JPMorgan predicted a recession in the United States due to Trump's duties

The import tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump will lead the United States into recession as early as 2025. This was announced on Saturday, April 5, by Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank.

"Now we expect real GDP to shrink under the weight of tariffs. For the whole year, we expect real GDP growth of -0.3% compared to the previous figure of 1.3%," Bloomberg quoted the economist as saying.

At the same time, the projected decline in economic activity will lead to a decrease in hiring and eventually lead to an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.3%.

Trade Warrior: How new US duties will affect the global economy

Donald Trump announced the introduction of fees for all products supplied to the United States.

On April 2, Trump announced large-scale measures: base tariffs of 10% are being introduced for all products supplied to the United States. For Europe, this figure has been increased to 20%, and for China — to 34%. In his speech, the president called April 2 the day when Americans will become rich again. The next day, the Chinese authorities decided to impose retaliatory duties of 34% on goods imported from the United States.

Yuri Ichkitidze, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, said on April 3 that the introduction of new duties could lead to a slowdown in US economic growth in 2025, as well as provoke an increase in inflation. According to him, the negative effect for the United States is associated with the "boomerang effect" — retaliatory measures and rising prices. Inflation may increase by 1-1.5% this year.