Where to lay eggs: Russians were advised to diversify investments

Deposits remain the most reliable means for private investment, said Alexander Shokhin, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP). Nevertheless, he advised citizens not to forget about other ways to increase their personal funds.: company shares, long-term savings programs, and long-term life insurance. Izvestia experts discussed how useful the large-scale consolidation of Russians' funds in bank deposits is for the economy.

The money supply is growing

At the beginning of the year, account balances decreased, and we are talking about accounts of both individuals and legal entities, the ACRA rating agency calculated.

— At the same time, the inflow of funds is determined not only by the distribution of savings of the population, but also by payments that the population receives through salaries and various social benefits. The final choice of how to use the funds raised remains with the banks," says Valery Piven, head of the ACRA Financial Institution Ratings Group.

According to the expert, taking into account the decrease in demand for loans, a relatively large amount of funds will be deposited in bank accounts.

Interest is still at its peak

"Deposit rates remain high, which supports depositors' interest," says Anna Zemlyanova, chief analyst at Sovcombank.

The expert explains the relentless interest with expectations of a more rapid easing of the Bank of Russia's policy: "Depositors will strive to lock in attractive returns for the long term."

In conditions when the rate has remained unchanged for several months, and inflation has accelerated over this period, the rigidity of the PREP is decreasing, but still remains at a high level, says Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory of the Presidential Academy.

— The Central Bank does not publish data so quickly that it is possible to judge the latest changes in the volume of funds raised by individuals by credit institutions, but the latest data at the beginning of February 2025 indicate a slight decrease (-1% compared to January 1, 2025) in the volume of public funds raised. As of the first decade of March this year, the maximum level of interest rates in rubles in ten banks that attracted the largest amounts of deposits from individuals decreased by 1.5 percentage points from the second decade of December 2024, reaching 20.7%, while current inflation can be estimated at about 10.1%, that is, deposits are still an effective way of accumulation, — says the expert.

Downward trend

According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in January, individuals' funds in domestic banks decreased by 0.8% (mom) after a jump of 7.2% in December, which is explained by a seasonal factor: in December, bonuses and bonuses are paid at the end of the year and social payments are advanced, and in January people withdraw some funds from accounts and in general They spend a lot because of the long holidays, explains Igor Dodonov, an analyst at Finam Financial Group.

— There is no data from the Central Bank for February yet, however, apparently, the influx of public money into deposits has resumed. In particular, the leader of the Sber sector reported an increase in the funds of individuals last month by 3.7% (mom). Against the background of still high deposit rates, positive dynamics of funds on bank deposits is expected for the entire current year, although the growth rate is likely to slow down relative to 2024," the analyst commented.

Ideally, the profitability of the banking sector should be inferior to the marginality of business in the real sector of the economy, says Andrei Loboda, economist and communications director at BitRiver.

— It is likely that in the second half of this year we will witness a noticeable reversal in monetary policy. Ideally, the economy should aim to reduce the key rate to 5%, then the segment of small and medium—sized businesses will be in a state of investment boom," he said.

Macro Effects

The key rate has been held at extremely high levels for the past 9 months. However, at the moment, annual inflation has exceeded 10.08% (which is lower than the February figure of 10.11%), which is more than twice the target (4-5%). Thus, the effect of the key rate has finally begun to manifest itself.

According to Sovcombank analysts, high savings activity of the population will reduce inflationary pressure in the economy.

The funds that come to bank deposits are then used by banks to issue loans, Igor Dodonov claims.

"Although the lending situation is not the most favorable right now due to high loan rates and other factors, it is wrong to say that money on deposits is simply being withdrawn from the economy and does not work in it," the analyst concludes.

Now the demand for ruble-denominated financial instruments has increased qualitatively in Russia, the potential for weakening the dollar has not been exhausted, while the decades-long policy of a weak ruble against the background of a huge outflow of capital from the country does not yet inspire hope for the successful implementation of long-term investment ideas, Andrei Loboda outlined the situation.

"Only with an unambiguous key interest rate will credit funds flow into the real sector, increasing the capitalization of the Russian stock market, which is now underestimated by 1.5 — 2 times to the real market value," he summarizes.

The savings model of the population's behavior has a restraining effect on economic growth, as consumption slows down and businesses seek to adapt, says Vladimir Eremkin.

— At the same time, money deposited in banks works for the economy, and does not just end up in accounts, as banks seek to increase lending volumes in search of commercial benefits. Certain sectors of the Russian economy are in high demand for borrowed funds for development. The government has also been a major borrower of banks lately," the analyst lists.

In his opinion, the main threat of increased price pressure has not gone away and poses serious risks to the country's economy.

"The unwinding of the inflationary spiral will do much more harm than it can benefit from a slight increase in GDP growth or domestic consumption while continuing a large—scale stimulating policy," Eremkin said.

Izvestia sent a request about the usefulness of a high key rate for the economy to ministries and departments, as well as to Russian banks. The Ministry of Finance stated that the issue is solely within the competence of the Bank of Russia. Representatives of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation did not respond. Representatives of the banking sector also did not respond to requests from Izvestia.