Nice entry: which companies besides Ariston can return to the Russian Federation

Other foreign organizations may return to Russia after Ariston. As experts told Izvestia, first of all, we can talk about American business and brands such as Apple, Microsoft, HP, as well as oil companies. They may also be representatives of firms that have transferred their assets to the temporary management of the state, while retaining the possibility of return. The Russian authorities have already declared their readiness for such a scenario. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, speaking in the State Duma on March 26, named two main conditions for the resumption of foreign business in Russia: first of all, companies that left under pressure from their governments, as well as those who continued to operate through their subsidiaries and responsibly treated labor collectives, will be able to return.

Why did Ariston decide to return to Russia

The Italian company Ariston has announced its return to Russia. She resumed operational control over her Russian division after Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision yesterday to lift temporary external control over her. She announced this on her official website.

"We are very pleased with the decision of the Russian authorities to reinstate the Ariston Group as the owner and manager of our Russian subsidiary. We believe that this reflects the appreciation of decades of good faith investments and management, our dedication to more than 300 Russian employees, and the continued operations of the company's local business," Paolo Merloni, Executive Chairman of the Ariston Group, said in a statement.

According to him, the company will resume work with the Russian division, but will continue to comply with the sanctions that have been announced against Russia. In addition, Paolo Merloni noted that this event will require the Ariston Group Board of Directors to review its previous decision of August 2024 on the deconsolidation of Ariston Thermo Rus and accounting for related losses.

Just before Vladimir Putin's decision to return Ariston's assets, Cabinet Minister Mikhail Mishustin, speaking in the State Duma on March 26, said that Western companies could return to Russia if a number of conditions were met. At the same time, the decision on each of them will be made by a "special commission". According to him, first of all, the government will consider businesses that did not declare their departure from Russia and continued to operate through their subsidiaries, taking responsibility for the workforce.

In addition, foreign companies that left "under pressure from governments" but retained "jobs, contacts, technologies" and the opportunity to return will be able to resume work. The Prime Minister also noted that the return of companies with unique competencies, but in compliance with localization and investment requirements, would be welcome.

On March 13, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was negotiating the return of a number of foreign companies to the Russian market. The Head of State noted that the discussions were being held "behind closed doors" and at the initiative of "some of our partners." He said this during a press conference with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko on the eve of a meeting with US President Donald Trump's special envoy Stephen Witkoff.

He stressed that Russia "did not shut itself off from anyone and did not expel anyone." "To those who want to return, we say 'welcome,' welcome at any second," Vladimir Putin said.

And on March 18, the head of state ordered to develop a procedure for the return of foreign companies to the Russian market. He noted that some of them sold the business at a discount, but when they return, they should not buy it back at the same low cost.

Izvestia sent requests to the government and the Ministry of Industry and Trade asking them to clarify the conditions under which Ariston returned to Russia, as well as whether they expect other organizations to return. In addition, Izvestia addressed questions to the Italian company.

What other companies can return to Russia and when?

According to various expert estimates, since 2022, about 60% of foreign companies have left Russia since the beginning of the sanctions. Most of them are from Finland, Norway, Iceland, the USA, Great Britain, Germany, less from Belgium, Italy and Switzerland.

At the same time, the assets of some of the remaining companies that continue to operate in the Russian market were transferred to temporary state management. Last year, for example, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported that it was talking about 10 such organizations. According to Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the HSE Center for Economic Research and Economic Development, they may be the first to return to managing their assets in Russia, as Ariston did.

— If this company has made a decision, it means that it benefits from it, despite the losses it has suffered from leaving. I admit that others may do the same, but Russia needs to create a favorable environment now. As for Ariston's statement on compliance with sanctions, even now we see the products of many departed foreign companies that are quietly sold in Russia. That is, formally, they are in favor of sanctions, but they do not want to lose profits," the expert explained.

At the same time, he recalled that China had not announced sanctions against Russia, but many of its banks had stopped accepting payments from the Russian Federation.

Obviously, the most interesting thing is to return to Russia for manufacturers of electronics that are not manufactured in our country, such as smartphones, says Denis Kuskov, CEO of TelecomDaily. There are practically no competitors for major international brands here — the so-called Russian smartphones are mostly manufactured in China, he added.

"It can be assumed in the light of recent global geopolitical changes that companies from the United States are more likely to return than from Europe, for example, Apple, Microsoft, HP," the expert believes.

Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group, believes that manufacturers from unfriendly Asian countries can resume work in Russia — the discussion of this issue is in full swing. He called the return of European companies unlikely in the near future.

Will American oil companies resume work in the Russian market

It would be interesting for American oil companies to re-enter energy production, as Russia has huge reserves of gas and oil, Sergei Pravosudov, director of the Institute of National Energy, told Izvestia.

— But you need to understand that for companies from the United States, Russian mineral resources are one of the many in the world. This will be beneficial only if sanctions are lifted and US allies return to the markets," the expert noted.

Earlier, Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), said that American oil companies were doing successful business in Russia. In his opinion, they will resume their work in the Russian market in the future.

— This positive picture of the resumption of work of American companies is overshadowed by two facts. First, before the sanctions are lifted, the return of foreign players to Russia will look, to put it mildly, inappropriate. Moreover, sanctions should be lifted not only by the United States, but also by the European Union," Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute, told Izvestia.

According to him, there is also a negative experience of Iran. After the lifting of some of the sanctions in 2016, major foreign players came to this country, but in 2018-2019, restrictive measures returned, and all foreigners quickly bowed out. Such a development should not be discounted when we are discussing someone's return to the country, the expert noted.

Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, on the contrary, does not think that American oil companies will show great interest in returning to Russia.

— Firstly, they are mainly focused on the development of projects in the United States today. Donald Trump's energy policy, conducted under the slogan "Storms, baby, storms!", opens up great opportunities for them to increase production in the country's shale fields and offshore areas, the expert explained.

Secondly, at the moment, production growth in Russia is artificially restrained due to the country's participation in the OPEC+ deal. That is, we have to reduce production even on existing projects and there is no need to start developing any new fields with the participation of American companies, he added.

— At the same time, one would expect the return of the "big four" American oilfield service giants to Russia. Although the domestic oil and gas industry is actively engaged in import substitution, there is still a demand for high—tech operations carried out by foreign service companies in our market," the expert noted.

If in 2014 the share of critically important foreign equipment in the oil and gas complex was 80%, then after 2025 the share of critically important Russian equipment may increase to 80%, according to Tamara Safonova, CEO of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-MEDIA).

According to her, Russian companies have adapted to the sanctions pressure, but the return of American companies to our market may rather fit into a comprehensive package of economic cooperation within the framework of ongoing peace initiatives.