Marine Le Pen was banned from participating in the French presidential election. Why is this important?

A court in Paris has found Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing National Unification party in the French parliament, and eight other deputies guilty of embezzlement of European Parliament funds in a case involving the creation of fictitious jobs. This means that the politician has lost the right to participate in the presidential election in 2027. The political consequences of this can be found in the Izvestia article.

What is the essence of the matter

• The investigation of the parliamentary assistants case began in 2014. From the very beginning, the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) demanded that Le Pen reimburse €339 thousand. She was accused of paying salaries to the head of her secretariat, Catherine Griese, and the security guard, Thierry Lejeune, from the funds of the European Parliament, even though they worked for her party.

• The investigation is confident that with the help of fictitious hiring of assistants in the European Parliament, a financial scheme was created for the appropriation of European funds. Among the suspects, in addition to Le Pen, were, in particular, the mayor of Perpignan, Louis Aliot, and the former vice-chairman of the National Association, Bruno Golnish. The prosecutor's office insisted on depriving Le Pen of her liberty for a period of five years and disenfranchising her for that period.

• Le Pen rejected the accusations against her and noted that the demands of the prosecutor's office were an attempt to destroy the party. The day before the verdict was announced, she expressed the hope that things would not come to the point of depriving her of the right to run and hold elected office.

• However, on March 31, Le Pen was sentenced to four years in prison and immediate disenfranchisement for five years. The politician will not go to jail, but she will have to wear an electronic bracelet for two out of four years. She is also required to pay a fine of €100,000.

• Le Pen will not be able to participate in the French presidential election in 2027, in which she is the favorite. According to opinion polls, the 56-year-old politician is significantly ahead of his rivals in the hypothetical first round. According to a study by the French Institute of Public Opinion, 38% of respondents are ready to vote for her.

• The judge explained his decision by the presence of evidence that Le Pen played a major role in the system of embezzlement of European Parliament funds. He also justified the verdict as a violation of public order and democratic functioning. The court estimated the total damage to the European Parliament at €2.9 million.

• Eight deputies and 12 parliamentary assistants were also convicted. The court estimated that the total damage caused to the European Parliament was €4 million. At the same time, the judges concluded that the convicts did not pursue the goal of personal enrichment, directing these funds to the needs of the party.

Criminal reprisals: Marine Le Pen was deprived of the right to participate in the 2027 elections.

How will the verdict of the leader of the French opposition affect the balance of political forces in the country

What is the reaction to the verdict

• Jordan Bardella, chairman of the National Association, believes that the court has unfairly condemned not only Le Pen, but also French democracy in general. By this decision, in his opinion, the democracy of Paris is "being executed."

• The Kremlin considers the situation surrounding Le Pen's sentence to be an internal matter of France, but generally noted that Europe is relying less and less on democracy in political processes. In turn, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stressed that the verdict shows the agony of liberal democracy.

• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban came out in support of Le Pen. According to him, France is plunging into an unpredictable whirlpool and may face protests similar to those in Romania after presidential candidate Calin Georgescu was not allowed to run. The same opinion was expressed by Karin Kneissl, former Austrian Foreign Minister and head of the St. Petersburg State University's G.O.R.K.I. Center.

How will Le Pen's verdict affect politics

• Besides Romania, political outsiders are already being harassed in other European countries. For example, in Austria, a ruling coalition was formed without the ultra-right that won the elections. And the German Bundestag was considering banning the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, whose popularity in the country exceeds 20%. Thus, several precedents allow us to predict with confidence that radical parties and political outsiders will continue to be oppressed in Europe.

• At the same time, in France itself, the verdict against Le Pen may increase public discontent with the judicial system, as her supporters regard the decision as politically motivated pressure. This can lead to an increase in protest sentiments and an even greater split among voters.

• In addition, Le Pen can use the verdict as a tool to consolidate her supporters, presenting herself as a victim of the system. In the long run, the outcome of the case will affect the course of the presidential race, changing the balance of power and potentially opening the way for new political figures.

When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• Natalia Eremina, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University;
• Sergey Fedorov, an expert on France and a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.