The distance is finite: how can the Russian Armed Forces respond to Ukraine's long-range developments

The arsenal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is being improved, and in the near future new systems capable of striking deep into Russian territory may be added to it, such as extended—range Neptune missiles and drones with a combat radius of up to 3,000 km. The Kiev authorities announced their imminent deployment. Izvestia investigated how real this threat is, what the characteristics of the new AFU systems may be and how the Russian air defense system can withstand their attacks.

Air defense capabilities

There is a possibility that one of the recent attacks on oil and gas sector enterprises in Russia involved a new Ukrainian rocket, which is still conventionally called the "long Neptune". The strike was carried out at an oil refinery in Tuapse, which is located at a distance of more than 550 km from the line of contact in the zone of its own. It was already mentioned earlier about this product: not so long ago, the Ukrainian leadership announced that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had its own missile with a range of up to 1 thousand km.

And on March 19, Kiev announced that it had tested an attack drone with a range of 3 thousand km. The novelty was presented by Zelensky with appropriate pathos: "There is good news regarding long-range drones. Our drone has been tested for three thousand kilometers." The first mention of long-range kamikaze drones with a range of 3,000 km appeared in April 2024.

The S-400 air defense system division deployed in Sevastopol at Cape Fiolent

Photo: RIA Novosti/Alexey Malgavko

How can the Russian army respond to new Ukrainian developments? The S-300 air defense systems of the latest modifications, the S-400, the Buk-M3, and even more so the Pantsiri can successfully work for such purposes. In addition, cruise missiles can be detected by radars of long-range radar detection aircraft such as the A-50 and long-range interceptors such as the MiG-31, which were created just to repel massive attacks by such weapons on the territory of the USSR. The question now, apparently, is that with the advent of such strike systems in the arsenal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is necessary to supplement the air defense systems of the border regions with the appropriate aviation segment. This is possible due to the transfer of forces and assets from other directions, as well as by supplementing MiGs with Su-35S and Su-57 aircraft. And ideally, of course, it is necessary to close all possible routes of penetration into Russian territory and begin destroying military facilities that are being created by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use these strike systems. History is developing in a spiral, and the Soviet air defense system has already solved the problem of destroying long-range cruise missiles. He will decide today.

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What is the Neptune rocket?

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have exhausted their reserves of Western long-range missiles and are now trying to replace them with their own developments. The question is whether the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is capable of this.

The history of the Ukrainian Neptune missiles has its roots in the Soviet past. The cooperation of defense enterprises, which existed during the Soviet era, continued to operate until relatively recently. Until 2014, Ukrainian partners supplied the Russian Armed Forces with control systems and homing heads for various missile systems, engines for ships and helicopters, components and assemblies for a wide variety of military equipment. Accordingly, Ukraine had not only samples of weapons and military equipment from the Soviet era, but also samples of equipment from the 2000s, as well as technical documentation, drawings and operating manuals, etc. The economic and production potential of Ukraine allowed the production of space launch vehicles - not without the participation of the Russian military—industrial complex, but it was possible. Ukraine was able to recreate and start production of some less grandiose missile systems back then.

The X-35 subsonic anti-ship missile is mounted on a MiG-29K carrier aircraft. The year 1998

Photo: TASS/Alexey Mikheev

Kiev had a complete set of documentation on the Soviet and Russian X-35 missiles. Moreover, back in the early 2000s, the Kiev Luch design Bureau supplied a reference sample of the 78 product (X-35 missiles). The Luch Design Bureau subsequently became the parent company for the creation of the Ukrainian RK-360MC Neptun complex, which was tested in 2019 and It was adopted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2020.

Rocket launch from the Ukrainian RK-360MTS Neptun complex

Photo: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

The Neptune missile is a development of the Soviet X-35 with a range of at least 280 km. Next, work began on creating a longer-range version with an upgraded guidance system, which received a satellite navigation unit and is now mainly designed not to destroy ships, but to strike ground targets. Apparently, the missile has entered military tests and is beginning to be used in combat operations. The question is whether the military-industrial complex of Ukraine will be able to produce such missiles in any significant quantities.

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What is a drone with a flight range of 3 thousand km?

When the new drone with a range of 3,000 km was announced, most analysts concluded that it was a light-engine aircraft converted into a drone, which could be equipped with additional tanks and a simplified satellite navigation system. This is really the simplest solution.

Another option for how the Ukrainian Armed Forces could receive a device with a range of 3,000 km is the completion of work on the Sokol—300 long-range reconnaissance drone and the conversion of the monitoring device into a kamikaze drone. Work on the long-range UAV was carried out by the Luch Design Bureau starting in 2019, and in theory it could fly about 3 thousand km using the highly economical Austrian Rotax 914 engine. The Sokol-300 is a fairly large aircraft with a wingspan of 14 m, which makes it a fairly easy target for air defense. It is also distinguished from other kamikaze drones by its relatively high probable cost.

Presentation in Kiev of the Sokol-300 reconnaissance and attack drone, developed by the Luch Design Bureau. 2020

Photo: TASS/EPA/SERGEY DOLZHENKO

The third and fourth variants of the Zelensky long-range drone are analogues of the Russian Geran-2 piston rocket and the classic X-55 cruise missile. Analogues of the Geranium have already been seen in eyewitness footage, and in general, such a drone has shown the highest effectiveness in long-range strikes against Ukrainian military installations, which could lead to an attempt to reverse engineer a successful solution in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The X-55 cruise missiles were produced in Soviet times in Kharkov, and Ukraine had a full range of technologies for the production of such a product. By simplifying the design and reducing the warhead, a long-range modification could well have been created.