The analyst predicted a reduction in the budget deficit of the Russian Federation

According to the results of the first half of 2025, the budget deficit will be about 0.8–0.9%. By the end of the year, it may decrease to 0.6%, which looks more likely, or reach the planned 0.5%, which is a more optimistic scenario. Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, told Izvestia on April 8.

"The growth of budget expenditures in the first two months of the year is most often associated with advanced financing of expenditures. The government advances funds in advance for the indexation of pensions, benefits and other social benefits, transfers transfers to regional budgets in advance, so budget expenditures often grow faster than revenues in January and February," the analyst explained.

According to her, there is usually a slowdown in budget spending growth in the coming months. Achieving a structurally balanced budget in Russia will not be easy, as evenly distributing expenses by month is a significant challenge.

"An increase in tax revenues from the progressive scale and an increase in income tax from 2025, as well as some temporary taxes on large companies, will work in favor of reducing the budget deficit," Milchakova summed up.

Export and hope for peace: what will determine the ruble exchange rate in the second quarter

The Russian currency will continue to be influenced by geopolitics.

Earlier, on March 5, the materials of the Ministry of Finance stated that Russia received 771.3 billion rubles of oil and gas revenues in February 2025. As the ministry reported in January, the expected volume of additional oil and gas revenues of the federal budget is projected in February 2025 in the amount of 101.2 billion rubles. At the same time, the basic income level for February amounted to 682.1 billion rubles. Thus, real incomes exceeded the basic income level by 13.5%.