A strong ruble will lead to a budget loss of almost 2 trillion rubles.
A strong ruble will lead to a budget loss of almost 2 trillion, experts interviewed by Izvestia predict. This will happen if the exchange rate to which oil and gas revenues are linked remains at current conditions — since the beginning of the year it has strengthened by almost 19% to 84 rubles per dollar.
The Ministry of Finance, based on the September macro forecast of the Ministry of Economy, budgeted for the 2025th dollar exchange rate of 96.5 rubles. However, due to the weakening of the "American" by 1 ruble, annual revenues to the budget of the Russian Federation decrease by 150-160 billion, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
In addition, earlier Finance Minister Anton Siluanov also spoke about the dependence of income on the exchange rate. At the same time, according to his estimate, a change in the exchange rate by 1 ruble leads to a decrease in revenue by 100 billion.
Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, explained that for many years the geopolitical risks of investing in the Russian economy have been embedded in the ruble exchange rate, but recently there has been a warming of relations between Russia and the United States.
The Central Bank is also gradually improving its estimates of the balance of payments, Natalia Pyrieva, an analyst at Cifra Broker, recalled. This means that the country is exporting more and importing less — because of this, the inflow of currency into the Russian Federation is higher than the outflow.
According to Milchakova, the average dollar exchange rate for the year will be 93-95 rubles. In this case, the budget losses from the strengthening of the national currency will not exceed half a trillion.
Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:
Income, but: a strong ruble will lead to a budget loss of almost 2 trillion
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