Timely action: the business will begin to actively enter the stock exchange at the end of 2025

Today, Russian companies face extremely high interest rates, limited access to loans, and uncertainty in foreign exchange settlements. However, there are options to raise money. One of them is the release of the CFA, tax incentives for the development of which are being discussed by the authorities. Experts predict that companies will actively launch IPOs in the fall of this year. Some are considering more exotic ways, such as loans in Belarus. Izvestia figured out which trends companies should focus on in the near future.

Where to get money with a key 21% and sanctions

How companies work in the new realities, where to get money from and which trends to focus on — all these topics were discussed on March 20 at the conference "CFO DAY: Trends. Cases. Discussions", organized by T-Business for financial directors of companies representing medium and large businesses.

The level of uncertainty has increased significantly: it is now easier to make a forecast for five years ahead than for 12 months, Anton Malkov, head of the Capital Markets department at T-Bank, said in a conversation with Izvestia. For example, it is extremely difficult to predict the dollar exchange rate in the near future. Therefore, the expert believes, businesses should take into account global trends — the clustering of the world, uneven demographic development, and the introduction of AI. At the same time, it's worth thinking in scenario analyses — make two or three and act based on these scenarios.

One of the important growth areas in corporate finance management in the new market is, for example, the CFA, said Alexander Sinyavsky, Financial Director of Whoosh, at the session. This segment is actively developing now, Pavel Sidorkin, Director of Products at Atomize, agreed. An important advantage of this segment is that the release of digital financial assets is much faster than the classical ones. And that is why such a tool is more flexible, the expert emphasized.

The volume of this market has already exceeded half a trillion. At the same time, the disadvantage of the CFA is that for many it is still a curiosity, Pavel Sidorkin noted. In addition, the market is highly fragmented. Currently, there are 14 operators operating in this segment, and each of them is a "well," the expert explained. All transactions and products are locked within a single operator. The regulator's idea is to simplify the entry point for customers and expand liquidity, but there are no such business cases yet.

At the moment, the lack of tax benefits for CFAs is a pain for issuers, said Anton Malkov from T—Bank. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance has already begun to take the first steps to remove these restrictions, Pavel Sidorkin from Atomize believes.

Back in December, the head of the State Duma Committee on the financial market admitted that the CFA should be included in the subsidy program and create tax incentives for the development of this market. Companies can also use the CFA to raise funds for the structural restructuring of the economy, he noted in an interview with Izvestia.

When can the stock market capitalization double?

Corporate finance management in the new market requires more flexibility and diversification, says Fyodor Sidorov, founder of the School of Practical Investment. He added: many companies are now facing high interest rates, limited credit opportunities, and uncertainty in foreign exchange settlements. The impact of government regulation and sanctions pressure have increased compared to previous years. And, as bank loans for businesses become less accessible, the private capital and bond markets are becoming important.

The market has changed a lot in 2022. According to Anton Malkov, in December 2022, it was extremely difficult to collect demand for an IPO. However, those who made such a decision then were able to break away from the competition. Like, for example, Whoosh. At CFO DAY, a representative of the company told where they manage to find funds in the current difficult conditions. At a rate of 21%, it is really difficult to invest in investment projects, Alexander Sinyavsky from Whoosh noted at the session. However, the company continues to grow at a large, albeit slower pace. To reduce the cost of financing, we considered convertible bonds and the possibility of financing in Belarus and other countries at lower rates, financing in currency with a reversal in rubles through financial instruments. There is no single magic solution, but there are opportunities to reduce the cost of financing, and finance directors should actively look for them in the current conditions, the expert concluded.

Now, even in the face of a sharp rate hike and market correction, some companies have begun to consider the option of preparing to enter the stock exchange, Anton Malkov added. The cycle of preparation for such transactions is about four to five months. Therefore, progress should be expected by autumn, the expert believes.

There is an important problem in the market right now, which is the lack of sub—funds within large funds that could invest in small companies, Anton Malkov said. The Ministry of Finance wants to develop the market, he stressed, and this issue needs to be resolved, discussions should be held with management companies in order to create buyers.

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Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin set a goal to double the capitalization of the Russian stock market by 2030. It should amount to 66% of the country's GDP.

— We are contributing to the goal of doubling the stock market, with the largest number of IPOs on the market going through our hands from 2022 to 2024. Yes, 66% is a lot, and a high rate at the moment does not help, but we need to strive for this goal," Anton Malkov told Izvestia.

The plans are really ambitious, Fyodor Sidorov from the School of Practical Investment agrees. According to the expert, at the end of 2023, the stock market capitalization was about 50 trillion rubles. To reach 100 trillion by 2030, the market must grow by 10-12% annually, he believes.

There is a chance that by the end of 2025, the Central Bank's key rate will begin to decline, says Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. This means that by this time we can expect an increase in the number of initial public offerings on the Moscow Stock Exchange.

Initial public offerings of shares allow issuers, including small companies, to attract non-refundable capital by issuing and selling new shares without increasing the debt burden, the expert recalled. In 2026, Russia can expect an IPO boom, Natalia Milchakova predicts. Therefore, it is quite possible to expect a doubling of the stock market by 2032-2035.