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Third-party cooperation: what to expect from the next negotiations between Russia and the United States
On March 24, the delegations of the Russian Federation and the United States will meet in Riyadh for talks in the format of consultations. The parties will discuss the establishment of safety of navigation in the Black Sea and the Ukrainian settlement. The Russian delegation is represented by Senator Grigory Karasin and advisor to the head of the FSB Sergey Beseda. The Kremlin notes that the parties will have to work very seriously and painstakingly, taking into account many nuances and issues. Thus, despite the mutual agreement of Moscow and Kiev to suspend strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to violate the ceasefire. Russia's main condition for achieving peace has also not been fulfilled: neither the United States nor Europe has stopped supplying weapons to Kiev yet. Meanwhile, negotiations between the US and Ukrainian delegations took place in Riyadh the day before. How the process of peaceful settlement of the conflict will develop further is in the Izvestia article.
New negotiations between Russia and the United States begin in Riyadh
The talks on March 24 in Riyadh will be the next step in Moscow and Washington's attempts to find common ground on the issue of resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
"There is no need to flatter yourself, there is a very serious and painstaking work ahead. We will have to dive into the details. I would like to recall the statements of President Putin, where he said that he supports the idea of a cease-fire. But there are nuances and questions here that we will have to find answers to together," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.
The Russian delegation, headed by Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, and Sergei Beseda, adviser to the FSB Director, was formed personally by Vladimir Putin. As Dmitry Peskov emphasized, these are "the most experienced negotiators with a wealth of experience in such work," designed to best represent Russia in the negotiations. First of all, the parties will discuss the possibility of resuming the Black Sea initiative. Here, as the Kremlin representative noted, there are "a huge number of nuances" and "negotiations are going to be difficult."
Grigory Karasin, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs
Some details of the upcoming negotiations were revealed by Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz. According to him, after discussing the Black Sea initiative, the parties will "talk about the line of control, which is actually the line of combat contact." "It also touches on details regarding the verification mechanisms (of the cease-fire. — Ed.), peacemaking, freezing the lines where they are now. And then, of course, a wider and more permanent peace," he said.
The day before, on the evening of March 23, negotiations between the US and Ukrainian delegations started in Riyadh. According to The New York Times and Reuters, the meeting is dedicated to working out the details of a 30-day cease-fire on energy facilities and the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. A Ukrainian official told reporters that representatives of Kiev may additionally meet with the American delegation after its talks with the Russian side "depending on progress." Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov clarified that the parties will work out "a number of complex technical issues" and the Ukrainian delegation includes both energy experts and representatives of the Navy and Air Force. Pavel Palisa, deputy head of Zelensky's office, said after the meeting that the Ukrainian delegation would not meet with the Russian delegation in Riyadh.
Earlier, the US president's special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, explained: in Riyadh, the United States will try to hold "indirect talks" between Russia and Ukraine through shuttle diplomacy.
"There, both sides will be in separate rooms, and, in fact, you go to one side and ask: "What are your conditions?" Then you go to the other side and ask the same thing," he says.
Earlier, American media reported that Kellogg was suspended from high-level talks, allegedly at the request of the Russian side. However, the Kremlin did not confirm this information.
What does Russia expect from negotiations with the United States
Grigory Karasin, who for many years oversaw relations with the CIS countries at the Russian Foreign Ministry, and Sergey Beseda, whose work is related to coordinating Russia's participation in international formats (SCO, BRICS, G20), are figures whose experience goes beyond public diplomacy. The latter, according to Kirill Budanov, the head of Ukrainian intelligence (listed as a terrorist and extremist in Russia), "caused Kiev a lot of problems," which underscores its role in security issues. The composition of the delegation indicates Moscow's desire to combine diplomatic flexibility with rigid pragmatism.
— It is worth waiting for the continuation of the dialogue. Given the large number of details and nuances, the peace process will not be fast, and many rounds of consultations will be required. In the upcoming round, the main issues include the parameters of the truce, possible mechanisms for its verification, and the agenda for subsequent rounds. In addition, Russian and American negotiators will continue to work on the economic dossier — to formulate the terms and forms of bilateral cooperation," Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Candidate of Political Sciences, told Izvestia.
The format of the consultations was agreed upon during a telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on March 18. Then the leaders agreed on a mutual ban on strikes on energy facilities for Russia and Ukraine and an exchange of prisoners (175 for 175), which took place the very next day. However, Kiev, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, almost immediately violated the agreement: on March 19, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked an oil transshipment facility in the Kuban, and later a UAV attack on the Saratov region took place. On March 21, Ukrainians blew up the Sudzha gas measuring station in the Kursk region, through which 40 million cubic meters of gas were pumped to Europe every day. This once again became a demonstration of Ukraine's unwillingness to follow the agreements.
"Kiev is the obvious culprit of the explosion," Dmitry Peskov said, stressing that the Russian Armed Forces continue to observe the truce, despite the actions of the enemy.
Vladimir Putin's press secretary confirmed that Kiev's failure to comply with the agreements could be the reason for another conversation between the leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States.
"The Presidents confirmed their intention to continue contacts if necessary. In addition, you know, contacts have been established between the teams," he said, without ruling out that there may have been other informal contacts between Putin and Trump in recent months.
The significance of the Black Sea deal
The Black Sea Initiative, concluded in July 2022 with the mediation of the United Nations, remains the central topic of negotiations. This is not only about the safe export of grain, but also about guarantees of navigation in the Black Sea. Regarding this deal, "we have fulfilled our obligations, but the obligations towards us have not been fulfilled," Peskov stressed. As Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov noted, the parties will discuss the revival of the initiative, but its implementation requires the elimination of key problems — Ukraine's use of trade corridors for the transportation of weapons and the lack of ship inspection procedures.
— In relation to Russia, the initiative was violated in the most gross way — from launching unmanned boats to more serious violations. Actually, it has long been not about grain for the hungry, but rather about Turkey's big earnings. It is difficult to change where there is no complete control of the water area on our part. So there will be compromises," Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor at the HSE Department of Politics and Management, told Izvestia.
The Black Sea initiative is really important because Turkey is indirectly returning to the negotiation process. On the one hand, this complicates the initial design and slows down the coordination of details. On the other hand, its resumption shows that Washington and Moscow, as opposed to the European coalition of supporters of the war, are ready to bring together constructive players. There are two things that need to be changed in the Black Sea initiative — the direction of grain supplies and the opportunity for Ukraine to transport weapons under the guise of peaceful goods, Ivan Loshkarev summed up.
The United States, in turn, continues to demonstrate a pragmatic, flexible and generally positive approach to Russia. In particular, Washington agreed to exclude Hungary from sanctions when paying for Russian gas. Moreover, representatives of the United States have practically withdrawn from participating in groups monitoring compliance with sanctions against Moscow. This is reported by Western media with reference to European officials.
Normalization of relations between Moscow and Washington is also possible through economic interests. The United States is interested in access to energy to stimulate production, while Russia is interested in lifting restrictions. For example, the potential restoration of Nord Streams, which is being reported in the media, could form the basis of a deal.
Prospects for a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine
The main challenge of the negotiations is Kiev's negotiability. Ukraine, despite participating in prisoner exchanges, continues to provoke, as evidenced by the bombing of the Suji and the recent attempted attacks on the Kursk nuclear power plant, which resulted in damage to the nuclear waste storage facility. According to Moscow, these actions are aimed at disrupting the peace initiatives of the US president.
"A paradoxical situation is being created now when we have Russian-American agreements or contacts, but their implementation does not depend on our relations,— Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at ISKRAN, told Izvestia.
At the same time, Washington, which until recently was considered a key ally of Kiev, finds itself in a difficult position. On the one hand, the Trump administration is interested in a quick settlement in order to present it as a foreign policy success. On the other hand, a complete refusal to support Ukraine threatens to lose face. All this does not allow the United States to act more decisively on the issue of pressure on Kiev.
For Moscow, as Vladimir Putin said earlier, the key condition for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine remains the cessation of Western arms supplies to Kiev. As you know, after a short pause following the scandalous meeting between Zelensky and Trump in the Oval Office on February 28, the supply of American weapons to Kiev resumed by mid-March. According to Bloomberg, the White House has not yet agreed to limit arms supplies to Kiev in the context of a future truce agreement.
The situation is also complicated by the actions of individual European countries, which insist on increasing Kiev's military potential to strengthen its negotiating positions. However, despite the bellicose rhetoric, the EU has not yet reached a consensus either on a new military package for Ukraine or on sending peacekeepers to its territory.
Europe is in a difficult situation today, because it used to be in Uncle Sam's bosom, and now there is a new sheriff in the city," Dmitry Peskov says ironically: "And the new sheriff tells them: 'Guys, I will do everything, but you pay, raise defense spending to 5% and then we will talk.'". According to him, Europe is coming out of the current situation "aggressively" and "militarizing itself."
The latest example: the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense announced yesterday that the country, together with Latvia and Estonia, is discussing plans to strengthen the border with Russia and Belarus with several layers of fortifications, including anti-personnel and anti-tank mines.
Meanwhile, Washington is skeptical about Europe's concerns about the "Russian threat." On March 23, Trump's special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, expressed doubt that Russia "wants to take over the whole of Europe."
"In this sense, I just take Putin's word for it. And I think the Europeans are starting to come to that belief, too," he told Fox News.
Russian President Vladimir Putin
The negotiations in Riyadh are still the beginning of a long journey. Even with the successful coordination of the details of the Black Sea initiative, the key issue lies in Ukraine's position.: Is she ready to stop provocations and fulfill the conditions? So far, Kiev's actions suggest the opposite. Europe is demonstrating its inability to become a guarantor of peace, while the United States, balancing pragmatism and pressure on the parties to the conflict, risks getting bogged down in endless rounds of negotiations.
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