Aftershock condition: how will the earthquake affect the conflict in Myanmar
The earthquake in Myanmar has caused serious damage to the country's economy, experts interviewed told Izvestia. It is possible that the consequences of the disaster that occurred on March 28 may affect the further course of the civil conflict and the results of the parliamentary elections scheduled for the end of the year. According to the latest data, 1.7 thousand people were killed in Myanmar, 3.4 thousand were injured and about 300 were missing. At the same time, the damage from the largest earthquake in 80 years continues to grow, and according to various estimates may reach $70 billion. About how the consequences of the natural disaster will affect Myanmar's economy and politics, see the Izvestia article.
Powerful earthquake in Myanmar
There was unrest throughout the weekend in Southeast Asia. In three days, several earthquakes occurred in Myanmar at once. The most powerful quake was recorded on March 28 at 12:50 p.m. local time. According to various sources, its magnitude ranged from 7.7 to 7.9. 12 minutes later, a second earthquake of magnitude 6.4 occurred. The disaster affected Thailand, where at least 17 people died and 83 were missing, as well as China, Vietnam, India and Laos.
Two days later, on Sunday, another 5.1 magnitude earthquake (aftershock) occurred near the city of Mandalay in Myanmar. As a result, many buildings were destroyed and infrastructure was damaged, including the city's airport. Mandalay is the second largest city with a population of about 1.5 million people. This region has suffered the most from the natural disaster.
According to media reports, to date, as a result of the disaster, 1.7 thousand people have died, 3.4 thousand have been injured and about 300 are missing.
The earthquake in Myanmar has become the largest in the last 80 years. Rescue teams from China, India, Singapore, Thailand and the Russian Federation were sent to help the country's authorities. The Russian Emergencies Ministry detachment became part of the international operational headquarters – it was formed at Naypyidaw Airport.
On the morning of March 30, the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation reported that an advanced group of 20 rescuers, dog handlers and UAS operators had been sent to Mandalay by a small aircraft. Another group of 10 specialists from the Ministry of Emergency Situations moved to the site in high-speed vehicles.
The only way to deliver special equipment to the epicenter of the earthquake is aviation, as the infrastructure in Myanmar has been destroyed by the elements, Izvestia correspondent Alexander Morozov reported from the scene.
"Roads were destroyed, bridges collapsed — a convoy of cars would not have passed through them, so the planes took our rescuers to the place within an hour," he said.
Rescue and recovery work continues. The head of the consolidated detachment of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, Sergei Vorontsov, said that there are still chances to find people alive under the rubble. An IL-76 aircraft with an airmobile hospital and an additional group of rescuers and medics arrived in Myanmar to help the victims. In total, at least three planes with more than 120 emergency personnel were sent to the disaster area.
There is no information about the dead and injured Russians as a result of the earthquakes yet. Izvestia sent a corresponding request to the Russian Embassy in Myanmar.
The West also decided not to stand aside and send financial assistance to the affected country. For example, the UK has promised to allocate up to 10 million pounds (about $12.9 million) to Myanmar. The European Commission announced plans to allocate €2.5 million at the initial stage. The United States also intends to provide its assistance.
The UN has already allocated $5 million to Myanmar and other affected regions. The World Organization noted that the natural disaster has worsened the "already difficult humanitarian situation" in Myanmar.
How the earthquake will affect the civil conflict
The natural disaster dealt a new blow to the country amid the ongoing crisis: after the military came to power in 2021, Myanmar has not recovered from the consequences of the civil conflict.
Myanmar's military ousted the civilian government in February 2021. This was done on the basis of the article of the Constitution, according to which the army is its main guarantor. They claimed large-scale fraud in favor of the National League for Democracy (NLD) in the November 2020 parliamentary elections. The country plunged into a civil conflict, the victims of which were, according to human rights activists, more than 6 thousand people.
The transfer of power to the military sparked a massive protest movement of NLD supporters, which was harshly suppressed by the police and military, after which some of the opposition switched from street protests to armed struggle. Detachments of the "people's defense forces" have been created, which use guerrilla tactics and practice attacks on local administrative bodies, including assassinations of officials and explosions of improvised explosive devices.
Along with the political opposition, after the transfer of power to the military, ethnic groups that had previously participated in the civil war in Myanmar (then Burma), which lasted from 1949 to the mid-1990s, also became more active. Ethnic "armies" fought in it against the country's central government, which was military from 1962 to 2011.
According to UN estimates, about 20 million people will need humanitarian assistance this year — one third of Myanmar's population. The World Organization predicts that in 2025, about 15 million people may face acute food shortages. Fighting between the authorities and opposition armed groups has led to the forced displacement of more than 3.5 million people inside the country. The International Committee of the Red Cross states that a humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Myanmar after the earthquake.
— The data on economic damage varies: it can range from $10 to $70 billion. This will have disastrous economic consequences for Myanmar," Alexander Korolev, a political scientist, Candidate of political Sciences, deputy director of the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. — Because of this, Myanmar will become much more dependent on various foreign donors, in particular, China, the EU, South Korea, Japan and Australia, and for a long time.
The expert recalled that Myanmar is under sanctions from the United States, the EU and Canada, which were imposed after the transition of power to the military, and now the economic situation will worsen. In addition, a natural disaster could negatively affect Myanmar's export potential, as well as energy and food security.
It is possible that the consequences of the natural disaster will have an impact on the socio-political situation in Myanmar ahead of the general (parliamentary) elections to be held at the end of the year. 53 parties have already registered to participate in them. The other day, the head of the Government of Myanmar, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, confirmed that after the elections, power will be transferred to a civilian government consisting of representatives of the parties that won the elections.
The opposition, which does not recognize the government in Naypyidaw, will try to use the consequences of the earthquake, says the director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies (ISAA) Moscow State University Alexey Maslov. Earlier, the military wing of the opposition stated that, against the background of the natural disaster, it undertakes to observe a two-week ceasefire in areas affected by the earthquake in order to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid.
— They say that for the duration of the current situation, it is necessary to stop any hostilities. Theoretically, this should increase their rating," the orientalist told Izvestia. — It all depends on how the government will behave. So far, it is doing everything quite competently. The authorities emphasize the unity of the people, and this can consolidate people around the Myanmar authorities. Therefore, I believe that there will be no major changes in the near future.
An earthquake could set Myanmar's development back years, but the Myanmar military government has managed to stabilize the economy over the past year and a half, the analyst added. As for the opposition, it mainly has influence on the periphery, receiving support mainly from the United States and France.
Last year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Western countries, by financing and supporting the radical opposition, were trying to restrain political processes in Myanmar and hinder the settlement of the situation in the country. Earlier, the media reported that armed groups were asking the United States for "non-lethal assistance" worth more than $500 million, including drones, armored vehicles and radar jamming equipment.
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