Mayoral feeling: Turkey is preparing for new protests after the arrest of the head of Istanbul

The Turkish authorities may soften the measure of restraint for Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu if the unrest intensifies, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. However, the protests are unlikely to lead to destabilization in the country, even though on March 23 the Istanbul court decided to send the head of the city under arrest. Earlier, Imamoglu was taken into custody on suspicion of corruption and terrorism. The detention of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political opponent has provoked protests that have been going on for several days - more than 300 of their participants have already been detained. In response to the decision on his arrest, the mayor called on supporters to demonstrate again. About what the rallies in Turkey can lead to and how the country's authorities react to them — in the Izvestia article.

Mass protests in Turkey

Amid opposition protests following the detention of Ekrem Imamoglu, one of the main political rivals of the current Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, an Istanbul court ruled on March 23 to arrest an official in a corruption case. The request for his arrest in the framework of the terrorism case was rejected. It is known that more than 90 people are currently being investigated in this case.

Imamoglu stated on social media that he was not going to give up. He described the events as a "coup against democracy" and called on "the nation to fight for rights with a sense of responsibility," and his supporters to vote in the primaries of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), of which he is a member. The vote should determine the party's candidate for the 2028 presidential election. It is possible that they may take place ahead of schedule in 2027.

Imamoglu was detained on March 19 on charges of bribery and links with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which is recognized as a terrorist organization in Turkey. After that, mass protests began in the country - according to a number of media reports, more than half a million people took to the streets of Istanbul on the night of March 23. At some point, they ended in clashes with the police, who were forced to use pepper gas and water cannons against the protesters. To date, law enforcement forces have detained more than 300 protesters. On March 21, 16 policemen were injured in Istanbul. At the last rally, according to media reports, one of the law enforcement officers was doused with acid.

After the protests began, the Russian Embassy in Turkey urged Russian citizens to avoid crowded places. On March 21, the diplomatic mission informed Izvestia that so far it had not received any requests from the Russians. The Kremlin called what was happening an internal affair of Ankara, stressing that the protests could not be a reason for conversations between the leaders of the two countries.

The split in Turkish society will increase, but protest actions are unlikely to become so widespread as to destabilize the situation in the country as a whole, Turkish political analyst Iqbal Durre told Izvestia.

— Firstly, the authorities have already taken very serious harsh measures. Secondly, there is no reason for the protesters to escalate the situation, which is currently playing into their hands. But while the mayor is in prison, the actions will continue on a local scale. Everyone will be waiting for the trial to understand what arguments and evidence the state has. I think the authorities have been preparing for a long time and they have a serious compromise in their hands," he added.

Does the Turkish opposition have any chances

According to the polls, Imamoglu had a chance to become Erdogan's main opponent in the elections. Now, regardless of the outcome of the investigation, it will be difficult for the mayor to nominate his candidacy — after a request from the Prosecutor General's Office of the Republic of Turkey, Istanbul University canceled his diploma, and only people with higher education can run for the post of head of state. Moreover, he was expectedly suspended from his duties as head of the city.

The expert did not rule out that the authorities may release Imamoglu under house arrest in the future in order to "calm the protest," but his return to the post of mayor of Istanbul in the near future is unlikely.

— Against the background of these events, his popularity is growing rapidly. We should not forget that Erdogan himself went the same way in his time. He was also the mayor of Istanbul, and he was also tried then. That is, on the one hand, it is possible that his career will be ended. On the other hand, if he manages to somehow get out of this mess, his chances of winning the election will be great. But in my opinion, the first scenario is more likely, that is, he will not be allowed to run, because he can be a serious competitor," the political scientist noted.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking to his supporters on Saturday, accused the opposition of "street terror" and attempts to split the Turkish people. The head of Turkey separately addressed the chairman of the CHP, Ozgur Ozel, urging him "not to create chaos on the streets of Istanbul."

"The days when the direction of politics and justice was determined by street terrorism are a thing of the past along with old Turkey," the head of state added.

According to Ozel, the rallies are attended not only by supporters of the CHP, but also by other parties who are unhappy with attempts to use justice as a tool of political struggle. At the same time, the authorities' reaction to the actions of the protesters cannot yet be called as harsh as possible, according to Yashar Niyazbayev, an expert on Turkey.

"They're trying to stop the protesters, but they're doing it with shields and their hands, without batons or violence. The biggest use is pepper gas and water cannons. Given the resonance, the protests will be large-scale. And when so many people come out on the street, they can behave unpredictably, there may be some provocations. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the response measures of the authorities," the source explained to Izvestia.

The expert recalled that in 2013, the protests lasted about three months. Then the reason was the decision of the Istanbul authorities to cut down Gezi Park in Taksim district and build a shopping and entertainment complex in its place. The protesters were supported by half of the country's provinces and Turks living in European countries. As a result, the demonstrations escalated into a wave of protests against the government's policies.

The country's authorities see an unprecedented reaction from citizens and may try to reduce the heat by relaxing Imamoglu's measure of restraint, says Yashar Niyazbayev.

— They can release him under house arrest and take a written undertaking not to leave. This will greatly mitigate the reaction. Another thing is that Erdogan also has someone to protect. If it comes to attempts to change power, there is a certain backbone that will stick to Erdogan and take to the streets," the political scientist believes.

In any case, the authorities now have to take into account the growing popularity of the opposition. It is worth recalling that following the results of the local government elections in March 2024, the CHP beat the ruling Justice and Development Party for the first time in 20 years. Then the opposition mayors of major cities — Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir — retained their posts. After that, Erdogan hosted the head of the CHP, Ozgur Ozel, for the first time in eight years. Following the conversation, the Turkish leader stated that he wanted to begin the process of "softening policy" and was ready to pay a return visit.