Telecom market experts gave their forecasts for 2025

Telesputnik spoke about the market forecasts for the next three quarters of 2025.

Despite the noticeable growth in the Russian telecommunications market in 2024, as well as the online cinemas adjacent to it, stagnation awaits in the near future. Blocking users (combating phone fraud) and a drop in interest in pay-TV are having an effect. According to experts, the growth can be maintained by increasing tariffs and rates on exclusive content.

So, last year, the Russian telecommunications market grew by 6.2% to 2 trillion rubles, mainly due to mobile communications, which accounted for 61% of the total industry revenue. This shows the widespread growing dependence on the mobile Internet. For comparison, in 2023, the growth was 5%, which indicates a gradual increase. At the same time, pay TV gained 1.9%, but lost more than 100,000 subscribers. This indicates a shift in preferences towards mobile content and Internet services. As well as the competition from online cinemas.

In the business environment, it is not customary to adjust indicators for the amount of inflation. Juggling data leads to much more "beautiful" results and does not provide a complete picture of the state of the industry. Meanwhile, taking into account official inflation, according to Rossstat data for 2024, which amounted to 9.52%, using the simplest mathematical operations (6.20 - 9.52), we get a negative growth of -3.32%. Pay TV – -7.62%. That is, the market is certainly growing relative to its previous indicators, but this growth is not enough. TMT Consulting's medium-term forecasts indicate an average annual market growth of 4% up to 2029. However, without an increase in mobile tariffs, at least to compensate for inflation, stagnation is possible. It will inevitably lead to a reduction in investments in network infrastructure and a decrease in the quality of services for the end user.

"The number of subscribers is not growing. The amount of money received for communication services is growing, because tariffs are increasing. The subscriber stagnation is obvious: the population is shrinking, and we have reached a maximum in subscriptions," a company representative explained to Telesputnik.

However, the expert noted that the situation is not the same throughout Russia. There are regions, as a rule, remote from the capitals, where the networks of the same Rostelecom or the big three companies are still being built. And new subscribers are joining them, which means that there is still a slight increase.

At the same time, Russian telecom companies are diversifying their business beyond traditional communication services. They are also becoming significant players in the markets of cloud technologies, digital TV, information security and video surveillance. This allows them to ensure stable growth. Mono communication services are no longer accepted.

For example, a subscription to paid video or TV content has long been included in the general package of telecom operators. Such connections within the framework of fixed home network access are a rule of good taste.

Experts attribute the future of the market to the development of ecosystem offers: not "Svyaz + TV", but the Internet, telephony and TV in packages with media services and streaming platforms, banking and insurance services, online education services and others. In the development strategy approved by the Government of the Russian Federation until 2035, the state plans to provide benefits and preferences to telecom companies: reduction of insurance premiums to 7.6%, reduction of income tax to 3%, cancellation of scheduled inspections of supervisory authorities until 2030, suspension of certain clauses of the Yarovaya Law related to video traffic storage and media capacity increase, indexation of telecom operators' tariffs, preferential loans for the purchase of telecommunications equipment. We are talking about providing loans to operators to increase 4G capacity and create 5G in cities with a population of more than 1 million and the capitals of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Among the constraining factors is the need for import substitution. The transition to domestic technologies and equipment requires time and significant investments, which can slow down the implementation of new projects and the increase in the cost of services. In fact, all telecom companies, large and small, are currently solving one big problem: how to achieve technological sovereignty with a limited number of domestic products and not stop business development. Migration from any software to another can affect subscribers, threaten to lose money and a negative perception of the quality of customer service, at least due to established habits.