The expert warned of a "cooling" of the global oil market due to Trump's duties

The introduction of US duties against a number of countries, announced the day before by US President Donald Trump, will "cool" the global oil market, Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, told Izvestia on April 3. According to him, the average monthly price of Brent will not rise above $ 75 per barrel.

"The Trump administration's decision to impose mirror duties on foreign trading partners will increase the likelihood of a slowdown in the global economy, including due to high tariffs on China (34%)," he said.

According to the January forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China's GDP growth in 2025 will be 4.6%, in 2026 - 4.5%, against 4.8% in 2024.

However, as the expert noted, the actual growth rate may turn out to be even lower, since the United States remains the most important trading partner for China.

"According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, in 2024, the United States accounted for 15% of the revenue of Chinese exporters ($525 billion out of $3575 billion)," Tereshkin drew attention.

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He added that the risks of a slowdown in China's economy are superimposed on structural changes in demand. If in 2023 the demand for oil in China increased by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d), then over the next three years the increase should be only 900 thousand thousand b/d, according to OPEC's March forecast.

"It's all about the proliferation of electric vehicles. According to the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers, total passenger car sales in China in the first three months of 2025 reached 4.33 million units, of which 2.39 million (55%) were sales of electric cars, hybrids and fuel cell vehicles. This share will grow in the coming years, as Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles will lobby for the extrusion of [cars with] internal combustion engines. — Ed.) inside China, in order to compensate for losses in foreign markets," Tereshkin said.

In his opinion, this will curb the consumption of motor gasoline and, as a result, will affect the demand for oil.

"Therefore, the duties of the Trump administration will ultimately affect Brent oil prices, for which the threshold of $75 per barrel will now become the upper limit of fluctuations," the expert concluded.

The day before, it was reported that the American president declared a state of emergency in the country due to the trade imbalance. At the same time, he spoke about the establishment of a minimum rate of customs duties on imported goods in the amount of 10%. At the same time, individual tariffs have been determined for individual states, including duties of 20% on goods from the European Union (EU), 34% on goods from the People's Republic of China. In addition, the US administration has imposed customs duties of 25% on all imported cars.