To leave and not return: The Constitutional Court of Korea approved the impeachment of the president

The Constitutional Court of the Republic of Korea has finally dismissed President Yoon Seok-young. Early presidential elections will be held in the country within two months, during which time the Prime Minister will continue to serve as president. The leader of the opposition, Lee Jae-myung, who is supported by almost half of the voters, has the best chance. Impeachment provides a chance to get out of the protracted constitutional crisis, but much depends on how supporters of the former South Korean leader accept the verdict, experts say.

Impeachment of the President of South Korea

The Constitutional Court of the Republic of Korea has approved the impeachment of President Yoon Seok-yeol, who was removed from office by the National Assembly (the country's unicameral parliament) after attempting to impose martial law in the country. The decision was made unanimously.

Recall that the political crisis in South Korea escalated on December 3, 2024 after Yoon Seok-young's decision to impose martial law and ban any political activity. He explained his move by the actions of "unscrupulous pro-North Korean anti-state forces," meaning the opposition, which launched the process of removing a number of officials and threatened to impeach Yun Seok-yeol himself because of corruption scandals involving, among others, his wife.

However, most of the deputies of the National Assembly of South Korea were able to gather and vote for the lifting of martial law. The President complied with their decision and lifted the regime in the early morning of December 4. And on December 14, Yoon Seok-young was removed from power pending the decision of the Constitutional Court.

The judges have now concluded that there was no legitimate reason to impose martial law. The Constitution allows this to be done only in case of war, armed conflict or other national emergencies. "The current martial law was imposed in violation of the basic criteria for martial law," the court said in its ruling.

Acting President, Prime Minister Han Dok-soo, who was reinstated by the Constitutional Court on March 24, called on all political forces to refrain from making statements that could provoke "illegal protests" and outbreaks of violence on the day of sentencing. To ensure order, 14,000 police officers were deployed to Seoul, and a special "vacuum zone" was created within a radius of 100-150 meters from the court. Yoon Seok-young's supporters greeted the news of the impeachment with tears. But his opponents, gathered in the center of Seoul, burst into jubilation after the verdict was announced.

From the very beginning, it was clear that the Constitutional Court would make a political decision, taking into account not only the extent to which the Constitution was violated, but also the reaction of public opinion, Konstantin Asmolov, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the ICSA RAS, told Izvestia. But the split in society was very great, and therefore the court deliberated for more than a month.

— In this sense, it is important that the decision was made unanimously, because experts were very afraid that judges appointed by the president and/or holding conservative views would vote for it, — the expert noted.

The verdict of the court was influenced by several factors. First, a large half of society was in favor of impeachment after all: according to the latest poll, the ratio of supporters and opponents of Yun's removal from power was 57% to 35%. This meant that a decision in favor of Yun would have caused much more protest, including campaigns of civil disobedience.

— Yun's return to power would return the country to a stalemate in which the parliament, where the opposition had an overwhelming majority, would continue to block any initiatives of the president, continuing to look for a reason for a new impeachment, and the president would not be able to do anything with parliament without emergency measures, which, as it turned out, are extremely unpopular, - said political scientist.

It is also necessary to take into account the factor of pressure on judges, especially from the opposition: some of its representatives explicitly said that judges who would not deprive Yun of power would become an analogue of the so-called "five traitors" who at one time handed Korea over to Japan, Asmolov stressed.

What is Yoon Seok Young accused of?

In addition to the impeachment, the former president of South Korea is being tried in several criminal cases. Back in December, the National Assembly passed a bill appointing a permanent special prosecutor to investigate charges of treason and rebellion, then a special representative was appointed in the case against his wife. She was accused of receiving gifts in excess of the allowed limit.

At the end of December 2024, the court issued an arrest warrant for the former president, but it was only on January 15 that Yoon Seok-young was detained after desperate resistance. He was placed in solitary confinement, and the security service was only allowed to accompany the ex-head of state during interrogations. Yoon was released from prison in March, and the court found that there had been procedural violations during his arrest.

The main accusation against the former head of the Republic of Korea is organizing a rebellion. According to Korean law, if convicted, the politician faces life imprisonment or the death penalty.

Other members of the former South Korean leader's entourage are also under investigation. Yun Seok's closest associate, former Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun, tried to commit suicide in a Seoul detention center, where he is being held on charges of rebellion. Another of his associates, the head of military counterintelligence, Ye In Hyun, said during interrogation that the president had planned to impose martial law since the summer of 2024.

Yun's political life is most likely over, and the opposition will try to pour as much tar on him as possible. In addition, a case of rebellion has been opened against him, which in such circumstances will end in a guilty verdict, Asmolov told Izvestia.

How will the situation develop in South Korea

According to the constitution, snap presidential elections will be held in South Korea within 60 days of the verdict. At this time, Prime Minister Han Dok-soo will continue to serve as head of state. The President of South Korea is elected for one five-year term without the possibility of re-election.

The leader of the United Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, who lost only 0.2% of the vote to Yun in the last election, is likely to claim the presidency. A week earlier, the Court of Appeal acquitted the opposition leader of violating the law on elections of public officials and overturned the November verdict of a lower court, which deprived him of the opportunity to participate in elections for the next 10 years. According to opinion polls, 48-49% of voters support him.

In second place, with 16-17% of support, is the likely candidate from the Yuna party "The Power of the People", Minister of Labor Kim Moon-soo. Two days ago, the first municipal elections were held since the introduction of martial law. Opposition candidates won in three of the five municipalities. Lee Jae-myung remains the favorite of the presidential election, but he also has problems.

— His anti-rating is high, he is still involved in several criminal cases, and this means that we must be prepared for unexpected turns, - Konstantin Asmolov emphasized.

The important question is to what extent Yun and his supporters, among whom there are enough radicals, will be able to peacefully accept the court's decision and whether an analog of the Capitol seizure in the United States will happen in South Korea, the political scientist concluded.