Back-and-forth offensive: is a Russian comeback in big-time football real?

Sensational news from overseas: Argentine journalist Nahuel Lanzon has leaked FIFA President Gianni Infantino allegedly launched the process of Russia's return to international tournaments. It's a serious claim, considering that just yesterday it seemed as unrealistic as landing humans on Mars. According to Lanzon, the process is already underway behind closed doors: behind-the-scenes conversations, subtle hints of a "big reintegration plan." And behind him, there was either an approving whisper or a restrained murmur. Izvestia tried to understand the situation.

Infantino's Rhetoric

The head of FIFA has been constantly throwing theses into the public space lately that "all countries should play football." But what about the political realities? Europe, or rather UEFA, is clearly in no hurry to rejoice at the prospects of Russia's return. UEFA is acutely dependent on the opinions of its members, among whom there are many dissatisfied. And according to Lanzon, Infantino can not just persuade, but put pressure on these associations: do you want further "financial privileges"? We'll have to meet them halfway. A fairy tale? Not a fact. In modern football, money is the decisive argument. In addition, the Argentine journalist says that Infantino's visit to the White House and a meeting with Donald Trump (another fan of "working with financial levers") could have triggered this whole mechanism.

Of course, UEFA is a serious player with its own interests. The policy of "distancing" from unnecessarily controversial topics has always been appreciated on this continent. But let's not kid ourselves: if FIFA takes a course to rehabilitate Russia, Europe will not give up without a fight. It is beneficial for some associations to show loyalty — they receive impressive payments, they will receive guaranteed support in their projects. Others, on the contrary, will start shouting about the "outrageous scandal." There is an undercover bargaining going on: who will lose how much and who will gain if Russia is returned.

Naturally, we are waiting for [Russia] to return to the world stage," Elkhan Mammadov, director of the Department of European National Associations of FIFA, told Izvestia.

The first steps

If the campaign officially becomes a reality, we can expect several "bridges" to return. Option number one is free friendly matches with teams that will not be afraid of reproaches from ultra-critics. We've already heard about the RFU's plans to play with the European national team. Is it at the level of "we are negotiating" today, and "welcome, Serbia (or Hungary, or Turkey)" tomorrow? There are few specifics in these signals, but there is hope: if we try the friendly format more often, sooner or later there will be ground for official tournament permits.

Option number two is to put pressure not only on UEFA, but also on individual unions (especially from countries that depend on financial injections from FIFA). Should we play somewhere on a neutral field under the auspices of "football diplomacy"? Why not? As soon as such precedents become widespread, the European federation will have fewer and fewer reasons to dismiss them. Formally, it is not written anywhere that the country has no right to return — there is no "lifelong" excommunication. There is a political context, and they are just going to shake it up.

Will there be dissatisfied people?

Well, this is a question from the category of "does the Brazilian national team drink coffee before the match?". Of course they will. Some people have already got used to the idea that Russian clubs and national teams exist in a parallel reality, which means they don't have to waste their nerves and resources on difficult meetings. In addition, there are politicians and functionaries who have built a whole strategy: "We will live even better without them." The conditional Polish or Swedish football union is not eager to curtsy. Especially considering that the population of several European countries welcomes the suspension. So there will be scandals, but football sometimes benefits from this: ratings, hype, a storm of posts on social networks. After all, sports loves hype.

When can we expect real movements? There's no quick fix, because it's not just "let's sign a piece of paper now, and you're welcome." Probably, first we will see signals: FIFA will propose to modify the regulations, soften the wording on collective responsibility and get a sanction from key continental confederations. For Infantino, it is important not just to announce the return of Russia — it is necessary that this step does not shake the unity of the football world. Or, at least, not to the point of disaster.

So if you're rubbing your hands enthusiastically right now and waiting for Russian clubs to get into the Champions League tomorrow, you shouldn't be flying in the clouds. It's going to be a long diplomatic game, where every move is calculated. Infantino clearly intends to bring Russia back into the fold: These are both political points and financial benefits. But reassuring UEFA and the "principled opponents" who have joined them will be no easier than agreeing with skeptics who believe that football without Russia has long found harmony.

However, the fact remains that the ice has broken. We discuss insiders, wait for statements, look at IFAB meetings and catch every slip of the tongue. And while they are pretending on the European sidelines that nothing special is happening, Infantino's words that "all countries of the world should play football" are becoming louder.

The heat will be fierce, and that's what always gives football its special edge. It would only be possible not to confuse insolence with rudeness. But we're talking about a beautiful game where scandals are the pepper, not the main ingredient. And if Russia is really close to a big comeback, then hold on tight: the inertia of this wave can turn a lot around. Football obviously won't be harmed by a new plot in which the grandees will face a "returned" opponent, and the media space will be overwhelmed with emotions.