The silence in the Middle East did not last long. And here's why
On March 15, the United States resumed airstrikes in Yemen due to the ongoing instability in the Red Sea, in response, the Houthis attacked the American navy. Three days later, Israel violated the ceasefire in Gaza. Why the Middle East has flared up again, what interest this region represents for the United States and how the escalation of the conflict will affect Russia — in the Izvestia article.
There are too many players
• Another round of armed conflict between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas began on October 7, 2023, after a militant attack on northern Israel and hostage-taking. In response, Tel Aviv has been attacking the Gaza Strip for more than a year. The Yemeni Houthis came out in support of Gaza, attacking Israeli and American ships in the Red Sea, which generally jeopardized the safety of navigation in the waters.
• The fighting in the region stopped only on January 19 of this year, when the efforts of the outgoing US administration and the team of the victorious presidential candidate Donald Trump managed to convince the parties to cease fire and return most of the hostages. The conflict was frozen for two months. On March 18, Israel resumed attacks on the Gaza Strip. Three days earlier, the United States launched preemptive strikes on Yemen.
The Arab-Israeli conflict arose after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire as a result of the First World War over claims to the territory of Palestine and has not subsided to this day. And the aggressive expansion of the territory and the seizure of border areas by Israel in the 70s and 80s of the last century aggravated its relations with its neighbors. One of Israel's most implacable rivals are the Houthis, members of the religious and political group Ansar Allah.
The Houthis control four provinces of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa. The other part of the country is controlled by the Saudi-backed government. Riyadh, in turn, cooperates with the United States and maintains neutrality towards Israel. Due to the Houthis' involvement in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the settlement of internal differences in Yemen has been suspended.
• Lebanon and Syria are also parties to the Arab-Israeli conflict, since part of the territories of these countries — the hills in southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights in Syria — are controlled by Israel (we discussed in detail why Israel is currently benefiting from the conflict in the Middle East here).
• Another major player in the Middle East region is Iran, which supports the Palestinian movement Hamas and the Houthis. According to the US, they intend to put pressure on Iran with their attacks on Yemen. According to analysts, Tehran and the Houthis are really cooperating, because they have common enemies — besides the United States and Israel, these are radical Sunni movements. But the Houthis are independent players with their own interests and goals in the region, and Iran has recently taken a more cautious position in the conflict, so attacks on Yemen are unlikely to force Tehran to change its policy (we discussed more about the relationship between Israel and Iran here).
High importance of the region
• Middle Eastern states are rich in natural resources, primarily oil and gas, which partly explains the interest in them from many Western countries. Saudi Arabia has been a leading supplier of crude oil to the United States for decades, and as one of the OPEC members continues to play an important role in pricing the oil market. Even after the United States reduced purchases, Riyadh remains an important trading partner and a major investor for them.
• The Middle East is a strategically and geographically important region located between Asia, Europe and Africa, so the United States is interested in having its sphere of influence and its military bases here, and controlling trade routes. Israel has historically been the United States' longest—standing and most loyal ally in the region, which is why Washington provides it with full support.
Instability in the Middle East can be beneficial to the United States, as it weakens individual states and prevents the creation of strong alliances between Arab states, among which there are practically no allies of Israel.
• It is possible that US President Donald Trump intends to change the geography of the region, where many states are artificial, formed as a result of the First and Second World Wars. It is possible to expand Israel's borders and create new geopolitical projects, as evidenced by Trump's plans to resettle Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.
• Trump's intention to bring an end to the Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible may be related to US interests in the Middle East. The Trump administration has repeatedly stated that it takes too much money and effort to maintain Kiev's combat capability, and helping Israel has always been a higher priority for the United States than supporting Ukraine.
Allies are needed to control the region.
• Large and prolonged conflicts in the Middle East are unprofitable for the United States, as they require large investments to maintain Israel's defense capability. Therefore, Trump sought a peace agreement between Israel, Palestine and Lebanon. But the United States itself does not have enough allies in the region to achieve lasting peace.
• Currently, US policy has set a course towards establishing diplomatic relations with Russia. At the talks, the parties are discussing not only the settlement of the situation in Ukraine, but also the nuclear deal with Iran, which is a Russian ally. On March 4, the Western press reported that Russia had agreed to mediate in the US negotiations with Iran — it is extremely important for Washington to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. So far, only Israel has it in the region, and even then it has not been officially recognized by Tel Aviv.
Cooperation with Russia in the Middle East is also important for Trump because the United States has lost its traditional allies, Britain and France, due to its position on Ukraine and Europe's role in NATO. After the introduction of duties on European goods, relations between the countries have further deteriorated, and it is very doubtful that the United States would risk involving Paris or London in resolving the conflict in the Middle East.
During the preparation of the Izvestia material, we talked and took into account the opinions of:
- Mais Kurbanov, a political scientist and specialist in the Middle East;
- Stanislav Tarasov, an expert on the problems of the Middle East and the Caucasus;
- Timofey Bokov, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Researcher at the Center for South Arabian Studies at the Institute of Classical Oriental and Antiquity at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
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