with Iran was actively criticized in the Republican Party, including the next head of the White House, Donald Trump. Although he initially agreed that Iran was complying with the terms of the deal, in the fall of 2017 he criticized the JCPOA for its lack of controls and disregard for Iran's missile program.

In May 2018, the United States announced its withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the restoration of its sanctions against Iran. Oil exports, the activities of banks and a number of companies were banned. Washington has also imposed secondary sanctions on countries that cooperate with Iran. Although European countries did not support the US demarche, they were forced to reduce economic activity in Iran.

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• Iran initially stated its intention to preserve the deal and offered other parties to the agreement to compensate for the losses that the republic suffered due to the actions of the United States. Eventually, Tehran reneged on part of its obligations and increased uranium enrichment, which was confirmed by ongoing IAEA inspections. The next US president, Joe Biden, expressed his intention to revive the nuclear deal, but all kinds of indirect US-Iranian negotiations reached an impasse. At the same time, Europe, Russia and China continued to hold consultations with Iran.

Trump and the new deal

• After returning to the White House, Trump again raised the issue of the Iran nuclear deal. He sent a letter to Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei with a proposal to hold talks on the nuclear program. At the same time, in other statements, the US president threatened bombing for refusing to conclude a deal. Iran rejected the proposal for direct negotiations as long as the country remains under pressure and threats.

Nevertheless, the parties still took the first step towards each other. Trump announced that direct talks with Iran will be held in Oman on April 12. He admitted that the parties may come to some kind of agreement, but also again threatened with consequences in case of failure. Tehran clarified that the talks would still be indirect, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Trump's special envoy Stephen Witkoff would participate in them.

• The talks in Oman will take place shortly after Iran held consultations with Russia, China and the Eurotroika, where various aspects of the resumption of the JCPOA were discussed. The results of these meetings can form the basis for fruitful discussions in Oman. At the same time, there is a possibility that the United States will expand the topic of negotiations and present Iran with its old demands — to abandon the missile program and proxy support in the Middle East. Discussion of these topics is rejected in Tehran.

• Analysts fear that the negotiations will not lead to any result for a number of reasons. First, under Trump, the United States has strengthened its alliance with Israel, which does not accept compromises with regard to Iran and has announced a possible independent strike against the Islamic Republic. Secondly, trust in Trump in Tehran was undermined seven years ago, so any proposals from the White House there will be treated with caution. Thirdly, Iran's influence in the Middle East has significantly decreased recently, including due to the change of government in Syria, and this may become a sore point for Tehran, where Washington will put pressure, seeking new conditions for itself. Nevertheless, the meeting in Oman at least reduces the degree of tension and leaves hope for the abandonment of a forceful attempt to resolve the conflict between the two powers that has lasted for almost half a century.