Hit by tariff: inflation in the US will double due to Trump's new duties

The new import duties that US President Donald Trump has decided to impose on foreign cars and fuel buyers from Venezuela will lead to higher prices within the country. Such measures will come into force on April 2. Currently, inflation in America is at 2.8%, but due to such actions it may rise to 5%, experts polled by Izvestia believe. Despite the fact that such a trade policy does not have a direct impact on Russia, our country can strengthen the market of the domestic automotive industry and receive additional income in the event of an increase in oil prices. Why Trump decided to enter a new round of trade wars is in the Izvestia article.

What will happen to the US economy due to the new duties

On March 26, US President Donald Trump ordered the introduction of 25% import duties on cars and their components. According to him, such measures are being introduced forever — this step will protect and strengthen the American automotive sector, as well as bring in annual revenue of $ 100 billion.

In addition, on March 24, the American leader announced tariffs against countries that buy oil from Venezuela due to the fact that Caracas allegedly secretly sent criminals to the United States. He explained that all the purchasing states of Venezuelan raw materials will begin to pay a duty of 25% on any goods they supply to the United States. All these restrictions will come into force on April 2.

Donald Trump adheres to an isolationist approach in politics: he advocates protectionism in trade, protection of the US economy and encouragement of investment within the country. Earlier, he was going to impose duties of 25% on neighboring countries — Canada and Mexico, but at the last moment postponed this measure to April 2.

Also, since February, mutual measures have been in effect between China and the United States on products — first, Washington imposed tariffs of 10% against Beijing's products, and Beijing, in turn, responded with 15% tariffs on American coal and liquefied natural gas, as well as duties of 10% on oil and agricultural equipment. Later, in March, the United States announced additional 10% surcharges on the same list of products. In response, China imposed duties of 15% on American chicken, wheat, corn and cotton, as well as a 10% surcharge on soybeans, pork, and beef.

Such measures will lead to an increase in prices in America from 3.5% to 5%, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. As Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam, clarified, tariff news is already actively influencing inflation expectations — this may have secondary effects on price increases. Currently, inflation in the country is about 2.8% with a target of 2%.

America's economy itself will also slow down. By the end of 2024, the country's GDP grew by 2.8%. The analysts surveyed are confident that this indicator will slow down to 1.8–2% in 2025.

Trump's tariff war: what consequences await the global economy

Since March 4, 2025, the United States has sharply increased duties on goods from China, Mexico and Canada.

The actions of the American administration so far have been rather chaotic and contradictory — Trump first threatens to introduce measures, and then freezes them, Olga Belenkaya noted.

Nevertheless, tariffs are part of a big strategy of the President of the United States to solve the problem of public debt and eliminate the budget deficit, Pavel Sevostyanov, associate professor of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio—Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, is convinced. According to the latest data, America's national debt has crossed the $36.6 trillion mark. Immediately after the inauguration, the new president promised to solve this problem.

What will happen to the American car industry in 2025

The expansion of foreign brands in the US market, combined with local dumping (selling at artificially low prices), dealt a severe blow to the American automotive industry. At the same time, the export potential of the American automotive industry remained unrealized to the full, independent expert Andrey Barkhota drew attention.

The largest suppliers of vehicles to the U.S. market are Germany, Canada, Mexico, South Korea and Japan, said Olga Belenkaya from Finam. For example, Honda, Nissan and Toyota sell about 30% of their new cars to America.

Cars are one of the largest imports in monetary terms in the United States, said Dmitry Pozdnyakov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. For the whole of 2024, almost 16 million new passenger cars were sold, including SUVs and pickups. He added that about 50% of them were imported from other countries. At the same time, the remaining 8 million American cars sold mainly have imported components.

The introduction of duties carries great risks. American automakers will have to rebuild their supply chains and increase their capacity utilization within the country, Dmitry Pozdnyakov believes. In addition, for ordinary citizens, the new duties will lead to an increase in car prices — the cost of cars will increase by 25% due to higher costs for imported components and finished cars, Pavel Sevostyanov from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics believes.

Against the background of Trump's decision, shares of American General Motors and Ford Motor fell by more than 5%.

Duties will affect not only the States, but also the supplier states. Producers will have reduced export revenues and jobs, Olga Belenkaya emphasized.

What will happen to oil prices in 2025 due to US tariffs

Another task that Donald Trump has set for himself as head of state is to strengthen borders and combat illegal migration. Under the presidency of Nicolas Maduro, about 8 million people left Venezuela, some of them illegally entered the United States, said Sergey Pigarev, analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

In recent years, Venezuela has been increasing its oil production and exports. The first one increased by 15% in 2024, to 871 thousand barrels per day. In addition, the United States was the second largest importer of Venezuelan oil after China last year, purchasing about 222,000 barrels per day compared with 351,000 barrels per day from China.

Oil prices: how the flows of Russian raw materials will change amid the US tariff wars

The possible lifting of the ceiling on our fuel will increase its competitiveness and simplify negotiations with importers.

Reports of new restrictions led to an increase in the cost of oil — for example, the price of Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange at 18:00 Moscow time was $73.9 per barrel, which is 1.2% higher than at the close of previous trading. However, by 15:00 Moscow time on March 27, it dropped slightly to $73.5 per barrel.

"The degree of impact of the new restrictions on Venezuela on world prices of black gold will depend on the rate of decline in exports from the country and the desire of OPEC+ to replace the falling volumes," added Sergey Pigarev.

How Trump's new tariffs will affect the Russian economy

The increase in car tariffs will not have a direct impact on Russia, says Olga Belenkaya from Finam. However, machine suppliers can redistribute their exports to other markets with an increase in their supply and at more attractive prices. She clarified that in the context of external economic pressure, this is most likely relevant for Chinese exporters. The Russian automotive industry will also strengthen its position in the domestic market, added Pavel Sevostyanov from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

At the same time, if oil prices rise due to duties on Venezuela, this will have a positive impact on the Russian budget. According to the budget law, oil and gas revenues are expected to amount to 10.9 trillion in 2025.