The economist did not rule out a reduction in the key rate in June 2025.

The Central Bank of Russia has temporarily suspended key rate changes due to the observed positive processes, primarily of a geopolitical nature. Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the HSE Center for Economic Research and Economic Analysis, noted in an interview with Izvestia on March 21 that a reduction in the key rate is expected in June 2025.

"The Central Bank has taken a break because more or less positive processes are underway. And I would put the geopolitical process first, not the economic one, since there is positive rhetoric about the geopolitical news regarding Russia and the United States. Of course, no one will lift the sanctions, but minimizing or making them "dormant" is likely to be the case," the expert noted.

He also stressed that such changes can occur not only from the United States, but also from Europe.

"Europe, as a rule, geopolitically, despite all its rhetoric, follows the United States. But this geopolitical risk puts pressure on economic events," the economist added.

According to him, a clear signal has been received that the situation is moving towards improvement.

"Most likely, at the beginning of the second half of the year, I think that the April rate will remain at the same level as the May rate. And starting around the beginning of June, the rate cut will begin," the expert predicts.

A lot will depend on the geopolitical situation, the source believes.

"The strengthening of the ruble and the rate movement are largely determined by geopolitical rhetoric. So far, the trend seems to be positive, but it is impossible to make forecasts here," Ostapkovich summed up.

Deposit sentiment: average deposit rates dropped below 20%

What does this say about the Central Bank's decisions on the key issue and is it worth addressing the savings issue now?

Earlier in the day, the regulator decided to maintain the current key rate level at 21%. The Central Bank noted that the growth of domestic demand continues to outpace the possibilities of expanding the supply of goods and services. According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the current monetary policy, inflation will decrease to 7-8% in 2025, return to 4% in 2026 and will remain at the target level in the future.