Fighter of discord: The United States wanted to supply Turkey with the F-35
The United States is offering Turkey to take apart the S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems purchased from the Russian Federation, or transport them to the Incirlik US military base. In return, Ankara is offered access to F-35 fighter jets and the unfreezing of export licenses for the Turkish Defense Industry secretariat, allowing for purchases of American military equipment. But everything depends on the position of Israel, which considers the republic a "new regional threat" and categorically opposes the rearmament of the Turkish Air Force. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Fighter jets in exchange for missile systems
"Turkey and the United States have clearly demonstrated their political will to remove obstacles to cooperation in the defense industry. Technical meetings will be held to resolve existing problems," Al—Monitor reported, citing a source, following talks between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his American counterpart Marco Rubio in Washington.
S-400 anti-aircraft missile system
The parties agreed to start technical negotiations to lift the defense sanctions imposed by Donald Trump on the Republic of Turkey five years ago, during his first term as president, in retaliation for Ankara's purchase of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems from Moscow.
Restrictive measures against Turkey operate within the framework of the Law on Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions (CAATSA). However, if the sanctions are lifted, Ankara may return to the American program of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets and unfreeze licenses for the export of US defense products.
Turkey paid the United States $1.4 billion for the planes, but the delivery of fifth-generation fighters never took place. As Washington explained at the time, "the F-35 cannot exist with a Russian intelligence gathering platform."
According to Fox News, in return, Washington offers Ankara to disable the S-400: either disassemble them in parts, or transport them to the American Incirlik base in Turkey.
Previously, the Turkish authorities refused to even consider such an idea. However, amid the protests in Turkey over the arrest of the opposition mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, Ankara may need support from Washington.
Protests in Ankara
In the USA, they have shown that they are not against providing it. At a meeting at the White House with newly confirmed American ambassadors, Donald Trump expressed his opinion about Turkey, noting that it is "a good country, and its leader is also good."
During a conversation with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, the US Secretary of State did not talk about concerns about arrests and the suppression of mass protests in Turkey, thus showing tacit support for Ankara. At the same time, the State Department's message casually notes that this topic was raised during the conversation.
Israel's interests
On the eve of Hakan Fidan's visit to Washington, the Turkish president said that "US-Turkish relations may gain a new impetus during the second presidential term of Donald Trump."
According to him, last week he had a telephone conversation with his American counterpart, which "took place in a cordial atmosphere." He also added that now Ankara and Washington "will be able to reach a new level of interaction despite the difficulties in the region" and despite "lobbyists who are trying to poison the cooperation of the two allies."
However, possible deliveries of the F-35 are not so simple. With these fifth-generation fighter jets, barely visible to radar, Washington maintains Israel's qualitative military superiority in the region.
The F-35 fighter jet
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposes allowing anyone other than Tel Aviv in the Middle East to have access to the F-35. Israel is ready to make an exception only for the UAE, which in 2020 normalized relations with it within the framework of the "Abraham agreements".
Relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara soured in October 2023. They escalated even more after the regime change in Damascus, which led to the strengthening of Turkey's position in Syria.
Given that Israel considers Turkey to be a "new regional threat," it will categorically oppose American deliveries of F-35s to Ankara.
What do the experts think
Vladimir Avatkov, Doctor of Political Sciences, head of the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that Washington had sent Ankara a positive signal of support.
— This is the meeting between Fidan and Rubio, and Trump's words about the "good country of Turkey" and "good leader Erdogan." Besides, so far the protesters are not getting their way, but only weakening the Turkish economy, the political scientist is sure.
Alina Sbitneva, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the United States and Turkey have been discussing the issue of supplying fighter jets for a long time.
— The imposition of these sanctions is a kind of miscalculation by the American administration. The United States wanted to scare Turkey and keep it on a short leash, but in reality they only distanced themselves even more and once again convinced them of the need to diversify contact, including in the defense sector," the Turkologist explained.
According to the political scientist, the problem that arose for Turkey, on the one hand, was even beneficial, because for a long time the topic of the F-35 remained a subject of bargaining.
— The Turkish country also always reminded its American partners that, they say, how can you treat a NATO ally in this way and where is the very first step on your part, — the expert emphasized.
She added that during the recent talks in Washington, among others, the issue of protests in defense of opposition politician Ekrem Imamoglu was raised. Turkey is now looking for support due to the difficult internal political situation and, probably, realizing that the protests are supported, including from the outside, the analyst believes.
In her opinion, the United States would like to return Ankara "to the bosom of the Western world."
— And the arrival of the new-old administration was supposed to give an impetus and erase past misunderstandings. But, again, you really shouldn't rely on Trump, because, let me remind you, the problems due to the embargo and increased duties on Turkish steel and aluminum in 2018, which brought down the lira's exchange rate to a minimum, began precisely during his first presidential term," the interlocutor comments.
Sbitneva added that on top of everything else, Turkey, as always, is trying to sit on two stools:
— Earlier, its officials insisted in unison that the S-400 issue was closed and no one was going to abandon the systems. But Turkey is now in a very vulnerable position. Let's see to what extent the American negotiators managed to push her through on this issue.
She also added that relations with Russia are also important in many ways, and the Turkish authorities understand this well. According to the expert, such a rapprochement does not bode well for Moscow.
— And even if we assume that Turkey still succumbed to provocations, then the reaction of the Russian Federation should be harsh and extremely clear, since the very fact of such cooperation with a NATO country carries certain risks. And if a partner country starts to cheat, then, of course, the appropriate reaction should be clearly communicated to the Turkish leadership," the Turkologist summed up.
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