NASA has increased the probability of the Moon colliding with an asteroid in 2032

The newly discovered asteroid YR4 has a 3.8% chance of colliding with the Moon in December 2032. This was announced on April 2 by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

"Experts from NASA's Center for Near—Earth Object Research at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated the probability of a 2024 YR4 collision with the Moon on December 22, 2032 from 1.7% as of the end of February to 3.8% based on data from the [James] Webb telescope and observations from ground-based telescopes," the statement said.

At the same time, the scientists emphasized that with a 96.2% probability the asteroid will not collide with the Earth's satellite and will fly by. Moreover, even if a celestial body falls on the Moon, there is a possibility that this will not affect the change in its orbit in any way.

The near-Earth asteroid YR4 was first discovered in December 2024.

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On March 1, astronomer Leonid Elenin predicted a meteor shower after an asteroid collided with the moon. It is noted that a space object can fly past the Earth or collide with the Moon. However, the exact orbit of the asteroid will not be known until 2028.