Interim pretexts: how is the dialogue between Russia and the United States progressing
There is no concrete talk about new negotiations between Russia and the United States on the Black Sea Initiative yet, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's international Affairs committee, told Izvestia. It was he who acted as the Russian representative at the recent consultations between Moscow and Washington in Riyadh. At the same time, the second round of consultations between Russian and American representatives on the resumption of normal work of the diplomatic missions of the two countries is currently being prepared. Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, is also expected to meet with the American delegation in the United States. Despite the ongoing Russian-American dialogue through various channels, Kiev continues to violate the agreements reached in March, our diplomats note.
Prospects for the resumption of the Black Sea Initiative
Talks about new negotiations between the Russian Federation and the United States on the resumption of the Black Sea Initiative are not underway yet, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs committee, told Izvestia.
— I can't comment on that. We live in a changing world, but so far there is no concrete talk about this. But, of course, life will tell you," Grigory Karasin said, answering a question from Izvestia regarding the possibility of organizing a second meeting in this area.
Earlier, it was Grigory Karasin and Sergey Beseda, adviser to the head of the FSB, who took part in Russian-American consultations in Riyadh on March 24. Moscow and Washington have previously agreed to resume the Black Sea Initiative, which was signed in Istanbul in July 2022. The grain deal ceased to be valid in the summer of 2023. Now we are talking, in fact, about the reanimation of previous agreements, according to which Moscow should gain access to the export of agricultural products and fertilizers to the world market, and Ukraine should organize the export of its agricultural products.
However, as Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted, the previous time the Black Sea agreement "was implemented in the part that concerned Ukraine," but it was never implemented in the part that concerned Russia. The lifting of sanctions against Rosselkhoznadzor is an integral part of the initiative. However, Brussels refused to lift restrictions on this structure, and therefore to resume the bank's access to the SWIFT system.
The Europeans will monitor the dynamics of the Ukrainian settlement, but they will not abandon sanctions in the near future, said Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
— It is a fact that the United States is a significant economic player and has created a system that still operates around the world, including the EU. I think that even if this issue is resolved at the bilateral level between the Russian Federation and the United States, it will already be a significant success. Now the situation is developing not in the context of the confrontation between the West and Russia, but according to the formula "every man for himself." If Europe sees that sanctions continue to harm the EU itself, it is possible that they will reconsider this position. In any case, the ice has broken," Konstantin Blokhin noted.
Experts believe that the Trump administration is capable of exerting pressure on Brussels, given the economic influence of the United States. However, according to Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of Political Theory at MGIMO, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, "many decisions in EU institutions require unanimity, which makes the lifting of sanctions unlikely." In addition, in Washington, according to Konstantin Blokhin, "hawks" from both parties are blocking a softening of the course, which limits Donald Trump's maneuverability.
"For him, Ukraine is a chance to gain political capital and peacemaker status, but getting out of the conflict without losing image is almost impossible," the expert added.
The Russian Federation and the United States also agreed to develop measures to implement the agreements reached by the presidents of the two countries (Putin and Trump called twice this year, on February 12 and March 18) to ban attacks on energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine for a period of 30 days starting on March 18, 2025, with the possibility of extending and withdrawing from the agreement in case of non—compliance. one of the parties. However, Kiev refuses to comply with these conditions.
"The moratorium is not being observed, the energy facilities of the Russian Federation have been under attack all this time, maybe with a break of one or two days," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
According to him, the Russian army strictly adheres to the agreements reached by the leaders of the two countries on March 18. A list of violations by the Ukrainian side, compiled by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, was handed over to US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Russian representatives to the UN and OSCE.
In recent weeks alone, Ukrainian drones have attacked oil storage facilities in the Rostov Region and tried to disable power plants in the Krasnodar Territory. The explosion of the Sudzha gas measuring station in the Kursk region has been classified as a terrorist act. According to Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin will continue to provide the United States with information about all attempts to sabotage the peace process by Ukraine.
Sergey Lavrov notes that Moscow needs "not promises, but concrete deeds" to resume the Black Sea initiative. Washington, according to Lavrov, is studying the Russian proposals, but is not yet ready for their full-scale implementation.
Moreover, Vladimir Zelensky announced preparations for a meeting with military representatives of countries ready to deploy troops on Ukrainian territory. Moscow has repeatedly spoken about the inadmissibility of deploying Western troops in Ukraine under any pretext.
New negotiations between Russia and the United States
Despite the lack of specifics on the issue of the Black Sea Initiative, the parties are preparing for a new round of negotiations in a different direction. According to Sergey Lavrov, the second meeting between Russia and the United States on the resumption of normal work of diplomatic missions is already in development. The first one was held in Istanbul on February 27. After her, the new Russian ambassador, Alexander Darchiev, went to the United States.
Lavrov noted the "emerging progress" in the dialogue, stressing that the American partners demonstrate a desire to eliminate "unacceptable obstacles" to the functioning of diplomatic missions. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier that improving the work of diplomatic missions is also important for resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia and the United States plan to restore staff at the embassies for the normal functioning of diplomatic missions. The reduction in the number of diplomats has had a serious impact on the provision of consular services, in particular on the issuance of visas. Russians cannot receive them in Russia since the spring of 2021. In addition, the Russian delegation at the talks in Istanbul proposed to their American colleagues to restore air traffic.
The issue of the return of Russian diplomatic property seized in the United States seven years ago has also not been resolved. Despite the fact that the Biden administration has completely frozen the dialogue in this area, the new US authorities could positively consider this issue. This would indicate Washington's real intentions to normalize relations between the two countries.
The building of the Russian trade mission in Washington. The year 2018
In addition, the possibility of a visit to the United States by Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), special presidential representative for investment and economic cooperation with Foreign countries, is currently being discussed. He is scheduled to meet with Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff.
— I confirm that such a visit may be possible. We continue to communicate with the Americans through various channels," Dmitry Peskov said at a briefing, answering a question from Izvestia.
The American media write that in order to obtain a visa, the US Treasury temporarily lifted sanctions against Dmitriev.
Kirill Dmitriev, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund
According to Peskov, Trump's plans to visit Saudi Arabia in May are not related to a possible meeting with Putin. Nevertheless, the Kingdom remains an important platform for contacts between Russia and the United States.
The dialogue between Russia and the United States is facing a lack of understanding of each other, Ivan Loshkarev believes.
— In the United States, political discourse is dominated by the idea of Russia's "bullying" behavior and that a strong institution of the presidency leads to the reproduction of imperial ambitions. Few people in the United States realize how much restraint and lack of contradictions are valued in Russia. In turn, there is an incorrect belief in Russia that Americans behave cynically and are guided by nothing but benefits. However, the value component in the United States is very important: Americans are convinced of superiority in school, and dialogue on equal terms and acceptance of other value systems do not fit well into their worldview," Ivan Loshkarev noted.
According to him, this fundamental misunderstanding is reflected in the entire security architecture in Europe: where Russia is trying to create common benefits, Americans are looking for value proximity, and where Russia is trying to solve problems on its own, the United States sees attempts to restore empire.
The Trump administration, as stated in the White House, is "dissatisfied" with the actions of both sides of the conflict, but intends to continue efforts to resolve it. At the same time, the American media reported plans to impose "aggressive sanctions" against ships carrying Russian oil. According to American media sources, the effectiveness of current restrictions in the United States is estimated at "3 out of 10." Among the new measures, even a ban on the passage of such vessels through the Baltic Sea is being considered. However, Trump himself, commenting on possible economic measures, said that he did not want to impose "secondary duties" against Russia and intended to achieve a settlement.
As long as the parties are balancing between pressure and compromise, the dialogue remains fragile. Kirill Dmitriev's visit to the United States may be an indicator of Washington's willingness to make economic concessions, but without progress on the Ukrainian issue, progress in relations will remain illusory. As Blokhin noted, overcoming fundamental contradictions will take time and political will. In these circumstances, the main question remains whether the Trump administration, despite internal resistance, the positions of Europe and Ukraine, will be able to find a formula that will satisfy both sides.
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